According to a global commercial aircraft market share outlook released by Boeing in September 2021, it shows that: The procurement potential of Chinese commercial aircraft can reach at least about US$1.5 trillion in the next 20 years. In the expected huge sales market of 49,000 aircraft, China's demand will account for at least about 20% of the entire market share. This market is at the same level as Europe, North America and other Asia-Pacific countries, and will even be higher!
This market for COMAC is broad enough, but such a huge market is a bit "unrelated" to this forecaster now!
According to statistics, Boeing's sales business to China has basically been stagnant since the end of 2017. In the past two years, the company has delivered only 40 aircraft to Chinese airlines (the contract signed before), while its old rival Airbus' has delivered 197 aircraft, which is clear at a glance!
Take 2020 as the time node. Boeing's aircraft delivery volume to China has exceeded 20% in the past (Boeing's global aircraft delivery volume) to less than 5% today. The Chinese market is gradually moving away from Boeing .
The more fatal blow to Boeing was that on July 1, China's three major airlines spent a lot of money to Boeing's rival Airbus, with a total price of up to US$37.2 billion, or about RMB 250 billion, with the largest order in aviation history, with a total order of about 292 aircraft orders; what is the concept of
at one time?
According to industry insiders, orders of nearly 300 aircraft are equivalent to the year-on-year aircraft demand in the global civil aviation industry before the epidemic.
As soon as this news came out, Boeing responded quickly and said in extreme disappointment: As an aircraft supplier with more than 50 years of good relations with China's civil aviation industry, it is really heartbreaking that we cannot participate in this business normally due to "geopolitical differences".
Of course, this is just a reason Boeing understands itself. If you can't sell the plane, you will blame everything on the relationship between the two countries. Obviously, it means "reluctant"!
But it actually has more than this one to hit Boeing!
At the recently upcoming Famburg Roh Air Show, Malaysia may announce its domestic plan to replace 24 medium-sized passenger aircraft winning companies;
Before this, Boeing's 787 and Airbus's A330 were both candidates, but according to a source from Malaysia Airlines : Airbus' A330 may have a higher chance of winning in this bid, citing that Airbus's aircraft are cheaper.
According to the current price, the order value of these 24 aircraft will not be less than US$10 billion.
If Boeing does not win this contract in Malaysia, this July will be a "pure" black July for this company. You should know that Boeing's sales for the whole year last year were only US$62.2 billion, and the two major orders that have "defeated" this year are close to 75% of its total sales.
Although Boeing is still the world's number one supplier of commercial aircraft, its market share has been continuously surpassed by Airbus in the past three years. In fact, its "world number one" has long been in name only!
So why did Boeing sink to this point?
First of all, affected by multiple takeoff accidents;
In the two years from March 2017 to March 2019, there were two serious flight accidents in the Boeing 737MAX aircraft, namely Lion Air Flight 610 in 2018 and Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 in 2019. The two accidents caused a total of 346 deaths;
After these two air crashes, all Boeing 737MAX aircraft in the world were grounded.In order to cope with the crisis, Boeing also suspended the delivery of all Boeing 737MAX aircraft since March 2019. Before that, the aircraft had received orders of at least about 4,600 aircraft, with a contract value of more than US$600 billion;
not only can the aircraft continue to be produced, but the orders placed are also being cancelled one after another. So far this year, one-quarter of Boeing's orders of more than 4,000 aircraft have been cancelled. Nowadays, the delivery volume of this aircraft is no longer comparable to that of that year. At its peak, the annual delivery volume of this aircraft was close to 800, but now it is only about 100.
Of course, there are also people who are not afraid of death. For example, Air India ordered 72 of this type of aircraft in 2021, but this is obviously a "drop in the bucket" for Boeing;
Another thing that is very infuriating, that is, Boeing knows that its aircraft has the defects of MCAS system , but it did not correct it, but tried to cover up the facts. After being despised by the whole world, the company also received a huge fine of 2.5 billion US dollars from the US government afterwards.
That's it, Boeing completely "played" itself with a 737MAX!
Second, Boeing's supply capacity may be affected by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict;
Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the United States has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine from beginning to end, but the stalemate of relations with Russia has had the most direct impact on Boeing that the source of titanium, the main material for manufacturing aircraft, may be severely short of the source of titanium;
Boeing has completely stopped importing titanium from Russia since March, and half of the total amount of this metal used by the company was bought from Russia before.
On the other hand, although Airbus is a European company and has also participated in sanctions against Russia, the trade in metal titanium has not been affected because it is not a sanctioned commodity.
Third, price issue
If other factors are aside, Boeing and Airbus also have a considerable gap in the price of the same model of aircraft. Take Airbus A320 neo as an example, its price is about US$110 million, while Boeing 737 MAX The price of 10 is close to US$130 million, and the price difference of 20 million is also a problem that buyers have to carefully consider;
Fourth, possible "geopolitical differences"
No matter what, the deterioration of Sino-US relations will have a certain impact on both sides' choice of products, especially the procurement of such critical equipment;
The United States' policy of curbing China is already a well-known fact. Why choose Boeing under this background?
In addition, Boeing has another huge "halo", that is, the world's third largest weapon supplier. Although this identity has no impact on the supply of commercial aircraft, it is behind the scenes of arms sales to Taiwan, which makes it difficult for China to trust it again.
China's aviation market is huge, but if you want to get a share of this "big cake" in , Boeing may still have a long way to go in the future.
