The real estate industry has a strong money-making effect, which may be everyone's consensus. In the past 20 years, the real estate industry has staged too many wealth-making myths. Not only are real estate tycoons after real estate become the richest man, but many investors and ordinary home buyers have made a fortune by buying houses. According to statistics, in the past 20 years, the national average housing price has risen by 400%, from 2,000 yuan/square meter in 2000 to 10,139 yuan/square meter at the end of 2021. Of course, this is just the average housing price. Specifically for each city, the increase in housing prices will be much higher. For example, the housing prices near the Third Ring Road in Beijing were only about 3,500 yuan per square meter in 2000, but now the housing prices near the Third Ring Road in Beijing start at 100,000 yuan per square meter. It is obvious that Beijing's housing prices have risen 34 times in the past 20 years. In the past, a house with a total price of 300,000 yuan is now worth more than 10 million yuan.
Why has housing prices continued to rise and rise so high in the past 20 years? Many people think it is because of investors' speculation. In fact, this is just one of the reasons, not the fundamental reason. The fundamental reason is that my country's past housing resources were short of housing resources and housing supply was in short supply. Before the full commercialization of residential properties in 1998, my country's real estate industry was developing slowly, residential resources were scarce, and urban residential areas were large. With the full commercialization of housing in 1998, people's demand for housing was released. In a short period of time, housing supply was in short supply and housing prices rose rapidly. Although the real estate industry has developed rapidly in the future, due to urbanization construction, nearly 20 million rural populations enter cities every year, forming a huge demand for housing, which has always led to a shortage of housing resources in my country. This is the fundamental reason why housing prices can continue to rise.
However, in the past few years, the fundamental reason for the rise in housing prices is no longer the shortage of housing resources. With the rapid development of the real estate industry for more than 20 years, my country's housing resources are no longer in short supply and have become oversupply. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the per capita housing area of urban residents in my country has exceeded 40 square meters. Even if 20% of the common area is deducted, there is still 32 square meters of actual usable area. This data is similar to the per capita housing area of 33 square meters in developed countries in Europe and the United States. In addition, according to the data released by the central bank's survey team, 96.86% of urban families in my country currently have houses, with an average of 1.5 units per household, and more than 40% of urban families have 2 or more houses. At present, the urbanization rate of my country's permanent population exceeds 64%, and the urbanization rate of household registration exceeds 44%, which means that only the houses owned by urban registered families are enough for all people in the city to live in, and there will be some remaining. It is obvious that the first housing reform has achieved results and the problem of shortage of housing resources has been solved.
In the environment where housing resources are already surplus, my country's housing prices can still rise on a large scale, which is because of the speculation of real estate speculators. In 2017, Southwest University of Finance and Economics conducted a survey on the vacancy rate. According to the research report of Southwest University of Finance and Economics, in 2017, the number of vacant houses in urban areas reached 65 million, with an overall vacancy rate of 21.8%, of which the vacancy rate of commercial housing was as high as 26%. According to experts, the current total vacancy number of vacant houses has exceeded 100 million. It is obvious that most of these vacant houses are held by investors, because new houses can be sold at a higher price when selling them. Therefore, many investors' real estate is generally vacant and they do not live in or rent them out. More importantly, under this situation, many cities still sell out when they open, and there are endless phenomena of queuing up to buy houses and queuing up to buy houses by lottery.
is very obvious. Currently, housing prices have risen sharply, and real estate speculators have played a big role in it. In fact, real estate speculators do not unilaterally refer to individuals or real estate speculation groups, and many companies also speculate on real estate on a large scale. For example, in 2017, an institution counted the financial reports of A-share listed companies in 2017, and finally found that in the first half of 2017, more than 50% of A-share listed companies held investment properties, with a total value of approximately 1334 billion yuan.Based on the calculation of 1 million yuan for a house, there are about 1.334 million units, which is equivalent to a medium-sized city. More importantly, this is just a house held by A-share listed companies. In my country, more companies are not listed, and many companies are listed in other regions and countries. Therefore, it can be seen that a large number of real estate is indeed held by investors, and these real estates have not flowed into the market, resulting in a shortage of housing resources in the market and a shortage of houses, so that housing prices can continue to rise.
The rise in housing prices requires the support of funds. It is these large enterprises that invest a large amount of funds into the real estate industry that has promoted the rapid development of the real estate industry and also promoted the continuous rise of housing prices. It is also for this reason that the country launched the so-called "check-out order" as early as 2010, requiring 16 central enterprises with real estate as the main business, 78 non-central enterprises with non-central enterprises to withdraw from the real estate industry. But unfortunately, according to statistics, in 2010, only 14 state-owned enterprises that do not focus on real estate had withdrawn from the market. After 2010, few central enterprises have made large-scale clearance of real estate business, and only minority equity transfers or agreement transfer projects have occurred. The fundamental reason why these central enterprises are unwilling to withdraw from the real estate industry is that the real estate industry has a very strong money-making effect.
However, in recent years, the country's policy on the real estate market has become increasingly strict, and high housing prices have also had a serious impact on the development of my country's economy and people's normal lives. Especially the physical industry and high-tech industry have been greatly affected due to insufficient support from funds.
In this case, the Central Media Economic Daily also issued a document to urge: North the main real estate business of central enterprises withdraw from the real estate field, which is obviously conducive to further investing funds and R&D forces in key high-tech fields related to the development of the country, focusing on solving major problems that restrict national development and security, filling in shortcomings, forging strengths, and better solving those "bottleneck" problems. At the same time, in order to support the development of the real economy and promote a steady decline in comprehensive financing costs, the central bank also decided to lower the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 20.5 percentage points on December 15, 2021, releasing about 1.2 trillion yuan of long-term funds. In addition, the state reiterated the "check out order" of central enterprises with a more severe attitude and issued the "Notice on Matters Related to Strengthening Shareholding and Management of Central Enterprises", which clearly stipulates that should regulate the investment of central enterprises, and require central enterprises to strictly control the direction of their main business investment. In order to evade the supervision requirements of the main business, they shall not carry out commercial real estate and other prohibited businesses stipulated in the negative list of central enterprises' investment projects through equity participation and other means.
It can be seen that whether it is the central media's statement, the central bank's reduction of the reserve requirement ratio of the real economy, or the state's requirement that central enterprises withdraw from the real estate industry, it shows that the country wants to develop the vacant real estate industry and encourage the development of the real economy. If the check-out order has lasted for two years, the effect is very obvious. In the first half of 2020 alone, many non-real estate-based central enterprises, including China Minmetals , China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation , China Construction , China Merchants Group, China Unicom , and many other central enterprises that have completed rectification or adjustments involving real estate-related businesses. In the second half of 2020, 8 central enterprises including China AVIC Group and State Grid issued notices of withdrawing from the real estate field. Among them, State Grid has publicly stated that it adheres to the main responsibilities and business of the power grid with a higher political stance, is determined to withdraw from traditional manufacturing and real estate businesses, and resolutely completes the task of deepening collective enterprise reform on schedule.
In the past two years, not only are central enterprises quickly withdrawing from the real estate industry, but many "national teams" are also selling real estate owners and real estate shares. According to the Daily Economic News, in the first three quarters of 2021, China Life Insurance reduced its holdings in Vanke A and China Merchants Shekou ; Taikang Life Insurance reduced its holdings in Poly Development and Sunshine City ; Harmony Health reduced its holdings in Financial Street ; Junkang Life Insurance reduced its holdings in Shoukai shares .It can be seen that these state-owned enterprises and state-owned enterprises are gradually reducing their holdings of real estate companies. But many of them are now that the central enterprises are withdrawing from real estate on one hand, and the national team is protecting to save the market . Why is this? The reason is that in the second half of 2021, the national real estate market was cold, and most developers did not have enough funds to auction land, resulting in the land market being cold. In this case, the land auctions in many cities are ultimately protected by state-owned enterprises, that is, during the land auction, many lands are auctioned by enterprises with state-owned assets.
In my opinion, it is very important for enterprises with state-owned assets to buy land on a large scale. In the environment where the real estate market is cold, private enterprises have tight capital chains and do not have enough funds to auction land. Therefore, whether it is to maintain the stability of the land market or to maintain the stability of the real estate market, the national team has played a great role in providing guarantees for land auctions. More importantly, land auctions are the main income of many local finances, which is the bottom line of the "national team" to maintain the stability of the local fiscal system. But overall, "housing for living, not for speculation" is still the bottom line of current real estate market regulation. At present, some cities and regions relax their real estate market regulation policies only to maintain the healthy and stable development of the real estate market and the legitimate rights and interests of home buyers, and will not break through the bottom line of "housing for living, not for speculation".
