html At 8 a.m. on June 30, this year’s No. 3 typhoon Siamba was generated near the Zhongsha Islands in the South my country Sea. Its predecessor was the 97W we mentioned before. At 8 p.m., the center of the typhoon was located about 700 kilometers southeast of Zhanjiang, Guangdong, and was very close to the mainland of my country.
Siamba and the future Ai Liyuntu , Zhongqi Ai labeled
In the past day, Siamba has developed very obviously. In the morning, its typhoon center was exposed and the convection was cut away. However, in the evening, its center was covered by dense convective clouds. The huge cloud system expanded again, covering almost the entire central and southern part of the South China Sea, giving it the appearance of being the dominant force in the South China Sea. At the end of June, it was unexpected that the typhoon in the South China Sea could develop like this.
Siam Ba and Future Aili , Zhongqi Ai labeled
As the Siam Ba circulation expands and its intensity increases, its path becomes more clear. At present, the differences between supercomputer models and major meteorological bureaus have narrowed significantly. Everyone believes that Siamba is most likely to make landfall in western Guangdong on the night of July 2, with , Zhanjiang, and being the most likely. In the intensity forecast of Central Meteorological Observatory , the landing intensity has been raised to level 10-11. Obviously, the possibility of continuing to increase to level 12 exists.
A collection analysis of Siamba and Future Aili , produced by Zhongqi Ai based on ECMWF data
Of course, for Zhanjiang, a level 12 typhoon can completely cope with it; but Siamba’s target is not just Zhanjiang, its huge circulation will Covering almost the entire coast of Guangdong, the Hong Kong Observatory will hoist the No. 3 typhoon signal, not excluding the No. 8 typhoon signal; the focus of Siam Ba is not the wind, but the violent and lasting heavy rain.
Hong Kong Observatory predicts
As mentioned in our previous article, after Siam makes landfall, it will be stuck in the saddle of the Pacific subtropical high and the continental high pressure, staying near the junction of , Guangdong and Guangxi, . However, there are differences between the supercomputer models as to how to detain the system. One of them believes that the system will be detained deep inland, while the other is to detain on the coast. The former school will have greater rain, while the latter school will have slightly less rain.
Situation chart on July 6, produced by Zhongqi Ai based on ECMWF data
However, no matter how it is delayed, there is a risk of continued heavy rains in South China, and extremely heavy rains have been reported in Hainan. Just today, there are at least two days left before Siam Bay makes landfall. Scattered heavy rain clouds have appeared in Guangdong, and tornadoes have appeared in the Nanhai District of Foshan and Wuchuan offshore. It can be seen that the circulation in Siam Bay is huge and the energy along the coast of South China is abundant. .
Forecast for Haikou, from NMC
It can be seen that Siamba is no longer the loose tropical depression yesterday, nor is it a "parallel import" that can be despised, but a clearly integrated major typhoon that may intensify rapidly, and may bring Friends in Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan should pay close attention to the typhoon trends and make timely preparations to prevent typhoons, especially heavy rains and Xijiang floods.
ECMWF's forecast of heavy rains in South China comes from meteorilogix
While Typhoon Siam intensified, a large number of loose heavy rains occurred in central and eastern my country, which stopped after a while but were particularly fierce. In the future, Typhoon Siam and the possible Typhoon Airey will absorb most of the water vapor, and the Meiyu belt will disappear. The central and eastern regions will still be dominated by this kind of bulk heavy rain. At the same time, a new round of dry and hot temperatures will start from the northwest and gradually advance to the east.
Arc-shaped cumulonimbus clouds in Hangzhou on June 30, from @小鹿 jumped
