Author of this article: Cuckoo
This article only represents the author's views and does not represent the position of this account
Russian air strikes escalate, Kiev is facing an unprecedented crisis, and the severe cold on the battlefield of Russia and Ukraine has arrived. It seems that the Russian army's attack on the city again is imminent, but the seven countries' rush to Kiev to support has added weight to Ukraine, and the United States has also expressed its statement again, and the Kiev variables have added balance. However, the balance of the Russian-Ukraine battlefield will be broken at any time. The Russian army attacks the south from the north and defends the south, and the Ukraine army attacks the north from the south. Let’s see what situation the game between Russia and Ukraine will go under the crisis of Kiev.
After the fierce air strikes by the Russian army on November 23, Kiev, the Ukrainian capital, suffered a heavy blow, and its power, water, heating and communication systems were almost paralyzed. Although most of these civil facilities have been restored after several days of emergency repairs, the supply to Kiev is still unstable and may be interrupted at any time. Ukrainian Electric Power Company said that only 42% of the electricity is available for household users at present, and the company is providing electricity supply to each household in Kiev City for 2 to 3 hours each time as much as possible. But now the cold winter has arrived. If Kiev finds it difficult to maintain the operation of people's livelihood facilities, then a large-scale humanitarian crisis is likely to occur.
In previous programs, we talked about the Russian army facing an adverse situation on the southern Zaporoze line, and Surovikin is likely to turn his attention to the northern line. At present, not only has the Russian army repeatedly put electricity pressure on Kiev, but also according to multiple sources, the Russian army has frequently mobilized on the northern line, and it seems that there will be large-scale military operations. It is not ruled out that the Russian army will re-implement the situation of the war at the beginning of the war. The actual situation facing Kiev is currently very complicated, and various variables will affect the success or failure of Russia and Ukraine.
Let’s first look at some unfavorable factors in Ukraine and learn about the severe situation Kiev is currently facing.
In fact, long before winter came, someone had persuaded Kiev to evacuate Kiev's citizens . On November 21, the World Health Organization's European Regional Director Kruger called on more than 3 million Ukrainians to move to other countries immediately to survive this difficult winter.
, but 's suggestion was opposed by Kiev Mayor Klicchiko. He believed that at this stage no Ukrainian should flee Kiev, and he denied Kiev's evacuation plan. In order to show his determination to "suffer and die with Kiev" and respond to Zelensky's call to establish an "Invincible Center", Klicchiko said that he has prepared 1,000 refuges, which can ensure that 3 million Kiev citizens can survive this winter. Klicchiko also said that the Russian army destroyed Ukraine's electricity and heating facilities, with the purpose of which was to allow the Ukrainians to escape, but the Ukrainians would not leave their hometown like this, and they would guard until the end. And he himself must follow this public opinion and build a large number of shelter facilities to help Ukrainian citizens.
However, although the mayor of Kiev is very tough, his actual actions are suspicious.
Zelensky said in a video speech released on the evening of the 25th: "The entire country of my country has set up an "invincible center", but as far as I know, it is regrettable that not all local governments' work is invincible. , especially the "invincible center" established in Kiev, can only provide water, electricity, mobile communications, Internet and other services, located at the base of the National Emergency Bureau and the Capital Railway Station. The "invincible center" in other areas is not so much a refuge, but rather a temporary shanty town. The environment inside is harsh, lacks basic people's livelihood uses, and even lacks basic warming functions. If there are really citizens living in, it is a question whether they can survive the day, let alone deal with possible bombings from the Russian army. As a result, Zelensky publicly criticized Kiev Mayor Klicchiko, saying that he did a terrible job in building a shelter.
After the Russian army changed its tactics, retreated south and advanced north and put huge pressure on Kiev. At the same time, winter is approaching, and there are problems in the construction of the "Invincible Center", Ukraine is facing an unprecedented critical moment . However, at this time, seven foreign ministers from collectively went to Kiev and gave Zelensky a "heart-boosting shot".
On November 28th local time, the Ukrainian State News Agency reported that the foreign ministers of the seven countries, including Latvia , Estonia , Lithuania , Finland , Iceland , Norway and Sweden, arrived in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, to discuss further support for Ukraine. Then on November 29, the next day, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg said he would call on NATO allies to provide more winter aid to Ukraine, including fuel, medical supplies, winter equipment and drone jammers at meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday. Once the materials urgently needed by Ukraine arrive, it will indeed greatly enhance Kiev's defense strength.
At the same time, Americans also took action .
On November 29, US Secretary of State Blinken will attend the NATO meeting during the NATO meeting, and he announced that he would provide "a large amount of" financial assistance to Ukraine to help Ukraine repair the damage caused by Russia's continued crackdown on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
US Secretary of Defense Austin even made a direct speech to the outside world saying that with the assistance of the United States, Ukraine will prepare for winter battles, and "the situation of the Ukrainian army is much better than that of the Russian army." He also said that Ukraine has "made considerable progress" on the battlefield at present, and in the upcoming winter, the United States will do its best to aid Ukraine so that Ukraine can prepare for combat in winter and occupy an advantageous position. Finally, Austin swore that the purpose of the United States' aid was to allow Ukraine to "take back every inch of occupied territory."
Seven foreign ministers plus the United States, Western countries are here to "a timely help" Zelensky. However, Ukraine still has doubts about whether Western countries can fulfill these support commitments. As of now, NATO countries have provided Ukraine with weapons and equipment worth about US$40 billion (about RMB 287 billion), roughly equivalent to France's annual defense budget. However, according to Western media reports, the military aid that actually arrived at the Ukrainian army was very limited. Less than a month after the war between Russia and Ukraine began, Western countries began to hype that "Russian military ammunition has been exhausted." As a result, after more than half a year of fighting, some NATO countries have begun to claim "very tired", saying that the ammunition database, , was exhausted, which made people wonder whether NATO was really considering Ukraine's needs. NATO can't produce much equipment such as tank , infantry fighting vehicle , large-caliber self-propelled artillery and other that Ukraine is really urgently needed. On the latest round of aid list for Ukraine, there were even 150 M134 Gatling machine guns.
I believe Ukraine is also seeing this phenomenon clearly, considering that Zelensky has criticized the United States and Western countries many times before, and it has effect every time. Under the current Kiev crisis, once the United States and other Western countries want to carry out "face-saving projects", Zelensky's severe criticism and pressure may come to the heads of the United States and NATO countries again.
and the overall trend of the battlefield is also affecting the development of the situation. We previously talked about what happened in Zaporoze , showing that the Russian army is changing the tactics .
Sulovikin may focus the Russian army on the northern line and the southern line is facing passive conditions, so it will no longer be the focus. The current situation is being verified. Russia has strengthened the offensive on the Northern Line, and Kiev has been repeatedly under pressure from the Russian army; in addition to strengthening the defense of Kharkov on the Northern Line, many troops have returned to defend Kiev.
The Russian army tends to attack north and defend south, while the Ukrainian army tends to attack south and defend north. The misalignment of the offensive and defensive focus of both sides has also brought huge variables to the battlefield game between Russia and Ukraine. The Russian army was indeed facing the cold winter and ammunition test in the north, but Ukraine was also putting pressure on the Russian army in the south. On the southern line on the 28th, Ukraine did make a breakthrough. Ukrainian military officer announced that he had recovered the Jinben Peninsula and officially obtained a bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper River in , which also means that the Ukrainian army may put some degree of pressure on the Russian army from the southern line at any time. It is precisely because of this that both Russia and Ukraine are racing against time.
The current battlefield situation has become clearer. One possible situation is that the Russian army defends the southern line and makes progress on the central line to join forces to advance to Kiev, which has attracted more Ukrainian troops to return to defense. The pressure on the southern line of the Russian army will be lifted by itself. Another situation is that the Ukrainian army defended Kiev, and the army rushed across the Dnieper River to take Zaporozhe to form two borders on the Russian army. The moment of decisive victory comes at any time, it depends on which Russia and Ukraine can take the lead in making an effective offensive, thus threatening the opponent's defense line and forcing the opponent to be mobilized. Once the situation is formed, there is no need for a resistance-style decisive battle, the weak side will have to directly consider the issue of summing. The winner will also lay a huge advantage foundation for the subsequent negotiations.
