Christmas Eve in 2022 is a thrilling festive night for Serbian people. Two major incidents occurred that night, deepening the outside world's concerns about the security situation in Serbia and northern Kosovo. The first major incident was that on the evening of December 25, local time, a train carrying ammonia derailed in Pirot, southeastern Serbia. One of the carriages fell into the bed of the Nišava River, causing a violent reaction between ammonia and water. More than 50 people were poisoned, and seven people were sent to the hospital in Niš. The first thing people think of when a train derails is a safety accident or a technical accident. However, against the backdrop of intensified ethnic conflicts in northern Kosovo, the derailment of a chemical transport train in neighboring southern Serbia cannot rule out the possibility of man-made sabotage. Although the cause of the incident remains to be investigated, it will undoubtedly have a bad impact on the hearts of many Serbians.
More importantly, gunfire rang out in northern Kosovo that night. Serbian journalists at the scene reported that Kosovo special forces attacked Serb protesters in northern Kosovo and Metohija at night, and apparently opened fire. Contrary to claims by Serbian journalists, Kosovo media accused Serbs of attacking a Latvian contingent on a NATO peacekeeping mission. Civilian confrontations between Serbs and Albanians are currently taking place in the area, and local security is entirely maintained by the Kosovo Armed Forces. This is the fundamental reason for the escalation of conflicts. After ethnic conflicts intensified in northern Kosovo, Serbian President Vucic made a request to NATO to send armed forces and police forces into northern Kosovo for peacekeeping, but there has been no response from NATO. Afterwards, the Serbian army transported a large number of tanks and armored vehicles close to the administrative demarcation line in northern Kosovo, and was accused of preparing to intervene.
The gunshots rang out on Christmas Eve in northern Kosovo alarmed Serbian President Vucic. Serbian media revealed that Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic immediately held emergency talks with Prime Minister Ana Brnabic and Chief of General Staff Milan Mojsilovic. Vucic and his team expressed support for the country's army and police to go to the northern administrative border area of Kosovo. It is believed that this is a difficult decision, because Serbia's sending troops to Kosovo means immediately triggering diplomatic intervention and even military intervention from NATO and the EU. If it were just against the Kosovo Liberation Army, the Serbian army would have a very high chance of winning. However, facing a NATO military force that is a hundred times more powerful than its own, it is almost impossible for Serbia to have the opportunity to assert its national sovereignty and interests through tough military means. The Serbian army only has a size of 30,000 people, which is too weak compared with NATO.
In addition to its lack of military strength, Serbia also has another lever that I have in the hands of the West, which is Serbia’s national strategy to join the European Union. Serbia has always wanted to integrate into the EU and obtain economic dividends in the EU market, but the EU's prerequisite for joining the EU is that Serbia must recognize Kosovo's sovereign status. This undoubtedly puts Serbia in a dilemma, and at the same time gives Kosovo the opportunity to "take advantage of Serbia". This crisis is caused by the fact that the powerful military and police departments of Kosovo, despite the opposition of the Serbs, violated the treaty and entered the Serb-inhabited area in northern Kosovo, triggering large-scale protests by the local Serbs and bloody confrontations with the Albanians. At this time, the United States and European countries that have the ability to mediate and mediate will either sit on the sidelines or unreasonably put unilateral pressure on Serbia. The German Foreign Minister simply expressed his opposition to Serbia sending troops to northern Kosovo (on the pretext of protecting the local Serbs).
In terms of national security, Serbia is in a dangerous environment surrounded by NATO members, which is more embarrassing than any landlocked country in the world. If the issue of northern Kosovo detonates the Balkan powder keg again, then unlike the last Kosovo war, Serbia can only use air channels to receive support from Slavic brother countries. But it must face the airspace restrictions imposed by neighboring NATO countries.However, now the Serbian government and President Vucic seem to have no choice. Because of the shooting incident in northern Kosovo on Christmas Eve, Serbian President Vucic must unequivocally express a tough stance and firmly safeguard the safety and interests of the local Serbian people. What is worrying is that the French newspaper "Le Figaro" believes that there is no solution at this stage. In the short term, it will be difficult for the European Union to pressure any party to obtain concessions. The longer the dispute between the local Serbs and the Kosovo authorities continues, the greater the possibility of another conflict in the Balkans.
