A few days ago, Russia and Ukraine conducted the largest prisoner exchange since the war in Ukraine. A total of 144 Ukrainian combatants were released.
It is reported that most of the Ukrainian prisoners of war released this time were those who had previously stayed in Mariupo. Soldiers at Azov Steel Plant.
The General Intelligence Service of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine posted on social media on the 29th that among the 144 people released, 95 were defenders of the Azov Steel Plant, and 43 of them were from the Azov Corps.
Uzbek news did not disclose the specific time and place of the prisoner exchange, nor did it indicate how many Russian soldiers were released. However, based on past situations, if the exchanged prisoners of war are of the same level, the number should be the same.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmigal confirmed the prisoner exchange and called the release process "very complicated."
On the other hand, Pushilin, the head of a pro-Russian organization in the Donetsk region, said that Russia has exchanged the same number of prisoners of war from Ukraine , and these soldiers have now "returned home."
Since the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine, it has gone through more than four months of fierce fighting. So far, the Russian army has occupied about 1/5 of the territory of Ukraine, but it is difficult to say that this is a successful military operation.
At the beginning of the special military operation, Putin was very generous, including Kiev , Sumy, Odessa , Kharkov , Kherson and other central, southern and eastern Ukraine. Cities are all within the attack range, but after the Russian army suffered heavy losses in Kiev, Kharkiv and other places, the high command had to adjust its strategy and concentrate its efforts on the Udong battlefield with the intention of fully occupying the Donbass area.
At present, it is generally expected that once the Russian army completely captures the Donbass (currently only Lisichansk is left in Luhansk region , and a few Slavyansk are left in Donetsk region city), the special military operation would be declared victorious - provided that at the same time, they retained the gains in the south.
However, according to Yingjiang's assessment, the current combat effectiveness of the Russian army has been significantly degraded, and it is unlikely to achieve this goal in the short term.
Haynes, the head of the US intelligence agency , analyzed that there are three possible situations in the Russia-Ukraine war:
The first, and most likely, is that after an unprecedented fierce battle, the Russian army has no chance to breathe. Some progress has been made;
The second possibility is that the Russian army has made a major breakthrough, fully occupied Lugansk, and formed an encirclement of Slavyansk (?);
The third possibility is that the Ukrainian army has successfully stabilized Ukraine. front, while making modest progress on the southern front.
I personally think that the final result of is likely to be a combination of the first and third options - the Russian army occupied Lisichansk after paying huge casualties, the Ukrainian army made progress on the southern front, and resumed exports via the Black Sea aisle.
But no matter which outcome it is, it will not be decisive for the entire Ukrainian war. As Haynes said, After a long and hard battle, the Russian army has suffered a huge loss of military personnel and may need to It will take years to regain combat effectiveness, and they are unlikely to achieve their goals any time soon.
This can also be confirmed from Putin’s recent remarks.
According to reports, Putin said during his visit to Turkmenistan that the goal of Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine has not changed. It is still to "liberate" the Donbas region and ensure Russia's national security and living space.
Putin emphasized that the Russian army is currently continuing to move forward and there is no need to set a deadline for ending the war.
This shows that he has been mentally prepared for a long-lasting game.
Conversely, Ukraine and the West should have expected the protracted nature of the war. In fact, they did not hope to end the war through a decisive battle. To some extent, for them, a protracted war is the better choice.
Text/Xilou Yinyue
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