01
During the weekend, several officials from the Federal Reserve made dovish remarks. Combined with the weakening of various economic data in the market, investors have turned to bet that the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of hiking interest rates.
market rumors, the Federal Reserve will seriously discuss at its November meeting whether to slow down interest rate hikes starting from December. This news is that Wall Street is full of confidence in the future.
Last night. US stocks continue to rise. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed back to 31,500 points, up more than 400 points throughout the day, the S&P 500 index is about to break through 3,800 points, and the Nasdaq index 's gains the lowest rate, but it also reached 0.9%, almost returning to 11,000 points.
02
The market's ups and downs are actually affected by expectations. The Federal Reserve is the key factor, and such a market is actually abnormal.
A month ago, the market believed that interest rates would be raised by 75 basis points in November and 50 basis points in December, and a total rate hike of 125 basis points before the end of this year.
But then, because of the rebound in inflation data, the forecast became a 75 basis point rate hike in November and December respectively.
Now, it has basically been determined that the rate hike of 75 basis points in November remains unchanged. It is currently predicted that the probability of a rate hike of 50 basis points in December has risen from the previous 34% to 43%, which is actually just that the predicted value has returned to a month ago.
But such changes have caused US stocks to fluctuate many times. Now many investment banks are beginning to predict that the stock market will rise soon.
In other words, the short-term trend of US stocks has little to do with the economy and is almost entirely determined by the Fed's interest rate hike and decision.
03
Most chip stocks rose yesterday. However, new energy vehicle has seen a sharp decline. Tesla fell 1.5%, and all three new energy vehicles from China fell sharply. Xiaopeng , which had the smallest decline, also fell 11.9%, NIO fell 15.7%, and Ideal plummeted 17.4%.
Other technology stocks most rose. Microsoft rose 2.1%. Google and Apple rose 1.4%.
In addition, pharmaceuticals, banks and aviation have achieved good growth.
However, Chinese stocks listed in the list of fell collectively, and the decline was not small, with Pinduoduo falling 24.6%. The declines of B station and New Oriental also exceeded 16%, while the declines of Alibaba , JD , and Baidu are all close to 13%.
However, because several economic data released by China yesterday rebounded significantly, Chinese stocks may be seeing their last fall.
04
The Fed's interest rate hike has a greater influence in Europe than the European economic data.
Yesterday, euro zone announced a series of pmi values, all of which were not satisfactory. The entire euro area's pmi is less than 50, the pm in Germany and the UK's pmi is only just 50, and the pm in France is only just 50.
All data indicate that the European economy is in a continuous shrinkage, but the impact of these pessimistic information is not as great as the Fed's upcoming turn. European stock markets rose simultaneously yesterday.
German stock market has risen from its previous low of 11,800 points to 12,900 points, and has risen 110 points in the past two weeks, a gain of 10%.
After the UK announced the abandonment of its previous tax cut plan, the stock market also rose steadily, from the lowest point of 6,700 points to the current 7,000 points, an increase of 10%.
05
However, the price of crude oil fell sharply.
Yesterday during the Asian trading session, WTI crude oil price rose to US$85.4, but then began to fall, and after the start of European trading hours in the afternoon, it fell below US$83.
shows that the Fed's every move also has a great impact on the price trend of commodities such as crude oil and other commodities.
