In a year, summer and winter are undoubtedly the seasons when electricity rushes wildly. Due to factors of the international situation and some self-inflicted consequences in Europe, Russia directly gave and EU the "end of life". This is a big trouble for Europe, because one-third or one-quarter of Europe's electricity is inseparable from natural gas .
As the largest economy in Europe, Germany is not sitting still and has set its sights on Nord Stream 2 . So, in addition to ensuring that the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline is not interrupted, can it save the German economy? Relying solely on part of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is estimated to be insufficient for Germany's huge natural gas demand. So, is there any hope that Germany will be able to completely overcome the natural gas crisis in the future?
To ensure continuous gas supply, Germany restarts part of Nord Stream 2
Although Russia has suspended natural gas supply to Europe, whether Beixi 1 really fails or Russia restricts exports, Germany still finds the North Stream 1. Stream 1 natural gas is blocked and replaced. Russia now does not restrict Germany's use of Nord Stream 2. After all, there is not much difference between Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2. They are just one for land transportation and the other for sea transportation.
According to a report by the Associated Press on June 24, 2022, Germany is now considering expropriating part of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline. How does Germany want to requisition it? It is said that it is preparing to nationalize the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in Germany, and then connect this part of the pipeline to the natural gas terminal on the Baltic Sea side.
In the German part of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline, Germany is said to be planning to make a relatively major change. The German Ministry of Economic Affairs is currently discussing with representatives of the Nord Stream 2 Holding Company and plans to use this section of the pipeline to transport natural gas to southern Germany.
Such a fierce operation by Germany is probably not what Russia likes to see. After all, Russia will completely miss this part of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Of course, let’s not talk about the impact on Russia. Germany now has part of Nord Stream 2 in its possession, which will undoubtedly alleviate Germany’s domestic natural gas gap and void.
Can this move save the German economy, which is on the verge of collapse?
On June 23, 2022, German Economy Minister Habeck said in an interview with German TV station ZDF that day, panic, panic, start to panic. Russia’s current measures to reduce natural gas supply to Germany may trigger a crisis in the German energy market. The collapse is similar to the one that triggered the global financial crisis due to the Lehman Brothers incident. To put it bluntly, the German economy is currently on the verge of collapse.
However, to be honest, even if Germany requisitions part of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas, it is estimated that it will be difficult to save the German economy. First of all, according to S. Pfister issued a public statement on the same day. According to this statement, the German companies interviewed by the agency have declined in satisfaction with the current operating conditions of the industry, and have become more pessimistic and disappointed about the future outlook. All of this has Risks stemming from natural gas shortages.
Germany is now so negative about its own business conditions, which will undoubtedly affect the development and progress of the German economy. If you want to eliminate this sentiment, you need to completely solve the supply of natural gas. However, Germany has not. It has requisitioned part of Beixi II. The No. 1 pipeline is probably a drop in the bucket.
Secondly, Germany is not just detaining Beixi 2, but also building this part of the pipeline to the Baltic Sea and to southern Germany. This means another large amount of expenditure, and Germany’s current economy is not optimistic. On June 21, 2022, the German IWH Economic Research Institute lowered its economic forecast for Germany in 2022, down to 1.5%. You know, in March this year, this organization predicted that Germany’s economic growth rate would still be 3.1%.
Look, even Germany’s own economic research institutions are not optimistic about the German economy. What does this show? This illustrates the current economic situation in Germany. It is still unknown whether this move will succeed, let alone save the German economy.
In short, regardless of whether Russia's natural gas supply to Germany can return to normal in the future, especially with the current rise in natural gas prices in Europe, it is estimated that it will be difficult to save Germany's economic development. The importance of natural gas to Germany is evident. So, is there any hope that Germany can survive the natural gas crisis in the future?
Is there any hope that Germany can survive the natural gas crisis in the future?
In fact, this should be no problem. First of all, on June 27, 2022, the EU reached an energy storage agreement. In addition to continuing to require the natural gas storage level to reach 80% before the winter of 2022, it also stated that the EU Member states are obliged to share natural gas, and the EU has 27 member states.
Secondly, according to the UAE report on June 26, 2022, the UAE will send relevant representatives to Germany on June 28, 2022 to conduct in-depth talks on the cooperation between the two sides hydrogen and clean energy. Some may say that water far away cannot quench thirst nearby. However, it is said that if the talks go smoothly, the first batch of hydrogen and other clean energy sources in the UAE will be shipped out this year. It can be seen that even without Russian natural gas, Germany does not have no alternatives in terms of energy.
Finally, in terms of natural gas, Russia has never said that it will permanently suspend supplies to Germany. According to a report by Russian Radio on June 23, 2022, Gazprom will not supply Beixi 1 due to the lack of parts. No. 1 natural gas pipeline is undergoing corresponding annual maintenance, and natural gas supply will be stopped for ten days. In other words, Russia may not resume natural gas supply to Germany in the future. Germany's current natural gas shortage may be only temporary.
Summary
Germany plans to restart part of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline to ensure sufficient natural gas supply and to ensure that Germany’s current economy does not go to the edge of collapse. Although this move has a mitigating effect, it is estimated that it will be completely resolved. Unlikely. However, as far as the current reality is concerned, Germany may not be able to survive the natural gas crisis, but it will just have to endure a period of no natural gas.
