From an international perspective, Azerbaijan and Armenia are both inconspicuous small countries, but they are definitely the kind of small countries that are "very trouble-provoking".
Although both countries once belonged to Soviet franchise , their grudges and hatreds have lasted for hundreds of years, and it can be said that it is "it is difficult to live in peace."
When the Soviet Union was still there, there was a "big brother" suppressing it, and the conflict between the two countries seemed to be "controlled", but when the Soviet Union itself was shaking and even collapsed, the conflict between the two countries completely broke out.
In the 1980s and 1990s, border conflicts broke out between Azerbaijan and Armenia. In recent years, the conflicts between the two countries have not eased, and conflicts still occur from time to time. So why do they have such "deep hatred" between them, and where will the future of the two countries go?
Nan-Karabakh region: The root cause of the conflict between the two countries
Azerbaijan and Armenia are both outside Caucasus . Although the two countries belong to different ethnic groups, from a geographical perspective, these two countries are considered close neighbors. They say that distant relatives are not as good as close neighbors. So why do Azerbaijan and Armenia frequently break out in conflicts?
The main problems lie in the Nagorno-Karabakh region and the Nagjichewan region.
Narkar The full name of the region is Nagorno Karabakh, which is an area with an area of about 4,400 square kilometers. Most of the people living on this land are Armenians, but the problem is that this land belongs to Azerbaijan.
On the other hand, between Armenia and Iran, there is a land with an area of about 5,500 square kilometers that lives on most Azerbaijanis, that is, Najichevan, this land is the "enclave" of Azerbaijan.
In fact, it seems that it is not a big deal for different ethnic groups to live in a country. For example, there are 56 ethnic groups in our country, but it has not affected the peace and development in our country. But for Armenia and Azerbaijan, things seem to be a little different.
Armenians are an ancient nation that once had a very glorious history. Even Romans were defeated by the Armenians. However, when Armenian Kingdom went to an end, Armenian was ruled by Ottoman Türkiye .
Armenians did not live well under the rule of Turkey , mainly because they believe in Orthodox Church, while Ottoman Türkiye believes in Islam .
Religious conflict has become the most acute contradiction between the two nations. Moreover, when Ottoman Turkey later lost to Tsarist Russia , Ottoman Turkey blamed all its "sin" on Armenia, claiming that Armenia believes in Orthodoxism like Tsarist Russia, it must be that they "betrayed" themselves and set off a "massacre" against the Armenians. Data shows that this "massacre" caused the deaths of about 1.5 million Armenians.
The history of the Azerbaijani people is much shorter. The Azerbaijani people are greatly influenced by Iran, namely Persia, and believe in Islam and have better relations with Turkey.
In other words, in fact, Armenia and Azerbaijan have "natural" contradictions and conflicts, but at the beginning, these contradictions had not erupted.
The real outbreak of conflicts between the two countries is actually closely related to Türkiye and the Soviet Union. The Nagorno-Karabakh region was originally a settlement for the Azerbaijanis in Ottoman Turkey, but due to the tightening pressure from Tsarist Russia, Ottoman Türkiye finally handed over the land to Tsarist Russia.
With the support of Tsarist Russian government , Armenians moved into the Nagorno-Karabakh region in large numbers, and thus gradually became the main ethnic group in the local area. However, the Armenians did not expect that the land would be completely within Azerbaijan, which would make them "surrounded" by Muslims.
After the collapse of Ottoman Türkiye, Armenia and Azerbaijan successively joined the Soviet Union.
At the beginning, in order to win over Armenia, the Soviet Union distributed the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Nakhchevan and Zangzur to Armenia; but later, in order to establish good relations with Turkey, the Soviet Union not only "send" a large piece of land in Armenia to Turkey, but also the Nagorno-Karabakh region and Nakhchevan to Azerbaijan.
As a result, Armenia was dissatisfied and kept asking for the reclaim of this land - especially the Nagorno-Karabakh region. After all, the Armenians lived there, which laid the groundwork for the later conflict between the two countries.
But Armenia's protests were suppressed by the Soviet Union. Until the late 1980s, the Soviet Union itself was shaky, and of course it could not control the conflict between the franchisees.
A "less known" border war
Since 1987, various conflicts have gradually erupted between Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, the world situation was changing at that time, and few people in the world have noticed the conflict between these two small countries.
At the beginning, conflicts broke out between the two countries. Due to religious conflicts, conflicts between the Azerbaijani and Armenians in the same country began to break out, and the two countries also began to try to drive out the so-called "pagans" in the country. As time goes by, the behavior of both sides even gradually began to evolve into "ethnic cleansing."
Therefore, the Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh region were eager to escape, but because the land was surrounded by the Azerbaijani people, it was difficult for them to find a way to escape.
At this time, Soviet officers who also believed in Orthodox Church showed great sympathy for the Armenians. They assisted the local Armenians in establishing their own armed forces, and even controlled the entire Nagorno-Karabakh region. Later, they established an "autonomous prefecture" locally, hoping to directly join Armenia through a referendum.
Azerbaijan certainly refused, and this area has become a key area for the two tribes to break out in conflict.
On the other side, the Azerbaijanis living in Nakhchevan also established their own armed forces and announced the establishment of the Nakhchevan Autonomous Republic.
The place is located in the "backyard" of Armenia. It is blocked from Armenia and is also a place where serious violent conflicts between the two tribes.
Before the collapse of the Soviet Union , the conflict between the two tribes could still be controlled. After 1991, the conflict between the two countries broke out completely. They officially launched a battle with the divided former Soviet military equipment.
0 In early January 1992, the two countries had their first battle. Due to the chaos in Azerbaijan's command, the Armenians quickly shot down several Azerbaijan's air force aircraft. It was not until the end of January that Azerbaijan shot down two Russian m-8 helicopters , which were supporting the Armenian ground attack - this was Azerbaijan's first "result" in this conflict.
In the following two months, the conflict between the two countries gradually calmed down until April 1992, Azerbaijani Kubanov hijacked an Russian Air Force Su-25 ground attack aircraft defected to Azerbaijan, causing the conflict between the two countries to break out again. After Kubanov hijacked the Su-25, he shot down two Mi-8 helicopters over the Nagorno-Karabakh region and attacked several aircraft. It was not until two months later that Kubanov was shot down by the Armenians.
Overall, Azerbaijan has been at a disadvantage in the early stage. The Armenians not only completely occupied the Nagorno-Karabakh region, but their "sphere of influence" also expanded to the surrounding "Laqin Corridor".
At the end of June 1992, Azerbaijan began to fight back. Although it failed to truly cut off the Rachin Corridor, its bombing of the Armenians still put huge pressure on the latter.
After entering July 1992, the battle between the two sides became more intense. The Armenians' access to and from the Nagorno-Karabakh region was almost difficult to maintain, and they were almost trapped in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
However, even if the supply difficulties are difficult, the Armenians still insist on resisting. Even if Moscow tries to mediate, the front-line commanders of both sides continue to fight regardless of the situation.
This war lasted until 1993. According to data released by Armenia, Azerbaijan lost a total of 10 aircraft in this war.
may have been to restore the decline, Azerbaijan suddenly launched a new round of attacks and shot down three Armenian fighter jets in the next 5 days.
At the end of January 1993, under the attention of the international community, Armenia and Azerbaijan began a new round of peace negotiations. Unlike the nearly ineffective peace negotiations before, this negotiation quickly reached an agreement. Obviously, the two small countries had long been exhausted by the war and could only accept peace.
But this peace was also short-lived, because since the spring, Armenia has suddenly launched a new round of attacks on Azerbaijan, and it is obvious that it defeated the latter in a planned and step-by-step manner, and also "harvested" 12 T-72 main battle tanks in Azerbaijan .
Then, Armenia took advantage of the defeat in the Azerbaijan war and civil strife to launch an attack on Agdam near the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and captured him in the early morning of July 25, 1993.
It is worth mentioning that today, Agdam has become an uninhabited "buffer zone". Local residents either go to other areas or move directly to Iran.
This major incident led to the resignation of the domestic president and defense minister of Azerbaijan, and Azerbaijan's new president Mamedov took office. Because he was an experienced veteran himself and was obviously better at commanding the war, under his arrangement, Azerbaijan cut off the Rachin Corridor again.
is just a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It can always be described as "for and forth"; both sides attacked each other fiercely and suffered heavy losses. It was not until May 12, 1994 that the two sides reached a formal truce agreement.
After that, although there were occasional conflicts between the two countries, it can basically be said that peace was maintained, especially after Azerbaijan discovered oil and natural gas, he paid more attention to the development of the oil industry and temporarily put aside the contradiction with Armenia.
The two countries are still in constant conflict today
However, the contradiction between Armenia and Azerbaijan has never been completely eliminated, they have only temporarily diverted their attention. More than 20 years after the ceasefire, the two countries broke out again in September 2020.
The focus of the contradiction this time is the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Although the international community still generally believes that the Nagorno-Karabakh region belongs to Azerbaijan, this does not prevent Armenia from accusing Azerbaijan of launching "invasion" on its "territory"; while Azerbaijan claims that it was Armenia's first attack, and they are just "attacking back".
Both sides have their own opinions and have announced their wartime state one after another. The people of the two countries have also taken to the streets or supported their countries on social media. It seems that only ordinary people in the Nagorno-Karabakh region "suffered". Air defense alarms often sound in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and every household dares not "turn on the lights" at night, for fear of becoming the target of drones.
Media reports show that there were at least three large-scale wars in the region between the two countries, and the war also spread to Azerbaijan's second largest city, , Jia , and at least 400 people died in this war.
But this time, Azerbaijan regained the Nagorno-Karabakh region controlled by Armenia, and Azerbaijani President Aliyev also took the first lady to inspect the area personally.
0 In the early morning of October 10, 2020, under the mediation of Russian , Armenia and Azerbaijan finally agreed to a ceasefire, bringing the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which has suffered from war, back to peace again.
Afterwards, analysts said that the conflict actually broke out because both ruling parties hoped to consolidate their ruling status of by "external toughness".
Originally, there were conflicts and disputes between the two countries. When they both hope to show their tough measures to the outside world and stimulate nationalist sentiment, the Nagorno-Karabakh region became an excellent "explosion point".
Of course, there is another view that this conflict is a means for Azerbaijani President Aliyev to alleviate the oil crisis . In 2016, Aliyev stimulated domestic sentiment through the "Four Days War" and alleviated the social conflicts caused by the decline in oil prices. This time, Aliyev was just "using the same trick again."
This time the peace lasted for only two years. In September 2022, border conflict broke out again between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with more than 200 casualties on both sides.
From this situation, it seems very difficult for the two countries to maintain long-term peace. Especially in the current situation where the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is still not resolved and Europe is facing a crisis of energy shortage, the situation between the two countries will become more complicated.
Because Azerbaijan has proven geological oil reserves exceed 4 billion tons, the proven oil reserves in the Caspian region also exceed 2 billion tons. At the same time, the country has also proven 2.55 trillion cubic meters of natural gas.
That is, this is a country with quite rich oil and gas resources. Analysts point out that Europe is likely to support Azerbaijan for energy, and we know that Russia has always supported Armenia more, that is, the situation between the two countries is likely to continue to deteriorate.
Of course, some analysts believe that Russia's attention is now on Ukraine, and it is not very likely that it will really interfere in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but this does not affect the "anytime outbreak" of conflicts between the two countries.
Azerbaijan and Armenia have "territorial demands" for the same land. This is a conflict that seems irreconcilable now between them. Obviously, the possibility of continued conflict between the two countries in the future still exists.
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Author: Rewant
Editor: Lin Yan
