reported from Iran that the recent conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh was a disaster for Iran. The ceasefire conditions agreed by Armenia and Azerbaijan pose a serious threat to Tehran's long-term strategic interests. This influence may affect the Iranian people’s view of the Iranian regime and change their policies towards Azerbaijan and Syria. Azerbaijan now controls the entire Iranian border along the Alas River and controls the Karabakh region. Although this is worth celebrating in Azerbaijan, it is shocking in Iran, because the expansion of the Azerbaijani border allows Israel to enter more territories and thus maintain contact with Iran.
Israeli drones exported to Azerbaijan
Despite Azerbaijan’s denials, it is no secret that Israel and Azerbaijan have substantive cooperation on intelligence, energy and military affairs. Azerbaijan is one of the largest purchasers of Israeli weapons. During the war, it used Israeli "Habi" suicide drones to tilt the battlefield. Israeli drones played an important role in airstrike superiority-although the Turkish-made "second lieutenant" TB2 drone was considered to be The real game changer in conflict.
Azerbaijan buys a lot of Israeli equipment
In addition, Azerbaijan maintains deep intelligence ties with Israel. If Israel launches air strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, then Azerbaijan may play an important role, whether it is as a transit refueling base for the Israeli Air Force or as a take-off point for Israeli Air Force fighter bombings. Another consequence of the Karabakh war was the proposed establishment of a transit corridor through Armenian territory, which would connect Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan region. This corridor will be patrolled by the Russian army and is likely to be parallel to the border between Armenia and Iran. This has attracted people’s attention in Iran, because Iran can effectively cut off Iran’s access to Armenia and from there to Europe via Georgia. For a country that has freed itself from international sanctions, it is vital for Iran to maintain contact with friendly neighbors.
Iran and Azerbaijan can be described as close neighbors
. This situation has caused panic. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Akic was forced to issue a clear guarantee to Azerbaijan, asking Azerbaijan to guarantee that it would not threaten to enter Armenia. It is worth noting that Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif is about to travel to Moscow and Baku to discuss this issue in more detail.
And Turkey is another important winner in the conflict. Not only will its troops maintain a presence in Azerbaijan, they will also enter the Caspian Sea directly through the proposed Nakhichevan-Azerbaijan corridor. Now Turkey can directly exert influence in Central Asia. This has always been one of the ambitions of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Iran will note that Russia is unwilling to provide full support for its ally Armenia. Russia’s role in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict shows that if an ally becomes too troublesome, it is willing to sacrifice an ally.
Previously, Iranian snipers directly targeted the President of Azerbaijan
Armenian Prime Minister Nickel Passingyan came to power through the kind of "color revolution" that Russian President Vladimir Putin hated. By imprisoning the former president of Armenia, former Putin allies further annoyed the Russian president.
Russia will provide a peacekeeping force in Karabakh, and Iranian policymakers may draw correct conclusions, especially the Syrian allied forces are facing Turkish challenges.
