On June 6, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially issued 5G licenses. The first batch of units to obtain the license include China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom and China Radio and Television Network Co., Ltd.; at the same time, on the afternoon of June 25, Huawei Mate 20 X (5G) dual-mode mobile phone obtained the first 5G terminal telecommunications equipment entry license in China, numbered 001. Two milestone events mark the official launch of large-scale commercial use of 5G.
From the perspective of 5G commercialization, 5G applications are manifested in three major scenarios: eMBB (enhanced mobile broadband), mMTC (large-scale connection), and uRLLC (ultra-reliable low-latency communication). 1. Enhanced mobile broadband scenarios refer to further improving user experience based on the existing mobile broadband service scenarios, representing applications: 4K high-definition video, AR/VR, distance education, etc.; 2. Large-scale connections representing applications of industrial Internet of Things, smart cities, smart homes, etc.; 3. High-reliability and low-latency scenarios have very high requirements for real-time performance. The requirements for delay in the 4G era are about 10ms, while the requirements for delay in the 5G era are less than 4ms or even within 1ms, such as autonomous driving/assisted driving, telemedicine, etc. eMBB is a simple high-broadband and high-speed experience for the 4G era, while mMTC and uRLLC are unique application scenarios in the 5G era. In fact, it builds a transitional and basic application scenario in the era of Internet of Things.
is expected to be commercialized in the advancement of 5G commercialization, large-bandwidth applications represented by high-definition video transmission and VR/AR products will be commercialized first; secondly, smart cities and industrial applications represented by the Internet of Things and large-scale connections will be rapidly popularized; finally, advanced technologies represented by artificial intelligence and autonomous driving will accelerate their development with the assistance of 5G networks. It can be seen that the investment and construction of ultra-high-definition videos at the current point in time will usher in a great era.
As a new generation of innovative technology following digital and high-definition media, the typical characteristics of ultra-high-definition video are big data and high speeds. According to the mainstream industry standards, the transmission rates of 4K and 8K videos are at least 12-40Mbps and 48-160Mbps. The 4G network cannot fully meet the technical indicator requirements such as network traffic, storage space and backhaul delay. The good carrying capacity of 5G networks has become an effective means to solve the needs of this scenario. Currently, scenes combining 4K/8K ultra-high-definition video with 5G technology are constantly emerging, and are widely used in large-scale events/events live broadcasts, video surveillance, commercial remote live live display and other fields, becoming a basic application with broad market prospects.
The so-called high-definition video covers standards including 4K, 8K, 4K screen and 8K screen, which means that the horizontal pixels of the display screen reach 4000 and 8000 respectively. The common ultra-high resolution specifications of 4K screens are 3840x2160 and 4096×2160 pixels. The common resolution of 8K screens is 7680×4320 pixels; it is an emerging resolution standard for digital movies and digital content after the 720P resolution of the CRT display era and the 1080P and 1440P resolution of the LED display era.
Ultra HD video has high requirements for the current TV display size. 4K is usually not less than 49 inches, and 8K screen is usually not less than 70 inches. For screens below 49 inches, in principle, by increasing the number of exposures during panel manufacturing, the panel resolution and resolution can be improved. However, when the small screen is used for 4K, the process accuracy requirements will be improved, which will also have a certain impact on the production yield. In addition, the small screen also has a certain impact on the experience when watching 4K content, and it lacks competitiveness in overall economic benefits.
On March 1, 2019, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the State Administration of Radio, Film and Television, and China Central Radio and Television jointly issued the "Ultra-high-definition Video Industry Development Action Plan (2019-2020)": According to the requirements of the overall overall plan, it is divided into 2020 and 22 respectively; in terms of the technical route, according to the overall technical route of "4K first, taking into account 8K", the development and related applications of the ultra-high-definition video industry will be promoted. In 2020, the sales ratio of 4k TV will reach 40%, the number of 4K ultra-high-definition video users will reach 100 million, and 4K TVs will be fully popularized in 2022. At the same time, the sales ratio of 8K TVs will reach 5%, and the penetration will be gradually accelerated, and the overall number of ultra-high-definition video users will reach 200 million.At the same time, the "Action Plan" puts forward clear goals and requirements on industry scale, core devices, terminal products, transmission networks, content supply, user scale, industry applications, etc., and strengthens breakthroughs in the core industrial chain.
According to AVC's calculations, as of the end of 2018, the ownership of 4K TVs was 110 million units, and the ownership of FHD TVs, HD TVs and CRT TVs was about 500 million units, with a 4K penetration rate of about 18%. According to the requirements of the action plan, there is a lot of room for improvement; in terms of new sales, the sales volume of 4K TVs in 2018 accounted for about 69%. According to the 100% penetration rate in 2022, the annual increase is about 7.8%.
In addition, since 4K is better than small sizes, the penetration rate of 4K in large sizes is currently higher in large size TVs: with 49 inches as the dividing line, the 4K penetration rate of products above 49 inches is significantly higher than that of products below 49 inches, of which 49 inches is 82%, and 50 inches is 96%; the penetration rate of 4K under 43 inches does not exceed 35%. As the action plan advances, non-4K small-size TVs will gradually shrink, and sales of large-size TVs are expected to be helped.
As mentioned above, since my country's 4K penetration rate still has a lot of room for improvement, and large-sized TVs will develop more rapidly in the future, the demand for TV upgrades is obvious, and terminal manufacturers will directly benefit; and the upgrade of screens is beneficial to the panel display industry. At the same time, the core hardware, transmission network, content supply and downstream application industries involved in the key development tasks of the action plan will benefit deeply.
According to the "Action Plan" 2022 ultra-high-definition video industry chain 4 trillion market size, according to the data of CIDI , it is estimated that the market size of video acquisition equipment, production systems, encoding equipment and storage equipment in video production equipment will be 12 billion yuan, 43 billion yuan, 11.9 billion yuan, and 17.8 billion yuan respectively. In 2022, my country's total market size in the video production equipment link will be 84.7 billion yuan; among network transmission equipment (cable TV + Internet transmission equipment will be 70 billion yuan, respectively), my country's total market size will be 239.4 billion yuan; among terminal presentation equipment, the TV field will be 505 billion yuan, and the set-top box field will be 60 billion yuan, and the total market size of computer, computer, VR/AR will reach 1144 1.8 trillion yuan; display panel and chip products in core components are 166 billion yuan and 102.8 billion yuan respectively; the total platform service field is 172.6 billion yuan, mainly divided into integrated services + content + distribution services, divided into 31.1 billion yuan, 73.2 billion yuan and 68.3 billion yuan; of which 1.8 trillion yuan of industry applications account for 45% of the 4 trillion yuan scale, and industry applications are mainly in radio, television, culture, education, entertainment, medical care, and intelligent transportation, and security monitoring, which are about 1.3 trillion yuan and 0.5 trillion yuan respectively, accounting for 72% and 28% of the industry application scale.
, core device
In the above-mentioned industrial chain, the core components are the upstream fields of midstream industries: video production equipment, network transmission equipment equipment, and display terminal equipment, which mainly involve various chips and device products, such as lenses, image sensors, video processing chips, codec chips, display driver ICs, memory chips, etc. In terms of the functions of various chips and devices above
, lenses are used to capture images, and the image sensor converts image signals into electronic signals. The ISP (image signal processor) optimizes the image data captured by the image sensor, such as noise reduction, anti-shake, etc., and finally outputs to the display. The encoding chip converts files in one format into another through compression to achieve the purpose of smoother transmission and processing of video and other data. The application of display drivers on display screens is an important part of helping to better output processed images and video data to the display screen. During the entire process, data must be applied to any link, and the storage of data requires memory. Moreover, for ultra-high-definition video, it will be a massive data storage. It is expected that the amount of data generated from 1080P to 8K will increase by 6 times, and the demand for large-capacity memory will be obvious.
lens, ultra-high-definition video has obvious demand for high-definition lenses. In this regard, the technical barriers are high. High-end lenses are mainly Carl Zeiss, Japan's Nippon Optics, the United States' Sanlais Optics, Taiwan's Dariguang, and Asia Optics. The mainland has great advantages in cost control. At the same time, it is also catching up in technology and can reach the forefront of the international market in some sub-sectors, mainly including Sunny Optics, United Optics, Lianchuang Electronics, etc.
CIS image sensor and ISP barrier are high. In particular, the basic high-end field of CIS image sensors is basically monopolized by Japan's Sony , accounting for 42%, Samsung account for the second 18%, and the Ouvian Technology, acquired by Weil Co., Ltd., accounts for the third largest globally, with sales share of about 12%; among them, Ouvian Technology's CIS market share in the automotive and security fields is the second largest in the world, and consumer electronics ranks third, mobile phone customers include HOV, Xiaomi , etc., and the European and American brands share in automobile customers exceeds 80%, and security customers include domestic Hikvision and Dahua. Sony, Samsung and Howie Technology basically account for about 73% of the entire CIS sensor share. Others include ON Semiconductor (6%), Panasonic (3%), as well as domestic lower-end CIS sensor companies, SBIC, GK, Ruixinwei, etc. In terms of market size, the global scale of CIS in 2018 was about US$14 billion. According to YoleDevelopment, global CIS sensors will reach about US$21 billion in 2022, with a compound growth rate of around 10.50%, among which smartphones/security/automotives, etc. are the main application areas of CIS account for about 70%/5%/5%.
ISP can be an independent chip or integrated into other chips, such as CIS and mobile phone AP chips. Currently, most mobile phones use integrated ISP chips. Mainstream manufacturers such as Qualcomm , MediaTek , Huawei , and Samsung all integrate ISPs in AP chips, and their performance is already relatively powerful; Apple has customized ISPs exclusive to iPhone ; some low-end mobile phones also use ISPs integrated in CIS. The independent ISP chip has very powerful performance, but the cost is high. Fujitsu provides independent ISPs for many well-known models, including Huajing Technology, Aptina, etc. Currently, the domestic ISPs of Howie Technology, HiSilicon, Fuhanwei and Guokewei have their own ISP products.
video encoding, codec and processing chip. It is currently estimated that the global video processing chip market size is about US$3 billion, of which about US$500 million in the security field. It is expected to reach US$5.5 billion in overall by 2022, with a CAGR of about 16% in four years, of which the highest proportion of automobiles (74%) will reach US$4.1 billion; the second proportion of security (20%) will reach US$1.1 billion. At present, the total share of domestic manufacturers in the field of codec chips should be more than 60%, which is about 10% higher than TI, Ambassador, NXP and other shares. However, in the ultra-high definition field of 4K/8K, Anba, Morningstar, Realtek , etc. still have strong voice. Domestic manufacturer China Overseas Technology is the leader, and other manufacturers include Beijing Taihe Zhiheng, Fuhanwei, Guoke Micro, Quanzhi Technology, Ruixin Micro , Beijing Junzheng, etc. Weil Co., Ltd. currently has the strength of high definition, and Guoke Micro 4K's set-top box may also be released this year.
memory chips including DRAM, NANDFlash and NORFlash are the chip market with the largest proportion in integrated circuits, and are basically in an oligopoly position. According to SIA data, in May 2018, memory chips still ranked first in the global semiconductor revenue structure with a share of 32%, with a market size of more than US$100 billion. In terms of competitive landscape, according to DRAMeXchange data, the DRAM market mainly consists of Samsung, Hynix , and Micron . Samsung's market share is about 48%, and Samsung + Hynix + Micron's market share is as high as more than 90%. The main companies in the NANDFlash market include Samsung, Toshiba, SanDisk, Micron, Hynix and Intel, of which Samsung's market share is about 36%, and the market share of the five major companies is about 90%. In the NORFlash field, with international giants such as Micron and Cypress exiting the market, the only major manufacturers in the market are Zhaoyi Innovation in the mainland and Wanghong and Huabang Electronics in Taiwan, showing a three-legged situation. Among listed companies, Zhaoyi Innovation, Beijing Junzheng (acquired ISSI) and Unigroup Guowei ( Unigroup focuses on DRAM) involve related businesses.
- network transmission and smart terminal
network transmission mainly includes satellite transmission, terrestrial broadcast equipment, cable TV transmission, and Internet equipment transmission. Among them, cable TV transmission and Internet equipment transmission are the main transmission methods. Cable TV transmission equipment includes trunk amplifiers, trunk bridges, distributors, branches and transmission media (cables, optical cables), etc. The industry manufacturers are mainly foreign companies including: Japanese KansaiTV, Czech CRa, French HDForum, British BBC, American Technicolor and American NHK. The domestic companies are involved in Broadcom and Jiangsu Xibei, and the technical level is weaker than that of foreign manufacturers. Cydie data shows that the sales revenue of cable TV transmission equipment in 2017 is about 2 billion yuan, and the sales revenue is expected to reach 70 billion yuan in 2022; Internet transmission equipment includes routers, switches, passive optical network equipment (PON), optical transmission network switching equipment (OTN), mobile communication base stations, etc. In this field, companies including Huawei, ZTE , Cisco , Juniper Networks and other companies. Domestic Huawei, ZTE and other companies have internationally leading supply capabilities. Cydie data shows that the sales revenue of Internet transmission equipment in 2017 is about 3.9 billion yuan, and the sales revenue is expected to reach 169.4 billion yuan in 2022. In terms of smart terminal transmission, it mainly includes TVs, set-top boxes, computers, tablets, smartphones, and VR/AR devices that are about to explode. According to CADI data, TV sales, the total global brand LCD TV shipments in 2017 was 211 million units, and the market share of ultra-high-definition (4K or higher) products was 37.1%; Samsung and LG, which are from all over the world, ranked among the world's top Chinese brands and relatively high-end TV terminal shipments, with sales of 4K TVs from Chinese brands of 136 billion yuan, and Hisense, TCL, Skyworth, Haier, Konka, Changhong, Xiaomi and others are the main TV companies. It is expected that the revenue of 4K TV sales of Chinese brands will reach 505 billion yuan in 2022; the sales revenue of the set-top box part was 29.7 billion yuan in 2017, and is expected to increase to 60 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of 102%. Chinese brands mainly include mobile smart terminals such as China Radio and Television, Pepsi, Huawei, Xiaomi, TCL, etc. In 2017, my country's 4K mobile smart terminal sales revenue was 3.3 billion yuan, and it is expected that sales revenue will reach 21.2 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of 542%. This part is mainly foreign giants including Apple, HP , Dell, Google , Sony, Facebook , and China includes Huawei, Xiaomi, oppo, vivoLenovo , Xiaolong Technology , Lexiang Technology, etc.
Let’s talk about the VR/AR industry here. The first year of VR/AR development was 2016. At that time, major giants were crazy about the virtual reality market to cope with the bottleneck of smartphones' gradual saturation. Virtual reality helmets, all-in-one machines, etc. were regarded as the entrances to the next generation of smart terminals. However, due to technical bottlenecks, virtual reality has a long delay, blurred picture and long shadows, and long wear of users will cause dizziness and other problems. Moreover, due to various bandwidth restrictions, killer applications of virtual reality have always been missing. This led to a rapid silence after the storm of virtual reality investment in 2016.
After more than three years of development, the industry has moved closer to giants through competition, and all aspects of technology and application development have made good progress. In particular, with the imminent commercial use of 5G, the bandwidth and delay advantages brought by 5G+cloud computing+edge computing have perfectly solved the user pain points of VR/AR. Specifically, by deploying the edge computing node on the access side, VR/AR scenarios can be transmitted to terminal users on demand, saving local storage space and significantly reducing latency; at the same time, edge computing nodes close to users can determine the user's location and realize location-based AR content matching. In the future, new business models such as nearby content provision and advertising are expected to explore. At the same time, ultra-high-definition video and VR/AR have a natural connection. Ultra-high-definition video is an important part of VR/AR. The two have mutually promoted synergistic effects. The common development of the two will open up the growth space of related industrial chains. In the production and distribution of
- Ultra HD content, various TV channels led by CCTV will become the main content providers, and special CCTV will become the benchmark for ultra HD video content.CCTV's 4K layout is divided into three stages: in April 2018, the 4K high-definition development kicked off. On October 1, the CCTV 4K ultra-high-definition test channel was officially launched and landed on cable TV networks in 16 provinces and cities; from January 2019 to June 2020, CCTV will gradually complete the construction of 3-5 channels of 4K ultra-high-definition production and broadcasting systems, with a 30-hour 4K program production capacity per day; from July 2020 to the end of 2021, with a 4K ultra-high-definition channel production and broadcasting system, with a 60-hour 4K program production capacity per day, and carry out 8K ultra-high-definition technology experiments in 2021.
has listed the relevant construction scale in very detailed in CCTV's 4K program production plan. The entire construction is divided into three stages from 2018 to 2021. The total investment in engineering construction is 8.55 billion yuan. After the construction of each project is completed, the annual operation, maintenance and program transmission investment is 1.094 billion yuan, and the annual investment in 4K program production is about 15 billion yuan (excluding personnel and other funds).
Others such as Southern New Media, Guiguang Network, Hubei Radio and Television, Oriental Pearl, Huashu Media have announced the layout of 4K content production. It is expected that under the leadership of CCTV's benchmark, local media will accelerate their catching up and become the main supplier of ultra-high-definition 4K and 8K content. In addition, iQiyi , Tencent Video, Mango TV and other websites have launched 4K ultra-high-definition video content services, which are expected to become another area where ultra-high-definition video will flourish in addition to TV media.
, industry application downstream industry applications, the field of ultra-high-definition video application is very wide, and it is expected to gradually extend from the field of radio and television. Culture, education and entertainment, intelligent security, intelligent transportation, video conferencing, medical health, etc. will have a profound impact on various industries, and there is huge room for them.
5, core target
ultra-high-definition video industry chain will involve all aspects of semiconductor components, terminal equipment, content production and downstream applications. According to the upstream and downstream, the corresponding key A-share targets include:
core components: Weier Co., Ltd., Fuhanwei, Guokewei, Quanzhi Technology, Beijing Junzheng, Zhaoyi Innovation, Lianchuang Electronics, United Optoelectronics, etc.
transmission, terminal equipment: ZTE , Guangxun Technology, Tianfu Communication , Zhongji Xuchuang, Changfei Optical Fiber, TCL, Skyworth Digital, Hisense Electrical, etc.
content services: Guiguang Network, Radio and Television Network, Zhongshi Media , Jishi Media , Tianwei Video News, Digital Technology, etc.
downstream applications: Hikvision , Dahua Shares, Yilian Network, Shiyuan Shares, etc.
