According to Bloomberg, Philippine Assistant Secretary of Foreign Affairs Imperia said at a press conference that the country’s President Marcos Marcos will visit China next week, that is, from January 3 to 5 next year. During the period, the two countries will hold a meeting of heads of state, and Marcos will discuss the South China Sea issue and seek energy cooperation with China.
He also said that the two sides are expected to sign a major agreement and establish a direct communication channel to ensure that China and the Philippines can maintain necessary contacts on South China Sea disputes and other issues to avoid misjudgments. In other words, the two countries intend to use this meeting to completely cool down the South China Sea issue.
In fact, there have been many episodes between China and the Philippines during this period. For example, not long ago, the US media hyped that China was "carrying out large-scale land reclamation in the Nansha Islands." Although the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of my country has clarified that this was not the case, the Philippines did not seem satisfied.
Afterwards, the Philippine Ministry of Defense issued a statement, requiring China to abide by the "rules-based international order" and not take actions that would aggravate the situation. At the same time, they also strengthened the deployment of military forces on some islands and reefs in the Nansha Islands.
Therefore, many Western media have speculated whether China-Philippines relations will take a turn for the worse in 2023, and whether China's relations with ASEAN countries will be negatively affected. Now the Philippine Ministry of Foreign Affairs has taken the initiative to release the news that Marcos is about to visit China, which undoubtedly refutes the unfounded speculations from the outside world.
First of all, the fact that the meeting between the leaders of China and the Philippines can be facilitated is precisely the most direct manifestation of the stability of the relations between the two countries. Secondly, after taking office, Philippine President Marcos emphasized many times that the South China Sea issue is not the whole of China-Philippines relations and is willing to make friends with all countries, including China. This shows that Marcos is well aware of the current situation.
Of course, knowing what is known does not mean that the right choice will be made. From a practical perspective, the best choice for the Philippines on the South China Sea issue is naturally to return to the negotiating table and work with neighboring countries to jointly promote the implementation of the "South China Sea Code of Conduct" as soon as possible to prevent the South China Sea dispute from being used by countries outside the region and becoming a starting point for undermining regional peace.
This is not only in the interest of China and the Philippines, but also in the overall interest of ASEAN countries, so we will continue to persuade and remind the Marcos government to meet China halfway on this issue and not to become a pawn of external forces.
In the past two years, Vietnam, which has always been more active on the South China Sea issue, has deliberately kept a low profile and has not followed the footsteps of Washington . Instead, it has strengthened relations with China. This shows that they have realized that the United States' commitment is not reliable.
But unfortunately, although the Philippines does not intend to antagonize China, the Marcos government's tendency to move closer to the United States is very obvious. This is something we have to admit. Some time ago, the United States and the Philippines held a large-scale military exercise for the first time in several years. US Vice President Harris paid a personal visit to Manila and boarded Palawan Island near the South China Sea.
During his visit, Harris not only expressed support for the so-called "South China Sea Arbitration", but also reiterated its security commitment to the Philippines, emphasizing that once the country's military is attacked, the United States will provide necessary protection to the Philippines in accordance with the " US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty ".
As the saying goes, nothing goes unnoticed. Everyone can see that Harris's visit to the Philippines at this time is just to encourage the latter to stir up trouble on the South China Sea issue, but Marcos still graciously accepted the US's solicitation.
To put it bluntly, the Marcos government’s line is very clear. Although they will not deliberately choose sides between China and the United States, they will act as a wall to the side that offers the most benefits. The Philippines is still trying to use Washington’s influence to check and balance China in the South China Sea in order to maximize its interests.
Therefore, one thing we need to make clear is that there are obvious differences between Marcos and his predecessor Duterte. At least he will never be as anti-American as Duterte. So how to rebuild relations with the Philippines under the new situation is an urgent problem that needs to be solved at the moment.
Frankly speaking, Marcos’s visit to China was obviously with the mission of “managing the crisis”, which shows that he did not want a conflict to occur. But how can the United States give up and try to level the playing field between China and the United States without falling into trouble? This requires the Philippines to show extremely high political wisdom.
