Recently, the latest poll by the "Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation" showed that more than half of the Taiwanese people believe that if the mainland "attacks Taiwan with force", the Taiwan military will not be able to last 100 days. At the same time, more than half of the people d

Recently, the latest poll by the "Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation" showed that more than half of the Taiwanese people believe that if the mainland "attacks Taiwan with force", the Taiwan military will not be able to survive for 100 days. At the same time, people who do not believe in the so-called "promise of joint defense" of the United States also More than half. In this regard, Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Ma Xiaoguang said that the atmosphere and enthusiasm for discussing cross-strait tensions on the island are rising, and have even reached the point of discussing the so-called "military reunification" or war disputes. This phenomenon reflects the Taiwanese people and Taiwanese society. Deep-seated concerns about the dangers and harm caused by the DPP authorities' provocation for "independence". However, the results of the island's polls on this issue are also quite interesting. The flexibility of "less than 100 days" is indeed large. After all, it is less than 100 days to hold on for three months, and it is less than 100 days to end the battle in two hours.

I wonder if the Taiwan military has any idea of ​​the goal of "resistance lasting 100 days"? In the War of Liberation, from the start of the Battle of Liaoshen in September 1948 to the Battle of Pingjin in January 1949, more than 1.5 million enemies were wiped out in the three major battles, which took more than 100 days. This is a reference indicator, which means that the Taiwan military can survive for a hundred days depending on its own plan, and it must have at least a million-strong army. Even considering that the concepts and tactics of modern warfare are different from those of that period, the gap in strength between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is even more different than that of that period. The goal of "resistance for 100 days" is only slightly more difficult than it was back then. Low.

The reason why this poll is set to "100 days of resistance" instead of 80 days or 50 days is because it is reportedly designed with full reference to the battlefield situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. They believe that the area of ​​ Ukraine is 600,000 square kilometers. It has been four months since the conflict broke out, and the current front line is nearly 120,000 square kilometers under actual control by Russia. Therefore, by "substituting" the Russian army's advancement efficiency into the People's Liberation Army, and taking into account that the Taiwanese army's equipment level is "more advantageous" than the Ukrainian army, the 100-day result was obtained.

The problem is that China is not Russia, and Taiwan and Ukraine cannot be compared. In fact, Qiu Guozheng, the head of Taiwan's defense department, was asked during an inquiry in Taiwan's legislative body whether the Taiwan military could resist for a month. Qiu Guozheng hesitated. Then he was asked whether the Taiwan military could resist for a week. Qiu Guozheng still did not dare to face it. answer. Qiu Guozheng has been in the military for more than 40 years. Isn’t it clear that the gap between the true levels of military power on both sides of the Taiwan Strait is still unclear?

And what is the purpose of "resisting for 100 days"? Naturally, it is to delay until the US military is willing to implement the "assistant defense commitment" in order to gain a glimmer of hope. However, looking at the experience in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, on the one hand, it is impossible to escape the sanctions imposed by the Western Group, and most of the sanctions are useless. What difference does it make if we fight fast or slow? On the other hand, since what the Taiwan military expects is the "assisted defense" of the US military, let alone whether the US military is happy or not, what if the US military comes and is driven back?

For example, after destroying the Taiwan military's air defense, fixed military targets, and military power, communications, ports and other targets, a no-fly zone is drawn to cut off subsequent maintenance and protection forces. What the People's Liberation Army Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force have to do is to set up "pocket" formations off the coast of Taiwan and wait for the U.S. military to arrive. When the US military came, they used all their firepower to suppress and expel them. As long as we have the support of multiple aircraft carrier battle groups , resisting the enemy in the sea off Taiwan will not be a problem, but will it take three months? If the U.S. military comes, it may only have three months to assemble its troops, then come and circle around and then leave helplessly; if it doesn't come, these three months may only be enough for it to make a decision against all the internal opinions. Make a statement. The rest depends on whether the Taiwan military can survive three months of heavy blockade?

The current tactical thinking provided by the US military to the Taiwanese army is to stop thinking about annihilating the enemy on the beach and honestly buy more "javelins" and "stingers", restore the conscription system, and be prepared for street fighting, so as to fight as much as possible Depleting the People's Liberation Army's fighting will. However, street fighting is a hard job, and the will of the Taiwanese military will also be consumed. According to the training quality of the Taiwanese military, I don't know whether it can afford it.

Of course, at any time, we should despise the enemy strategically and pay attention to the enemy tactically. After all, as there is a famous saying in the classic film and television drama "Bright Sword", "Even if there are 50,000 pigs, it will take three days to catch them." As the separatist tendencies of the "Taiwan independence" forces become more and more obvious, the performance of the United States on the Taiwan Strait issue has repeatedly exceeded the lower limit. In the face of possible intervention by the US military, we must also be fully prepared to compete with the US aircraft carrier formation off the coast of Taitung. Prepare.