In recent years, the United States has gradually increased its efforts to challenge China's bottom line on the Taiwan issue. After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, Western media and American politicians generally compared the relationship between the mainland and Taiwan with the relationship between Russia and Ukraine , with ulterior motives. Some people believe that if NATO can support Ukraine to defeat the Russian army, then in the future, Western countries will fully support Taiwan and they will definitely be able to defeat the People's Liberation Army. In the "first phase" when the Russian offensive was frustrated, the Western media were still very proud. However, after the "second phase" began, the war situation became more and more favorable to Russia, and the Western media became anxious. At this juncture, U.S. National Security Advisor Sullivan came out again to cheer up the entire West.
Speaking at the National Security Network Conference hosted by the US think tank "Center for a New American Security" (CNAS), Sullivan said that the United States firmly opposes Russia's attack on Ukraine and will "dissuade" "potential threats" like China. Invaders" take similar actions. The logic is very simple, it is to defeat the enemy without fighting. This idea is correct. Sun Tzu's Art of War talks about military strategy first and then diplomatic relations. However, these are all based on strength. If you still want to use tricks without strength, the end will often not be good.
Actually, I am not surprised to see this statement. Although the United States is the world's largest country, the logic of American wars in the past generations can only be seen in four words: bullying the weak and fearing the strong. Sometimes, even if it seems that the fight is terrible, it is just a misjudgment of the situation, such as to resist U.S. aggression and aid Korea, and to resist U.S. aggression and aid Vietnam. Before the war, the United States thought it was a soft persimmon and dared to end the war personally. For really big countries, intimidation and deception are the main methods. For example, on the Russia-Ukraine issue, the United States just used Ukraine as cannon fodder and provided support behind it, while exerting economic and diplomatic pressure. In order not to push China against the United States, Sullivan said that the United States has not seen China provide any form of direct military assistance to Russia, nor has it seen China systematically help Russia evade sanctions and export controls.
In fact, China's imports of Russian oil have reached record highs in recent months, and China UnionPay helped Russian Bank with settlement. If the United States really wants to be serious, these two items alone will make a big fuss. The reason why you can't see with your eyes open is not because your strength doesn't allow it. I don’t know if you have noticed that since the China-U.S. Alaska talks, the United States was choked by China, and since then it has never dared to speak from a position of strength. But without strength and status, how can one defeat others without fighting?
Similarly, on the Taiwan issue, which is the core of Sino-US relations, the United States does not dare to blatantly support Taiwan independence. Sullivan said that the Biden administration's stance on Taiwan has not changed from that of the previous president. He also said that the official U.S. policies: the one-China policy, three joint communiqués , the Taiwan Relations Act and the six guarantees "contain a lot of content," I don’t think this is a flaw in our Taiwan policy, but a feature. In fact, this feature has served us relatively well in handling difficult relations and maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Straits.” It is the vague policy of the United States towards the Taiwan issue.
The origin of this "vague policy" lies in When China and the United States established diplomatic relations , due to the United States' habitual offshore checks and balances strategy, the United States government did not completely abandon the Taiwan authorities. It first played word games in the three joint communiqués on the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States. The blurring of some important concepts left a "gap" for the United States to intervene in the Taiwan issue in the future. Then, just over three months after the formal establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States, the United States' domestic law "Taiwan Relations Act" was passed. Mainland China does not recognize it. of. However, from the perspective of the United States, the Taiwan Relations Act is a law and the U.S. government must abide by it, while the three joint communiqués on the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States are only agreements, not laws, and the U.S. government does not have to abide by them.
The most ambiguous point in the United States' "vague policy" toward Taiwan is that the United States has never promised to directly send troops to fight with the People's Liberation Army to "defend Taiwan," but only promised to provide "support" to Taiwan and allow Taiwan to "defend itself," just like NATO As done in Ukraine. There is currently a dangerous trend in the United States on the Taiwan issue: American politicians are trying to "clarify" Taiwan's "blurred policy." If the U.S. government wants to clarify its "ambiguous policy" on Taiwan, it has only one choice at the moment, which is to promise that the U.S. military will directly go to war with the People's Liberation Army. Now some "hawkish" politicians in the United States are pushing for this because they have a misjudgment of China: they believe that using force to "deterr" us without spending a single soldier will make us give up our determination to unify the motherland. What does
think of these statements by Sullivan? I think this should be viewed in the context of Sino-US relations. In general, the greater the tonnage of China's aircraft carrier , the more advanced the technology, and the greater the number of launches, the more relaxed Sino-US relations will be; in Shangri-La Dialogue , China's Defense Minister Wei Fenghe said that he had discussions with US Defense Secretary Oscar Ding had a good talk; Yang Jiechi only talked for 5 hours when he met Sullivan for the third time, instead of 7 hours like last time, and the time for quarrels was significantly reduced. This is because China's military strength has grown by leaps and bounds in recent years.
However, the world's largest country always dares not to be upright and always makes threats on its lips and uses dirty tricks on its hands. This really loses the dignity of a hegemon. The feeling it gives people is just one word, coward. Now the domestic economy in the United States is stagnant, inflation , referred to as stagflation . They seek help from China at every turn, but by fanning the flames of trouble everywhere, they may end up shooting themselves in the foot.
