China News Service , October 18 (Wang Yongle) Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the consumer price index (CPI) of 31 provinces in September 2022. China News Service found that in September, the year-on-year increase in CPI in 28 provinces was higher than last month. Among them, Sichuan rose by 3.8% at the highest and Beijing rose by 2.1%.
16 provinces CPI growth is lower than the national
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in September 2022, the national CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year. While the year-on-year increase hit a new high in the past two and a half years, it was lower than market expectations for the third consecutive month.
China News Service found that the CPI of 31 provinces rose year-on-year in September, with the number of provinces with an increase of higher or lower than the national level respectively, and 13 and 12 in August. In addition, it is worth noting that only three provinces, including Hainan, Guangxi and Shaanxi, had lower gains than in August, while the year-on-year CPI growth in 28 provinces was higher than last month, while the gains in 23 provinces fell last month.
Specifically, the growth rates of 10 provinces including Sichuan, Chongqing, Hubei, Guizhou, Liaoning, Xinjiang, Jilin, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, and Gansu were higher than the national level, among which 7 provinces in the "3" era, and only Hainan and Sichuan last month; the growth rates of Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Qinghai and Ningxia were the same as the national level; the growth rates of 16 provinces including Hunan, Hainan, Inner Mongolia, Shanghai, Anhui, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Tibet, and Beijing were lower than the national level, among which Beijing and Henan returned to the "2 era".
In addition, in terms of increase or decrease, Guizhou ranked first in growth, reaching 1.2 percentage points, and Hainan’s largest decline was 0.5 percentage points.
Everbright Macro Gao Ruidong team analyzed that the epidemic repeatedly suppressed consumer demand, continued to affect policy regulation, and weakened imported inflation such as crude oil, are the three factors that led to lower than expected CPI operations in the third quarter.
Chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng pointed out that the year-on-year rise in CPI in September was mainly due to the rapid rise in prices of pork and fresh vegetables in that month, offsetting the impact of the price of refined oil and pushing up the overall CPI increase; however, the core CPI in September fell at a low year-on-year decrease, indicating that the current overall price situation is still stable.
How to move forward in the future? After
hit a new high in the past two and a half years, institutions have diverged on the later CPI forecasts.
In Wang Qing's view, although pork prices may still have a certain upward trend, under the influence of measures such as the central reserve pork supply, the future growth trend will slow down. It is expected that the year-on-year increase in pork prices will decline in October. At the same time, as the weather-influence factors receded, the year-on-year increase in fresh vegetables prices in October will be significantly narrowed. After the food CPI rose rapidly for seven consecutive months, it may turn downward in October.
Wang Qing predicts that CPI may slow down slightly to around 2.7% year-on-year in October. September is likely to be the highest point of the year-on-year increase in CPI this year, and the price level in the fourth quarter will continue to be below 3.0%.
Pacific Securities analyst You Chunye believes that starting from October, the CPI tail factor has dropped sharply. As the core CPI continues to be sluggish, unless pork prices show similar performance in the "super pig cycle" in 2019, the possibility of CPI hitting a new high in the fourth quarter is very low. It is expected that the year-on-year increase of 2.8% in September will be the highest point for the year, and the year-on-year increase of 2.4% in October.
Northeast Securities chief macro analyst Shen Xinfeng also analyzed that in September, the food item is the main support item, and the core CPI is the main drag item. Among them, affected by the increase in consumption demand during the holidays, fresh vegetables, eggs and aquatic products rose by 6.1, 5.6 and 3.3 percentage points year-on-year compared with the previous month. Looking back, combined with the influence of the base, the CPI highs in 2022 have passed, and the CPI will decline significantly in October and November, and rebound in December, but the height is limited.
Western Securities macro report expects that CPI may reach a new high. Pork prices have risen further since the National Day, which may continue to put upward pressure on CPI. There is a possibility of a new high year-on-year growth rate in CPI in the next six months. However, the income and consumption of the residents' sector are still relatively weak, and the core CPI may remain relatively low.
Ding Yujia, a researcher at Zhixin Investment Research Institute, also believes that pig prices have not diminished, and the prices of vegetables and other foods are still supported under the peak consumption season. It is expected that CPI will remain stable at the September level in October. (China Business Network APP)
