Cailianshe October 25th News The latest consumer confidence index in the United States fell to a low in nearly three months, indicating that widespread inflation and concerns about recession are having a negative impact on consumers.
On Tuesday (October 25), local time, the US Consultative Conference Board released the October consumer confidence index of 102.5, the lowest reading since August, significantly lower than the market's previous expectations of 105.9, and down 5.3 points from 107.8 last month.
(Source: American Consultative Committee)
Not only that, the consumer status index also dropped sharply from 150.2 in September to 138.9, and the index measuring consumer expectations for the outlook for the next six months also fell from 79.5 to 78.1. (Source: American Chamber of Commerce)
Chamber of Commerce Economic Indicators senior director Lynn Franco wrote in the report, "The confidence index fell in October after rising in August and September. At the same time, the status quo fell sharply, indicating that economic growth began to slow down in the fourth quarter."
He also said that the expectation index is below the 80 mark with recession symbol, indicating that consumers' expectations for the short term are still sluggish.
Franco pointed out that inflation concerns that began to fade in July rose again in October, with gasoline and food prices being the main drivers. In the short term, price pressures will continue to pose strong resistance to consumer confidence and spending, which may lead to challenges for retailers during the holiday shopping season.
Since March, the Federal Reserve has accumulated interest rate hikes 300 basis points. Analysts believe that as the US inflation situation has not been effectively alleviated, the market expects the Federal Reserve to continue aggressively raise interest rates.
Many analysts are worried that aggressive interest rate hikes will cause shocks in various areas of the economy, and the US labor market will show signs of slowing down, and consumers will pay the price.
In the report released today, consumers' evaluation of the labor market has also begun to become less optimistic. 45.2% of consumers said that jobs were "adequate", the lowest since April 2021; 12.7% believed that jobs were "hard to find", and this proportion rose to the highest since September last year.
Since personal consumption expenditure accounts for about 70% of the total U.S. economy, many analysts are worried that a sluggish consumer confidence will lead to a decline in consumer spending, which will drag down U.S. economic growth and further aggravate the risk of recession.
It is worth mentioning that there are only two weeks before the US midterm elections, and economic performance has become the most acute topic of the Republican Party attack on the Biden administration. Polls show Republicans have a decisive advantage in the House of Representatives, while the Senate is unpredictable.
Source: Cailianshe
Original title: The Fed raises interest rates wildly, prices have not improved: The US consumer confidence index falls back again as the midterm elections approach.
