As we all know, our country has always had the title of "the most populous country in the world". Even during the Shang and Zhou dynasties more than 2,800 years ago, our country had already started a population survey. However, in 2022, that is, in March of this year, it was reported online - "India announced the 2021 demographic results. India's population reached 14.157 billion, and our country’s population in 2021 is 1.4126 billion, with India leading by about 3 million, becoming the world’s most populous country.”
So, is it true that my country’s population is no longer the world’s largest country. ? Where does this data come from?
It is understood that this data is not officially released by India, but comes from a medical consulting website in India. There are big problems with the source and calculation method of this data - the website is based on the birth rate of 1,000 people in India per second. It is calculated based on the death rate and is dynamically refreshed.
According to this calculation method, India’s population will increase by 30 million from 2020 to 2021! In our country, the growth should be more than 10 million, but the actual growth is only about 480,000. The data generated by the calculation method
is undoubtedly very unreliable, let alone internationally recognized.
Medical website data
However, although our country is still the most populous country in the world, as our country's population continues to age, one data has not been ideal.
As of 2021, the birth rate of the national resident population is 7.5‰, while the death rate has reached 7.2‰. It is not difficult to see from this data that the two are very close. When the two data intersect, it means that our country's population may face negative growth.
According to National Bureau of Statistics data, at the end of 2021, the national population increased by only 480,000 compared with the end of the previous year, the increase hit a 60-year low, and the birth population fell for the fifth consecutive year.
In order to cope with the problem of population aging, in October 2015, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China decided to fully liberalize the two-child policy.
At this point, the one-child policy , which has been implemented for more than 30 years, has officially come to an end.
However, although our country has fully liberalized the two-child policy, the birth rate has not improved, but has become even more severe.
From 2018 to 2021, the national birth population has declined for five consecutive years. This also means that our country’s population has already sounded the alarm.
According to the seventh census data, my country's total fertility rate in 2020 is 1.3. Many experts estimate that the total fertility rate in 2021 may be 1.1-1.2, which is an ultra-low fertility level. In other words, the future population situation will be even more severe.
ps:
The total fertility rate refers to the average number of children per couple and is an important indicator for estimating future population trends.
Once upon a time, when our country’s economy was not as developed as it is now, all kinds of resources and environment were very poor, but at that time every family was willing to have more children. This should be deeply felt by those born in the 1970s.
Who would have thought that as a country with a large population, Perfect would actually need to worry about the fertility rate.
Some people may say that our country has long been the most populous country in the world, with a population as high as 1.4 billion. Why does it still need to be born? What's more, the demographic dividend will pass sooner or later, and quantity does not necessarily represent quality.
Regarding this issue, some experts have pointed out two aspects:
â‘ Population = labor force. Population is very important for a city or even a country. Maintaining stable and reasonable population growth is crucial to a country's economic development. And our country, precisely because of its population of 1.4 billion, has made our country's economic development more rapid and stable. Once the population decreases, it means a decrease in the labor force. While the quality increases, the stability and growth of quantity must also be ensured.
②The aging population. In terms of total fertility rate, 2.1 is usually regarded as the population generation replacement level internationally.That is, after accounting for the risk of death, the average couple would need to have about 2.1 children to equalize the numbers between the two generations. In addition to the fact that the birth population cannot keep up, the problem of aging in our country is also becoming more and more serious.
So, why is it that while people’s living conditions are getting better and better, the fertility rate is not going up? In other words, why are young people today unwilling to have children? Regarding this issue, experts directly pointed out the "three big mountains" that affect the population's fertility rate- housing, education and medical care.
â‘ Housing:
As we all know, today’s housing prices are not low.
Taking first-tier popular cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as of the end of 2021, the average house price in these cities has reached more than 70,000 per square meter. A 100-square-meter house costs as much as 7 million+. Calculated based on a down payment of 30%, the price starts at 2.1 million!
This is unaffordable for many families. Even after paying the down payment, the monthly mortgage loan pressure is self-evident.
Some people may say that since we can’t afford to buy a house, renting a house can also solve the housing problem.
However, in cities, it is not only housing prices that are expensive, but rents are also not low. This reminds me of a "hot search news" a few days ago - there are 22 people living in a house with one, two bedrooms and two living rooms in Shanghai.
As you can see, what catches the eye are the four high and low beds, suitcases, clothes, etc. placed everywhere.
Of course, as soon as the news came out, the relevant person in charge immediately organized personnel to clean up.
Some people may also say that since buying and renting a house is very stressful, why can't we change cities?
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2000, the average sales price of residential commercial housing nationwide was 1,948 yuan/square meter. But in 2020, the average sales price rose to 9,980 yuan/square meter, an increase of 512%.
Today, this number has already exceeded 10,000.
Based on this average data, a house of 100 square meters also costs 1 million. Calculated based on the same 30% down payment, a down payment of 300,000 is also required, as well as a mortgage of 700,000.
In addition, the jobs of many young people today are not easy. Many women choose to leave their jobs during pregnancy in order to take good care of their health. Every aspect of life can bring a lot of stress to this young family.
② Education:
Some experts pointed out that the future education of children is also a top priority for young families.
According to China Education Finance Household Survey data, whether in big cities or small counties, children’s education expenditures account for more than half of the family’s per capita income.
In addition, the idea of ​​" hoping that children will become dragons and daughters becoming phoenixes" is deeply ingrained. In order to let their children win at the starting line, parents have racked their brains.
This can most easily be seen from the popular "school district housing" in recent years.
The prices of many houses have more than doubled due to school district problems. In order to let their children enjoy better educational resources, many parents have moved their families into small and dilapidated houses; in order to obtain a student status, they are still willing to pay more than 100,000 yuan per square meter or hundreds of thousands per square meter.
There are also various tutoring classes, interest classes, etc...
③Medical care:
Expensive medical expenses are also a "big mountain" before the fertility rate.
As time goes by, the level of medical care is constantly improving, but medical expenditures are also much higher than in the past.
As mentioned earlier, many women choose to leave their jobs during pregnancy to wait for childbirth. In order to enjoy the medical insurance policy, you must pay social security fees yourself.
In addition, as parents grow older, it is inevitable that their physical functions will decline. For many one-child families, they have to bear not only the medical expenses of the child, but also the parents of both parties.
I would like to ask, how many families are qualified to respond to the birth promotion policy?
To sum up, housing, education and medical care are the "three big mountains" that affect the population fertility rate.
Therefore, if we want to fundamentally solve the problem of population fertility, these three mountains must be solved.
In fact, under the double reduction policy, the pressure on students has been greatly reduced, including the new school district housing policies introduced in various cities, and the ultra-high-priced school district housing is gradually declining, and the educational pressure on children in the future will also be greatly alleviated.
In terms of medical treatment, the reimbursement ratio in various cities is also constantly increasing. The maternity subsidy after childbirth is enough to cover all expenses during pregnancy. In addition, many drugs are gradually included in medical insurance, and everyone's medical pressure is gradually improved.
The issue of housing is of course the most important.
Since 2016, "housing is for living, not for speculation" has now become "focusing on stability." Control the rise in house prices in many aspects and prevent a rebound in house prices from occurring. Housing prices have finally stabilized in the past few years.
In the second half of 2021, the direction of the property market has also changed, and housing prices across the country have experienced an unprecedented decline.
In addition to lower housing prices, many cities have successively introduced various favorable policies such as home purchase subsidies and lowering down payment percentages, which not only reduce the pressure on housing prices, but also lower the threshold for home purchase.
The interest rate on mortgage loans has also rarely dropped to 4.25%.
In addition, many cities have also introduced preferential policies for , , and three-child families, which not only provide support in housing prices, but also provide additional home purchase qualifications.
It is not difficult to see the country’s determination to tear down the “big mountain” of housing.
Some experts also directly made suggestions - should actually reduce the burden on education. For example, integrating preschool education into the compulsory education system will directly reduce the cost of children's schooling, or it may cover the children until they are 18 years old.
Regarding the housing issue, families with two children or above enjoy priority in public rental housing, and also enjoy direct discounts on home purchases.
In terms of medical care, for families with two children and above, living and medical subsidies are provided to reduce the pressure from medical care.
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