Following the US media exposure that President Trump planned to launch a "surgical" military strike on Iran's nuclear base, Iran's top nuclear expert was assassinated and killed, but no one has come out to "claim" it. To this end, Iran issued a fierce warning that it would retaliate severely against the killer. At the same time, Iran also announced an increase in the number of centrifuges and an increase in the purity of enriched uranium. In response to this, Israeli officials said in accepting the media that the possibility of Israel and other countries "using force against Iran" is "increasing."
When the United States and Israel issued a military threat to Iran, on the one hand, Iran launched a rigorous investigation into the killing of nuclear experts to calm the anger of the domestic people. Public opinion generally believes that the possibility of Iran taking the initiative to launch retaliatory military strikes against the United States or Israel is very small, and the reality is more likely that Israel and the United States will join forces or Israel will act alone to determine the Iranian military that can conduct nuclear explosion tests. The base carries out a surgical strike, which is similar to the Israeli military strike on Iraq’s nuclear facilities many years ago. In the past few days, the Israeli Air Force has been frequently mobilized and deployed, but its equipment with US-made F-35 fighters is unknown, and it is likely to be preparing for a surprise attack. The Iranian army has also raised its alert level, and a large number of air defense missiles and ballistic missiles are also ready to launch at any time.
At a sensitive moment when the smell of gunpowder in the Middle East became more and more intense, the senior commander of Mossad, the core Israeli intelligence agency, was assassinated, which once again cast a shadow over the situation in the Middle East. According to news from Al Jazeera on December 6, a 45-year-old senior Israeli intelligence commander named Fami Shinawi was suddenly assassinated when he was in a vehicle waiting for a red light at a busy intersection in the capital. It is reported that multiple gunmen aimed at the target and fired 15 consecutive times and shot the commander directly in the car. After the shooting was completed, the murderer quickly evacuated the scene. An Israeli media analysis stated that this was the first assassination of an Israeli intelligence commander, and it was most likely a black hand under an Iranian agent. However, some analysts believe that Shinawi may have been involved in the assassination of Iranian nuclear experts. Some people wanted to kill people because the media of the United States and Israel had previously “exposed” each other’s involvement in the assassination of Iranian nuclear experts. No response was given, but this revealed the different strategic demands of the United States and Israel on the Iran issue.
For Israel, Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons, which is an insurmountable red line, but Iran’s nuclear program has long since left the stage of relying on a certain individual. Therefore, assassination of Iranian nuclear experts has limited effect in preventing the progress of Iran’s nuclear program. For Trump, the assassination of Iranian nuclear experts has aroused a strong response from Iran, which will make it difficult for the Biden-Harris administration to return to the US-Iran nuclear agreement signed in 2015. Therefore, there is a view that when the Iranian nuclear expert was "being cold," the senior commander of the Israeli intelligence service was immediately assassinated. It is most likely a trap set by the Trump administration, which made Israel mistakenly believe it was Iran’s retaliatory assassination, thereby promoting Israel used force against Iran. However, the Israeli side has not made any official comments on the assassination of Shinawi.
On the surface, the assassination of a senior commander of the Israeli intelligence service is in line with Iran’s character of “repaying blood”. If Israel deploys a warplane to attack Iran, even if it is difficult to completely destroy the Iranian nuclear base or achieve the goal of subverting Iran’s current regime, "Killing with a knife" is obviously more in line with the strategic interests of the United States. Earlier, a US official stated that Shinawi was assassinated. From the photos from the scene, it can be seen that Shinawi was riding in the vehicle with bullet holes everywhere, and it was so pitiful that he was covered in blood. If Israel needs it, the US is willing to work with Israel to track down the murderer and bring the murderer to justice. The official also stated that the United States will never ignore such bloody and brutal behavior. Some analysts believe that according to Israel's character of "retribution to the retribution," the continuing turmoil in the Middle East is undoubtedly likely to deteriorate further. I hope that the game between the United States and Israel with Iran will not exceed the strategic bottom line that both sides can bear, and stop adding fuel to the already "boiling" state of the Middle East.
