On October 25, the three major indexes of US stocks rose intraday. Bank of America strategists said that in the past three weeks, 7 of the S&P 11 sectors have seen capital inflows, of which the IT sector leads the rise; Wall Street bankers once again warned of the future world economic situation.
According to Xinhua News Agency and CCTV News, on October 25, Germany's October business prosperity index fell to its lowest level since 2020; Sunak took office as British Prime Minister ; Russian Federal Savings Bank officials said the company's system was subject to multiple cyber attacks.
The three major U.S. stock indexes rose intraday
On October 25, the three major U.S. stock indexes rose intraday. Wind data shows that as of 22:32 Beijing time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.62%, the Nasdaq rose 1.47%, and the S&P 500 rose 1%.
Image source: Wind
Popular Chinese stocks listed in the United States rebounded, and Wuxin Technology rose sharply at the beginning of the session. Wind data shows that as of 22:30 Beijing time, Wuxin Technology rose 6.50%.
Image source: Wind
In terms of economic data, the month-on-month decline in housing prices in the United States in August exceeded expectations. The U.S. FHFA home price index fell 0.7% month-on-month in August, the largest drop since March 2011, with a drop of greater than expected by 0.6%. In terms of the third quarter report of
, Coca-Cola and General Motors performed strongly, and UBS net profit exceeded expectations in the third quarter. General Motors' adjusted earnings per share in the third quarter was $2.25, exceeding expectations, and the company reiterated its full-year performance guidance. Coca-Cola's net profit was US$2.83 billion and earnings per share was US$0.65, and adjusted net revenue increased by 10% to US$11.05 billion, both exceeding market expectations. In addition, UBS's net profit in the third quarter was US$1.73 billion, exceeding expectations; operating profit was US$8.24 billion, in line with market expectations.
analysts believe that in the next few weeks, various factors such as the latest financial reports, inflation data and the Fed policy meeting may trigger market turmoil. The third-quarter earnings reported so far show that the companies' performance is not as bad as they had previously feared, largely because analysts' expectations for their earnings have fallen very low.
Market insiders believe that the most radical austerity policies implemented by the Federal Reserve in decades put the US economy at risk of a major recession. Economists predict that the median probability of the United States falling into a recession within a year is 65%, which is higher than the previous 45%.
"Investors seem to have adapted to the sharp price fluctuations and are almost numb to it. But the large fluctuations in the market make the trading environment more difficult," said Jeff O'Connor, head of U.S. market structure at Liquidnet.
Bank of US: Large amount of funds flow into US stocks tech stocks
Bank of US stocks said that its customers have become net buyers of stocks for the third consecutive week, and funds flowing into individual stocks are at a historical high.
Bank U.S. strategists Jill Carey Hall and Savita Subramanian pointed out on Tuesday that hedge fund is the main buyer, retail investors buy for the fourth consecutive week, but institutional clients sell. "In the past three weeks, funds flowing into a single stock have been at the 99th percentile at its high since 2008, two standard deviations above the average. If the company's customer repurchase is not included, they are still at the 92nd percentile." Bank of America strategists said that the percentage of capital flows in a single stock as a market capitalization in the past three weeks is extremely extreme. But it should be noted that in most cases of extreme capital inflows that occurred after the global financial crisis, it usually occurred in the previous few months when extreme capital outflows occurred - this time it was not the case. The cumulative US dollar inflows so far this year is also the most positive in the history of Bank of America data.
S&P 7 of the 11 sectors have capital inflows, among which the IT sector leads the rise. The industry has seen capital inflows for five consecutive weeks. There are also healthy capital inflows in the healthcare sector and the communications service sector. The energy sector and financial sectors have the most outflows. The rolling average investment flow in the consumer discretionary sector turned negative for the first time since April. Bank of America strategists said, “We believe the industry will still face risks under the influence of margin risk and weak comments so far this earnings quarter.”
Wall Street Investment Bank: The world economy is facing a severe situation
Wall Street Top bankers on Tuesday issued a warning to the future world economic situation against the backdrop of the tensions in geopolitical and the policy of hiking interest rates in response to decades of high inflation.
Goldman Sachs President David Solomon said: “The situation of the market economy will begin to tighten significantly. If the Fed cannot see the real changes in the market, it will still raise interest rates to more than 4.5%-4.75% in the future. "
" They did not see tangible changes in the labor force that are still very tight, and they are obviously just controlling macro-demand through tightening policies. But if the Fed does not consider the real changes in market financial behavior, I predict that its position will be eagle again and continue the process of rate hikes. "Solomon said.
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon also said that further deterioration in the geopolitical situation is more worrying than the possible economic recession in the United States in the future. "Many of the unnecessarily bad events that are about to appear will put the U.S. economy into recession." "He said.
Germany's October business prosperity index
fell to the lowest level since 2020
Local time On October 25, local time, the German Iver Economic Research Institute released the country's October business prosperity index, data showed that Germany's most important business barometer is at its lowest level since 2020.
It is reported that Germany's October business prosperity index fell another 0.1, falling to 84.3, the lowest level since May 2020. The data shows that German companies are worried about the energy crisis and economic recession.
Director of the Iver Economic Research Institute Foster said that companies are still worried about the next few months and the German economy is facing difficulties The difficult winter. Commerzbank Chief economist Kramer also believes that the situation is not optimistic. He expects the German economy to shrink in the winter.
The report also shows that new orders in Germany's manufacturing industry fell in October, and the capacity utilization rate also fell from 85.3% to 84.6%. The business environment of the service industry rebounded slightly after the collapse last month, but the industry's assessment of the current business is still very bad. The business environment of the construction industry has deteriorated again, the business prosperity index has fallen to its lowest level since January 2016, and major industry associations have all significantly lowered annual expectations. The industry had expected sales to grow by 1.5% at the beginning of this year, but now it has adjusted to a 5% decline.
The general downturn is also in line with the German central bank's estimates. Previously, the German central bank believed that the German economy was in a On the brink of recession, this means that economic output will decline significantly, widely and lastingly. Uncertainty of inflation and energy supply is putting pressure on the German economy. Economists from the German Central Bank said that Germany's economic output is expected to shrink by 0.2% in the fourth quarter.
Sunak took office as British Prime Minister
The new party of the British Conservative Party, Shurich Sunak, officially took office as British Prime Minister on the 25th.
The same day at Buckingham Palace in London, Elizabeth Trass submitted his resignation to the British King Charles III and obtained approval to step down as British Prime Minister. Subsequently, Sunak accepted the king's authorization to form a new cabinet and officially took office as British Prime Minister.
Su Nacker then spoke at the Prime Minister's Office at 10 Downing Street, London, saying that the UK is facing a "huge economic crisis". The focus of the new government's work is to stabilize the economy and restore confidence, "this means that it will make a difficult decision soon." In his speech, he also mentioned the domestic and foreign challenges facing the UK such as the COVID-19 epidemic, and promised to unite the country.
On the 20th of this month, Tras announced his resignation from the position of prime minister and the Conservative Party party leader position. The Conservative Party then entered the process of electing a new party leader. Sunak was elected as the new party leader on the 24th. According to regulations, the new leader of the ruling party took over the position of prime minister and his term of office will be until the next parliamentary election. The term of office of this parliament will end in December 2024. The British Labor Party, the Liberal Democratic Party, Scottish National Party, Scottish National Party, and other opposition parties have demanded that the general election be held in advance in recent days.
Russian Federal Savings Bank official said
The company's system was subject to multiple cyber attacks
It is reported that Russian Federal Savings Bank (Sberbank) Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors Kuznetsov said in an interview with the "Russia-24" TV station on the 25th that the Russian Federal Savings Bank resisted a major distributed denial of service attack (hereinafter referred to as DDoS attack ) in early October, and more than 100,000 hackers participated in the cyber attack.
Kuznetsov previously pointed out that the Russian Federal Savings Bank suffered about 450 DDoS attacks in the first three quarters of 2022, exceeding the total number of cyber attacks suffered by the bank and its subsidiaries in the past five years. Kuznetsov said the number of cyberattacks against the company has increased by 14 times since the beginning of 2022, according to data from the Russian Federal Savings Bank.
Ukrainian Infrastructure Ministry:
4 cargo ships carrying agricultural products left the port in southern Ukrainian
According to Ukrainian media reports on October 25 local time, the Ukrainian Infrastructure Ministry announced that the four cargo ships carried 107,200 tons of Ukrainian agricultural products on the same day.
Since the implementation of the Black Sea grain transportation agreement, Ukraine has exported 8.9 million tons of agricultural products.
Editor: Song Zhaoqing Ya Wenhui
