In recent years, the baking industry has experienced a long period of market cultivation and development. The Internet has been continuously iteratively and evolved, the emergence of new retail, the expansion of consumption scenarios, and the expansion of consumer groups. The market capacity occupied by the baking industry has gradually increased.
now has reached 200 billion. However, in such a large-scale market, there are no industry giants like Starbucks. And last year, more than 100,000 stores were closed!
01
Bread and desserts decreased by 100,000 yuan a year, but the average customer price increased the highest!
Number of stores is the barometer of catering categories.
Judging from the number of stores included in Meituan Dianping, the number of bread and dessert stores ranks second. But it is worth noting that it has been declining throughout the year, from 650,000 at the beginning of the year to 550,000 at the end of the year, a decrease of 100,000 throughout the year.
From the perspective of order amount growth, beverage stores increased by 255% year-on-year, and bread and desserts increased by 161% year-on-year.
From the perspective of customer unit price, light food categories such as snacks, beverage stores, bread and desserts are rising, among which the unit price of bread and desserts has the highest increase. The unit price in 2017 was 49 yuan, which is 7 yuan more expensive than in 2016.
On the one hand, the number of stores decreased by 100,000 yuan a year, while the average customer unit price has been rising. At the same time, Starbucks, Heytea and Naixue have also entered the market across the border. What is the market for bread and desserts?
The famous financial writer Wu Xiaobo pointed out: When the new wave of consumption upgrading swept over, baking products will still be the bridgehead for catering brands to achieve change and the way for stores to capture the new middle class.
He said: "Cake shops ten or twenty years ago were often the most beautiful shops in the community. The people who buy cakes in the pastry shop must be the most fashionable people in the city and township, and those who have solved the problem of food and clothing.
It can be said that China's first generation of consumption upgrades was born in cake shops. In the current new wave of consumption upgrades, baking also assumes such functions."
02
200 billion+ baking industry has ushered in two major explosions in the past 30 years
Let us review, this 200 billion+ industry is almost the sum of the new tea drink + coffee industry. Before the explosion, it had been settled for nearly 30 years.
We investigated and visited multiple parties and compiled a brand "genealogy map" of the baking industry:
In history, the baking industry ushered in two golden ages: one concentrated in the 1990s, and the other is the present.
In the early 1990s, a large number of Taiwanese began to introduce advanced baking technology and service concepts into the mainland, opening the precedent for the "chain store" of hundreds of square meters to subvert 20 square meters of couple stalls.
In Shanghai in 1992, Taiwanese Luo Tianan founded Christine Cake. At its peak, it opened more than 1,200 stores nationwide, with more than 10,000 employees. It was listed in Hong Kong in 2012 and is known as the "first baking stock" by the industry.
In the same year, 25-year-old Luo Hong founded Holilai Cake World in Lanzhou, and launched various novel styles of cakes in the new model of " front store and back factory, and on-site production of ". After a shot, it entered the Northeast in 1994 and quickly occupied markets such as Jilin, Liaoning and Heilongjiang.
In 1999, after experiencing all kinds of new and old shops in Shanghai's bakery industry, Taiwanese Cai Mingrong held the money raised by his hometown and founded his own "Yizhiduo". Although it was not early to enter the market, he finally gained a place in Shanghai.
This year, Liu Qunli, the eldest baker in his family, started his business. A year later, he opened his first "Fujing Garden" on Renbao North Street, Zhengzhou with the borrowed 100,000 yuan. Now he owns more than 20 cake shops in Zhengzhou, and he is still thinking about "how to sell cakes better" every day.
In 2000, serial entrepreneur Zhu Hongchang acquired the Crown Cake Shop with 5 small workshops. After taking over, I met my ex-boy who owed wages and had no raw materials in the store. Later, I transformed the Crown into a self-selected supermarket-style franchise store, which eventually became popular in Wuhan.
or above is sorted out according to public information
. Then, in 2003, , Paris Batian , a subsidiary of South Korea SPC Group, and Singapore's bread new language , entered China. In 2005, Duo Le, a subsidiary of CJ Group, entered China.In 2007, the famous Taiwanese baking brand 85℃ opened its first store in mainland China in Shanghai, with first-tier cities as the main battlefield.
Chinese chain baking brands began to compete with foreign brands...
Later, with the drastic changes in the catering industry after 2012, with the "three highs and one low" and the taste buds being picky, the baking industry ushered in a "new melee".
·Day of Dole and Paris Betel are progressing slowly in the sinking to second- and third-tier cities;
·Christine has suffered continuous losses after its listing;
·Weitumei, Yizhiduo, Rosa, and Crown are held in the market;
·and 85℃ and Bread New Words have successively heard news of store closures in the northern market.
At the same time, e-commerce baking brands 21CAKE and Happy Cake have risen from the north and south.
Heytea and Naixue’s “tea + soft European bag ” modes have a share of the cross-border. In the consumption scenarios that young people prefer, European bags or sliced cakes have become high-value items that “check in” and post to Moments.
And in the tens of thousands of personal private baking markets, the "Internet celebrity brands" that have emerged have begun to deploy offline stores. For example, Zhudi Shop in Zhengzhou opened a store in the new landmark Haihui Center in 2017, entering the niche elite, and the cake drink of 65 yuan per serving is still very popular. Zheng Xianzhong, founder of
Yuemeik Cake, communicated with us: "Taiwan baking brands including 85℃, Yuanzu, Christine, and Yizhiduo came in to complete enlightenment for the mainland baking industry. Good baking has always been concentrated in Shanghai and Yangtze River Delta , and the International Baking Exhibition has also been in Shanghai. But in the past two years, the focus of the industry has been shifting."
03
The new rise and new crisis, "cannot escape the national brand" is subject to these 3 points?
There are many factors that make it difficult for many baking brands to get out of the regional market like brand crayfish restaurants.
1, founder gene.
As the cost of rent, labor and food in first-tier cities continues to soar, some regional brands that understand local consumer tastes better have ushered in the rise.
However, the professional and technical genes of many founders make them too close to the operation room and too far from the market, and are not good at team management and brand promotion. In addition, the family business genes make it difficult for team replacement, and most of them are limited to regional markets.
2. Agent system.
In order to quickly occupy the market, many brands choose to participate in the agency system when they go to the second and third lines, but they often have "out of control".
Some industry insiders pointed out that the closing of Bread New Language in a certain city actually has a lot to do with the agent. The first floor of the light restaurant should have been located on the first floor. In order to pursue the style, Wanda store opened on Jin Street. Later, when it was 700,000 to 800,000 yuan a month, it was closed for personal reasons.
3. Pattern constraints.
Although the baking industry maintains a net profit of about 38%, most of the funds are invested in equipment and cold chain distribution in back-end factories.
We noticed that the New Bread Language Shanghai Raffles Store starts to sell at discounts after 8:30 pm, and 0penoven often sells short at 19:00.
"If capital is given to Naixue 200 million, if it is opened for 2 million, it can quickly open 100 stores; but if it is given to the baking brand, it may be used first to destroy the supply chain and optimize the waste loss rate issue," Wang Junfei, who was once responsible for baking site selection and development, concluded.
04
Cross-border robbery capital boost may be the key point of breaking the deadlock in the new breakthrough point
, or the intervention of more and more cross-border players.
For example, the rise of e-commerce baking and private baking, the popularization of consumers' minds in elevator advertising and circle of friends, such as the popularization of "tea + soft European bags" driven by new tea drinks such as Naixue. For the popularization of new scenarios for young people, is regarded as an "accelerator" to drive growth.
Yang Qinghua is optimistic about this: "The entry of Heytea, Naixue and e-commerce bakeries has added new consumption scenarios, and behind it there is capital to promote the popularization of the market will be faster.
Everyone likes to drink tea does not mean that no one drinks Starbucks, but the same is true in the baking industry. Doing together has accelerated the new growth of the category.
Many bakeries promote milk-covered tea or dirty bags to drive sales, while blind followers are reshuffled, and the market has completed iteration."
Latest news shows that Naixue’s Tea and Bread New Language have reached a strategic cooperation and are about to enter the Singapore market. In addition, Chongqing Qinyuan in the regional market was acquired by Swire Group the year before last, which may be a variable signal for the future industry.
As Liang Weidong, founder of 56 Bread, said: It seems that you are building a brand in China, but in fact, young consumers are comparing you with all the excellent brands in the world. So, whether you are in a second-tier or fourth-tier city, your competitors are actually on the front line. "
New entrants are frequently moving, forcing many traditional baking brands to actively upgrade their scenarios, products and marketing. This may be a new turning point in the baking industry!
(Source: Wanlian Shanghui, Restaurant Boss Insider)
