On November 30, Russia reiterated that civilian satellites that supported Ukrainian military operations in the conflict may become legal targets of the Russian army. This is the second time Russia has warned of the provision of intelligence services by Western civil satellites to Ukraine. As early as September 12, at the second symposium of the United Nations Open Working Group on "Responsible Outer Space Act", Russian representative Konstantin Vorontov said that the "situation in Ukraine" highlights the practice of the United States and its allies to use "civil space facilities" to achieve military goals, and these "quasi-civilian facilities" that "indirectly participate in military conflicts" are "reasonable targets."
Yelmakov
But Russia is just a warning and has not really hit it. However, this severe warning was issued by Russian Director Yermakov, representing the true meaning of the Russian government. Next, Russia may really have to take action against the civil satellites of Western countries . So why is Russia cracking down on Western civil satellites? Does Russia have anti-satellite technology? To what extent can it attack Western satellite ? Will the conflict escalate after attacking Western satellites, and even the world war ? The editor will analyze it one by one below.
1. Why does Russia crack down on Western civil satellites
After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States led Western countries used more than 200 civilian satellites to provide intelligence services to Ukraine, the most prominent of which is the starlink satellite of Musk . These satellites played a huge role in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict: First, they investigate the Russian military deployment and dynamics. The accuracy of Western civil satellites is very high. They directly obtain the deployment and location of the Russian army through high-definition imaging, and provide it to the Ukrainian army, so that the Ukrainian army can effectively grasp the situation of the Russian army and take targeted measures. For example, in recent times, Zelensky said that Russia has gathered a large number of map 160 and map 95 strategic bombers to bomb Ukrainian infrastructure. It is obvious that Western satellites have provided relevant picture information.
0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 After Ukrainian infrastructure was bombed, Musk's Starlink was the only means for Ukrainian front-line soldiers to communicate with the rear, and directly assumed the important role of command, mobilization and coordination of Ukrainian front-line. It is said that every five Wujun troops have a starlink satellite receiver. The third is the weapon guidance function. The reason why the Ukrainian Himas rocket launcher , M777 artillery and Divine Sword guided artillery shells have such high accuracy is that Western satellites play an important role. In particular, the small Ukrainian drones often throw bombs at the Russian army in the trenches, which is also closely related to the intelligence of Western satellites. It is said that the sinking of the USS Moscow cruiser is also related to Western satellites.
Wujunxing Link Collection
Fourth is the warning function. Tracking the Russian Aerospace Forces fighter jets, cruise missiles, drone , etc., providing early warnings to Ukraine so that the Ukrainian army can deploy interception in advance. The Ukrainian army used individual air defense missiles to shoot down cruise missiles in actual combat, which is definitely related to the early warning of Western satellites. These huge effects of Western satellites have caused huge losses to the Russian army, and once made the Russian army very passive. Russia hated these civilian satellites, so Russia wanted to attack these civilian satellites.
The Moscow cruiser was hit
2. What kind of anti-satellite means does Russia have
Currently, Russia has three means to strike satellites: one is the anti-satellite missile system. During the Cold War, a variety of anti-satellite missile systems were developed during the former Soviet Union. The anti-satellite missile system includes the anti-satellite radar sighting system and the anti-satellite missile . In recent years, Russia has made great progress on the basis of the former Soviet Union, deploying more than a dozen "Crown" anti-satellite sighting systems, which can accurately lock space satellites and command anti-satellite missiles to strike. The Nudoli anti-satellite missile was developed, which can shoot down satellites at an altitude of 1,000 kilometers and conduct multiple tests. At the same time, Russia also has air-launched anti-satellite missiles launched using the MiG31, similar to the Dagger hypersonic missile.Russia's latest S500 air defense system does not have the ability to strike near-orbit satellites.
"Nudoli" anti-satellite missile
The second is a laser anti-satellite weapon. Since around 2000, Russia has been discovering laser anti-satellite weapons. The vehicle-mounted laser system "Pellesvet" has been put into use and can be deployed together with mobile intercontinental ballistic missile forces and can "blind" reconnaissance satellites within a range of up to 1,500 kilometers. The A-60 airborne laser anti-satellite weapon developed by Russia uses the Il-76 aircraft as the platform and carries a high-power laser , which can blind reconnaissance or missile early warning satellite .
Russian A-60 laser anti-satellite weapon
Third is an anti-satellite satellite. During the former Soviet Union, the Soviet Union discovered anti-satellite satellites. The working principle is to first launch the anti-satellite satellites to a predetermined orbit, and start the orbit change engine according to the operating orbit of the target satellite, and do orbit change maneuver to approach the target satellite, and destroy it with killing means such as missile , laser weapon , high-energy particle beam weapon, its own explosion and collision. However, it is unknown whether Russia continues to develop at present, but there is definitely this technology.
Anti-satellite satellite
III. Can Russia shoot down all civil satellites in the West
Although Russia has warned the West that it may attack Western civil satellites, and it also has certain technical capabilities, it is really difficult to implement it: First, there are too many civil satellites in the West. Taking Musk's Starlink satellite as an example, it is planned to launch 42,000 satellites in three phases to low-Earth orbit, and 3,500 have been launched. The Russian army did not have the ability to shoot it down.
Starlink satellite system
Second, the cost-effectiveness is not high. Whether it is an anti-satellite missile or an anti-satellite satellite, the cost is very high, and it may cost millions of dollars each time. Western civil satellites are very cheap. For example, the cost of Starlink satellites is only 500,000 US dollars, and the cost may be reduced to 200,000 US dollars in the future. Russia does not have the ability to strike thousands of satellites, let alone so much money.
S500 air defense system
Third, the technology is not yet mature. Neither anti-satellite missiles nor anti-satellite satellites can be successful 100%. According to the calculation results of military simulation systems, the success rate of anti-satellite warfare is generally below 10%. Laser anti-satellites are greatly affected by the weather and have problems with insufficient power. It is estimated that Russia will strike at most a few satellites as a warning, and it is impossible to shoot down all Western satellites.
laser weapon
4. Can attack on Western civil satellites trigger a world war
Answer is no. First, Russia emphasized this time to crack down on civilian satellites serving Ukraine, rather than military satellites of Western countries. The reason why Russia emphasizes this is because it does not want to make the Russian-Ukrainian conflict bigger and directly confronts the West military. The same is true for Western countries. Just like the U.S. military satellite has a much stronger capability in all aspects than civilian satellites, but the U.S. military has been spending money to rent civilian satellites to serve Ukraine, but it just doesn't want to overstimulate Russia, leading to escalating conflicts. Do military satellites work? The editor believes that it must have played a role, but neither the United States nor Russia took the initiative to propose it, just pretending that it did not play a role.
Anti-satellite missile strike satellite imagination
Second, space has no borders. Currently, all countries have airspace, but they do not entrust space. Generally, more than 100 kilometers belongs to space and does not belong to any country. Therefore, Russia's crackdown on civilian satellites only destroyed the assets of civilian satellite companies and did not infringe on the territory and sovereignty of any country, so it will not cause conflicts between countries. Third, Russia has at most a few civil satellites with its current strength, which is nothing to Western countries, so it will not trigger a world war.
