Lei Qian, a well-known Taiwanese political commentator and scholar, analyzed the reasons for the failure of the United States' cold war against China in a TV program on July 10.
1. American think tank believes that the United States has underestimated mainland China’s resilience and underestimated mainland China’s creative capabilities
Lei Qian said that American think tanks are discussing why the United States lost to China.
Their final conclusion is: We have underestimated the resilience of mainland China and the creative ability of mainland China.
However, at the same time, they will also accuse mainland China of "doing whatever it takes". Of course this is a purely Western view.
2. The United States is looking for a new opportunity to fight a new Cold War.
Lei Qian commented that they suddenly woke up and found that mainland China has begun to become the world's second largest economy not only economically. At the same time, many countries have begun to agree with the values diplomacy and worldview it leads.
Well, at this time, the United States said that if we want to fight a new Cold War, we need to find a new opportunity. It has been looking for a so-called Cuban incident. After the conflict occurred, when we could enter 1970, that The low period of the Cold War.
Therefore, in discussions among Western think tanks, they have been claiming that there will be a "Cuba incident" with mainland China.
Every time they talk about the Cuban incident, I think, really, Taiwan is in that position, and I am very worried.
3. The democracy, freedom, and religion exported by the United States have been politicized and weaponized, and are becoming a disaster for other countries.
Stiglitz is an economist whom I respect very much. He once wrote a very important book. , called "The Promise and Disappointment of Globalization" .
He told Westerners that we once thought that what we thought were the advantages of these systems, could universally enable the world to allow late-developing countries to enter good development.
However, , these late-developing countries or countries with low development, followed the menu we gave them, and the result was a very big disaster.
Therefore, this time he very carefully told the West, mainly the United States, that the values you touted have actually fallen. The democracy, human rights, and even religious freedom you mentioned have become the dominant values of the United States, and they have been politicized and weaponized.
The Global Summit on Religious Freedom held in Washington from June 28th to 30th almost always attacked mainland China from the perspective of CIA. Therefore, you can see that so-called democracy, human rights, and religious freedom have all been weaponized and politicized.
4. American society, market, economic and military strength are all declining.
The decline of American power has become clearer. Whether it is in society, in the market, in terms of economic and military strength, or in terms of the international order it leads, the strength of the United States is declining.
This is the biggest dispute between mainland China and the United States. Because the economic strength is real.
In the first half of this year, mainland China's exports grew. Of course, the United States will say that its trade deficit has shrunk, but it is still in a state of trade deficit after all.
I would like to give you an example. Recently, I saw an analyst analyzing , Alibaba, and Amazon. These two companies are very powerful. Their current stock prices are around 120 to 130 (per share).
He said that inflation in the market where Alibaba is located is not serious, consumers are not pessimistic, interest rates are very low, and capital expenditures are not high, so the possibility of growth is very high.
Relatively speaking, in the major countries where Amazon is located, the inflation in the United States is 48.6% and 8.7%. Inflation has affected consumption and employment.At the same time, the mentality of consumers is pessimistic in the short term, which will affect their willingness to consume. In addition to increasing costs, warehousing and logistics costs increase, interest rates increase, and therefore the cost of capital expenditures increases.
Although he only used two companies for comparison, he could really see the fundamental differences between the economies of the United States and mainland China.
5. The American dream is broken, the United States is losing people's hearts, and the United States must take care of itself
If the United States wants to fight a new cold war with mainland China, it needs to have the right to speak, and more people need to be willing to follow the United States.
Stiglitz’s most important and appropriate piece of advice: The United States must take care of itself.
Why people in the past had the American Dream is because the United States at that time was to make the United States a place where all people could realize their dreams.
So American dream is an important place, even a place where immigrants from various countries go through great hardships to go, and even refugees from many countries go through great hardships to escape to the United States.
Sometimes, these refugees wander on the road or even die on the road. Because they thought there was a very good and fair paradise on earth that would allow him to realize his American dream.
However, America is not such a paradise on earth now.
So Stieglitz said, America must really be based on its roots and the Tao. The United States must take care of itself first.
6. Summarize Lei Qian’s views:
The reasons why the United States lost to China:
First, it misestimated China’s strength, which is what Westerners call mainland China’s resilience and creativity.
In layman's terms, it means being careless and looking down on China.
Second, they mistakenly want to create a crisis event, similar to the "Cuba incident", which will lead to a new Cold War.
In layman's terms, I just wanted to stir up trouble, but China didn't fall into the trap, so I didn't find an opportunity.
Third, America’s values and institutional advantages such as democracy, human rights, and freedom are mistakenly used as a political tool and weapon, which has resulted in disasters for many countries.
In layman's terms, it means forcing other countries to learn from the American model, regardless of whether they adapt to it or not, and regardless of whether the American system is acclimated to the local environment. disasters, such as national unrest and frequent civil wars.
Fourth, the overall strength of the United States has obviously declined, and its right to speak is being lost.
In layman's terms, because I saw that the comprehensive strength in social, economic, market, military and other aspects has declined, and is being surpassed by China, which leads to the loss of superiority, I am really anxious and panicked, so I will faint. Moves, random moves, even dirty moves, completely losing the demeanor of the world's boss.
Fifth, the United States failed to take care of itself, causing the American dream to be broken and no longer admirable.
In layman's terms, because the United States has occupied the position of the world's leader for a long time, it has become forgetful and domineering, unable to restrain its own behavior, and has become a negative teaching material.
