December 31, 2022, the 121st original article.
2022 is a very special year. Too many things have happened in this year. Everyone will have their own memory points. I want to review my own memory points and thoughts.
1. Regarding the epidemic.
html During the 2003 epidemic, the national level protected us too much. The precise prevention and control strategy is excellent. In the future, the epidemic has entered a new stage. Each of us is the first person responsible for health and cannot relax!
2, industry trends.
I have been working in the apparel industry for a long time, mainly in brand management. Later I went to Alibaba and now I am engaged in FMCG cosmetics. In the past two years, we have gone from 0 to 1 and become a cutting-edge beauty brand. When reviewing the industry trends in 2022, in terms of channels, we have to mention , Douyin, and . Douyin’s growth rate is indeed fast, and the growth rate of is higher than that of . It is basically a double-digit growth rate every month. Many clothing and cosmetics brands are making efforts in Douyin, especially international brands. The speed of settling in and entering the game is particularly fast, and Douyin has become a red sea.
has a few thoughts about Douyin. Douyin is indeed a comprehensive platform based on content as its core. You can say that Douyin is the largest media platform, and you can also say that Douyin is the largest information platform. In short, it will only get bigger and bigger.
The current Douyin e-commerce company is essentially a sales logic with live streaming as its core. In other words, Douyin’s left hand is content and its right hand is e-commerce. The two complement each other and no one can live without the other. The future trend of content will basically develop under the macro-control of and on the Douyin platform. In four quarters of the year, Douyin will promote a hot content account in each quarter to drive the overall volume of Douyin, which is at a social level.
Looking at Douyin e-commerce, this business will be the main source of income for Douyin Group in the future. If it wants to be listed in the future, the e-commerce business must be vigorously developed. Of course, the development of e-commerce business must be supported. It is said that Douyin insiders said that the future content e-commerce push ratio is 4:1, or 3:1.
What is the latest news on Douyin? I just want to be a global hobby e-commerce company. What do you mean? That is, content, live broadcast, talent, mall, and membership e-commerce are all done, and each one must be the best in the country. Especially Douyin Mall, Douyin has allocated a lot of manpower and material resources internally to do it. Anyone who knows it knows that the mall is a shelf e-commerce, and its business efficiency is the highest. The financial data performance of the Tmall mall in the past proves this.
Dabo has heard that it has begun to decline in recent quarters, so Douyin will launch Daren Stores in 2023 to re-increase the business scale of Daren. However, on the other hand, the development of Daren will still be regulated by the Douyin platform. The main reason is that Douyin will not let one Daren dominate, otherwise it will be uncontrollable. You will find that this popular account may not be popular next month. The future development of talents will also be a red sea, but interesting and high-quality content-based talents will still stand out. The
brand will develop better and better on Douyin, and white brands will gradually withdraw from the stage of history. It is very similar to the development of Taobao back then. Starting from white brands, developing Douyin brands (Taobao brands), then supporting domestic big brands, and finally introducing big international brands, the paths are almost the same. The monitoring and supervision of white brands will become more and more strict. For example, the experience score and word-of-mouth score launched by Douyin have respectively increased the service requirements of Douyin stores and Douyin accounts. The requirements for products, customer service, and logistics will be very high. If these two scores are too low, Douyin will limit the flow.
In addition, some ecological companies surrounding Douyin will get better and better, such as Douyin's DP (Douyin broadcasting) service provider. As long as traditional companies do not know how to do Douyin, they will still choose to outsource Douyin's live broadcast team, which will give many DP service providers business opportunities.
Tmall's 2022, as Lao Xiao said, this year is "fixed". Many friends say that it actually feels like "lying down", but I think that when the time is not right, it is better to rest and recuperate, and wait until the time comes before working hard again. At present, I think Tmall is the largest cashier on the Internet, and the shopping experience is still top-notch. Many users still have a strong Taobao and Tmall mentality. When buying things, they go to Taobao to search. Therefore, opening a Tmall or Taobao store is still a must for brands. For Alibaba in 2023, Lao Xiao gave the word "advance". My understanding is that we must exert all our efforts to counterattack Douyin in an all-round way, and we will work hard to develop content e-commerce and live broadcast e-commerce. When my friend and I talked about this, I said that maybe the future will really be: "Tmall becomes Douyin, Douyin becomes Tmall."
Jingdong After Brother Dong scolded "executives use PPT to deceive people", the overall team combat effectiveness suddenly improved a lot. If JD.com was laughed at by friends as a state-owned enterprise, then JD.com is now a struggling private enterprise . Dong Ge said that Jingdong must return to the five elements of business essence, which are products, prices, services, costs, and efficiency. Products are the supply of a platform, and the supply must be rich and advantageous. The price is a matter of shopping mentality, and it must not be more expensive than on friend merchants’ platforms. The service is divided into to c and to b, and the service experience must be good. Cost refers to the control of various fixed costs, which must be reduced. Efficiency is JD.com’s core competitiveness, which is the speed of logistics.
Pinduoduo is very powerful in 2022. The user growth rate and profit performance are the most eye-catching among several platforms. For example, in the recent Q3, Pinduoduo’s quarterly revenue was 35.504 billion yuan, increased by 65% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.589 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 546. %, Pinduoduo has been profitable for 6 consecutive quarters, which shows that the consumption power is still there, but because people's wallets are tight, consumption has been downgraded a lot. In addition, I also found that Pinduoduo's overall shopping experience is much better, and the business format is also much better. Many genuine big brands have settled in, and they have basically opened flagship stores and specialty stores. In the future, Pinduoduo will indeed be a good platform for doing business for brands.
Dewu is a wonderful platform. Its consumption power is really high, and there is basically no need for promotion. This is related to its demographic positioning. Most of them are young people who buy sneakers. They have high consumption power and their aesthetics are online. As long as your product is unique and interesting and meets the positioning of young people, Dewu platform can definitely do it.
Xiaohongshu is not an e-commerce-based platform, but the focus of the content is very good, which is a guide to a better life. This direction fits well with the life concepts of the new generation of young people. I think this vertically focused content platform will go a long way, as long as nothing goes wrong.
B station also focuses on the segmented content track, and the user stickiness is particularly high. Recently, the " three-body " animation has been released, which has attracted a large number of new customers. In the future, B station will continue to develop vertical content fields such as science fiction, games, and animation, and I feel that it will become more and more stable.
Well, I won’t share the other apps one by one. The same principle applies. It must be focused + differentiated to be successful.
3, work and life.
Work in 2022 will be particularly difficult. At least half of the year will be spent under epidemic control. Online and home working have become the norm. Many people's work has become more and more refined, because business is not easy to do, so they have to be more detailed. Some friends have lost their jobs. It is indeed difficult. Some are even middle-aged and unemployed. It should be better in 2023 and there will be more job opportunities than in 2022. Why? Because after the economy recovers, many companies will also get better. After it gets better, the demand for recruiting talents will increase.In the future, the best way for us ordinary people to work is to refine our work and find opportunities in the details. We will no longer chase the trend. Many external dividends are disappearing, such as demographic dividend , content dividend, live broadcast dividend, etc. Recently, I was talking with my colleagues about what refined operations are. I think the essence is multiple methodologies for multiple business models. A big entrepreneur once told me, what is the most powerful thing about entrepreneurial success? There are many methodologies. If you master these methodologies, your probability of success will be much higher.
Our lives have gone through 2022, and everyone’s greatest feeling is the need for freedom! We need freedom in our lives! No matter what you have experienced, you still have to move forward in life. There is a blogger I like very much called Jiubian. He recently wrote an article about the epidemic, which means that the epidemic will definitely insist on opening up. In the future life, you have to be responsible for yourself, and you can only move forward!
4, economical.
The topic of economy is a big one. I am definitely not qualified to comment, but I can write some of my own thoughts. Everyone knows that the troika of GDP is investment, export, and consumption. Let’s look at them one by one.
Investment will be cold in 2022. We all know this, but it does not mean that investors have no money. My understanding is that if they have money but no good projects, investors have returned to rationality and will consider whether the project has the ability to continue to make profits and whether it has core competitiveness. In this case, investors in 2023 will only be more cautious. So what about the investment targets, those cutting-edge companies? They will also pay more attention to the essence of business, continue to create value, and continue to make profits, which will create a better business environment. If consumption recovers, the operating conditions of many small and medium-sized companies pick up, and many entrepreneurs become active, then the investment field will become active again and money will flow.
Export has always been our country's specialty. According to the data I learned, in US dollars, my country's total import and export value in the first 10 months was US$5.26 trillion, an increase of 7.7%. Among them, exports were US$2.99 trillion, an increase of 11.1%; imports were US$2.27 trillion, an increase of 3.5%; the trade surplus was US$5,727.7 billion, an increase of 43.8%. Why so fierce? Because our country’s complete industrial system cannot be replaced by other neighboring Asian countries, the U.S. blockade is useless and cannot circumvent us.
In terms of consumption, the message from the recent Politburo meeting is very clear, that is, efforts should be made to develop domestic demand, which is domestic consumption. The country will definitely stimulate the consumption power of the people from all aspects, so there will be more opportunities. When doing business, you must seize the opportunity. The future is definitely uncertain, but we can only move forward and believe that our country will get better and better. After all, the greatest strength of mankind comes from the power of hope.
5, study.
I read 40 books in 2022. Several of them impressed me deeply and benefited me a lot. Let me share them. For example, "The Navarre Book", this book helped me understand what luck is, how to productize myself, and how to achieve success. For example, "The Economics of Understanding the World", this book allowed me to systematically understand what macroeconomics, microeconomics, and are all about. I learned the eight-character motto of "brainwash demand and control supply." I also read "Underlying Logic" and I learned that methodology = underlying logic + environment variables. There is also the "Feynman Learning Method". I know how to study efficiently, which is to make good use of the five steps taught by Feynman. There are many, many excellent books. You can take a look at some of the reading notes I wrote in the past. I think every book is great, and there is no distinction between high and low.
6. Entrepreneurs’ remarks.
In 2022, many entrepreneurs said a lot of interesting things, such as Ren Zhengfei 's "coldness", Liu Qiangdong "executives use PPT to deceive people", Ma Huateng " you can't survive anymore, you can still play basketball casually on weekends" and so on.There are actually many interpretations of why these powerful people spoke and the meaning behind their speeches, but what remains the same is that times are difficult and the company is encountering difficulties. Yes, 2022 will be a difficult year for many large companies, but by 2023, these companies will be ready and "attack".
7, some foresight.
I believe no one can predict 100% what will happen in 2023, but I will never tire of making some predictions every year. I think this is also our hope to participate in the future. So for me, what is my prediction? I want to share share.
I have three predictions. First, there are still great opportunities for online business, but many sinking offline market opportunities are even greater. Second, the space for short videos and live broadcasts has not yet peaked. If individuals want to make money, short video self-media is still the best opportunity. Third, the biggest dividend in the future is focus and differentiation. Only by focusing on subdivided categories can you have a high probability of winning. Only through differentiation can you win the hearts and minds of consumers.
9. The best person in 2022 is "Su Shi".
2022 is very difficult. How can we live better in difficult situations? I think one of the people who should learn from it is Su Shi. I have written an article about Su Shi before, "Learn Su Dongpo and become a person who knows how to live." ", a passage about Su Shi, which is called "Survive the most difficult situation and aim for the farthest goal", which means "attack the most difficult place and pursue the most ambitious goal." I think in 2022, 2023, and even further into the future, we should all work hard with this mentality!
10, blessings.
Finally, I wish everyone good health and safety while working hard in 2023!
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