On December 7, the German media published an article interviewing Merkel, during which Merkel said that France and Germany promoted the Minsk Agreement negotiations in 2014 to "compromise time" so that Ukraine could have the opportunity to enhance its military strength. She also said that "everyone knew" at that time that the conflict was only temporarily suspended and the problem had not been resolved.
Merkel's statement is tantamount to telling Russia that the original Minsk negotiations were just a "white guise". Neither France, Germany nor Ukraine had the intention to abide by and implement the agreement. Russia was the only one who was kept in the dark from beginning to end.
Therefore, Putin directly expressed his surprise and disappointment after learning about Merkel's statement, saying that this proved the necessity and correctness of Russia's actions, and said that he regretted not realizing that this was a scam earlier.
Now, Merkel's statement has once again reduced Russia's trust in the West, while also increasing the contradictions and tensions between the two sides, and making peace talks more difficult.
However, before the matter of Russia being "cheated" passed, another piece of bad news came. On the 30th, former French President Hollande said in an interview with Ukrainian media that the 2014 Minsk Agreement was indeed one of the strategies to buy time for Ukraine. He also said that Merkel's approach at the time and her current description of the nature of the matter were "correct."
What does this mean?
This is like Merkel telling Putin that after France and Germany deceived Russia, Hollande stood up and told Putin - Merkel was right, France and Germany did deceive Russia at that time. What does this make Putin think? What does Russia think?
In addition, Hollande also said that when Russia fails, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will come to an end. At this time, the Minsk Agreement can be "restored" and a legal framework accepted by all parties can be established.
I have to say that Hollande really dares to think about it. The old Minsk Agreement has not been understood yet, and now he wants to restore the agreement after Russia failed. This is undoubtedly adding salt to Russia's wound.
Among these, at least three details are worthy of attention.
1, Hollande does have a certain say in the Minsk negotiations. Hollande was president of France from 2012 to 2017, and the Minsk negotiations took place in 2014 during his term.
Therefore, like Merkel, Hollande is also one of the "parties".
2 Hollande has a very tough attitude towards Russia. During his time in office, Hollande repeatedly advocated tough policies against Russia, such as adopting "maximum sanctions", but this was not adopted by other EU member states, causing his support rate to drop again and again. At the highest, the disapproval rate reached 97%. This was a key factor why he did not choose to run for a second term.
From this perspective, Hollande probably played a lot of role when formulating the strategy of "deceiving Russia" at that time.
Now, Hollande has spoken out again. Obviously, he is not just supporting Merkel on the surface, but more importantly, perhaps he wants to provoke confrontation between Russia and the West to further put pressure on Russia.
3, Hollande’s statement will not only further expand the contradictions and opposition between Russia and the West, but will also once again reduce the trust between Russia and the West.
In particular, Hollande mentioned that after Russia's failure, the Minsk Agreement can be restored. The subtext is nothing more than wanting to "continue to deceive Russia" or formulating a new framework to facilitate the West to continue to put pressure on Russia.
But the problem is, once it’s new, it’s the second time it’s familiar. How can Putin fall for the same trick twice?
In short, Merkel's original statement has had a considerable impact and blow on Putin, especially since Merkel and Putin have a good relationship, but in the end they will inevitably end up being "cheated".
Therefore, it will only become more difficult for the West to seek dialogue with Russia and gain Putin's trust.
One thing to note is that, perhaps because of her statement, it will bring major changes to the situation between Russia and Ukraine. In the interview, Merkel had implicitly rejected the possibility of mediating the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Prior to this, due to Merkel's great influence and good relationship with Putin, she was once regarded by the outside world as the best candidate to mediate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Now, Merkel has personally said that the 2014 Minsk negotiations were fake. Putin feels angry and disappointed. Merkel has obviously lost Putin's trust invisibly, and has lost the opportunity to mediate the situation between Russia and Ukraine.
At present, the outside world believes that the person who has the hope of successfully mediating the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has changed from Merkel to Turkish President Erdogan, and recently Erdogan was nominated as a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize. . If he can finally succeed in mediating, he may really win the Nobel Prize..
Of course, compared to winning the Nobel Prize, the international community is more concerned and looking forward to or the early end of this protracted Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Now, 2022 has passed, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine should stop.
