Since mid-June this year, high temperatures have swept the world and many parts of my country. The high temperature in my country has gradually eased from August 24, and the high temperature is expected to end on the 31st. Looking back on this round of hot weather, why is it so fierce? What impact has it made so far? What are the revelations for us? China Meteorological News launched a special plan for "Perspective Extreme High Temperature" to comprehensively analyze the high temperature process.
Look at the situation: Witness the strongest high temperature since 1961
On August 23, the protracted high temperature encirclement finally began to gradually shrink and the intensity gradually weakened. Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that on August 31, the high-intensity "ultra-long standby" high-temperature weather process in the south will end.
stands in front of the end point and looks back at the high temperature process that started in mid-June. Large-scale heat waves are gradually becoming overwhelming, one by one, one by one, and one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one, one by one. On August 12, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued the first high temperature red warning this year. Since then, the high temperature has entered the "last madness". With the complete "confirmation" of the title of the strongest high temperature since 1961, there is no doubt that we are witnessing history.
Witness history: in the name of the strongest high temperature
On August 17, the National Climate Center's monitoring and evaluation showed that the comprehensive intensity of regional high temperature events since June 13 this year has reached the strongest since the complete meteorological observation record in 1961. From June 13 to August 28, the country and province issued a total of 7,555 high-temperature red warnings, 18.8 times that of last year, an increase of 11.6 times compared with the average value of the same period in history (2017-2021). The provincial-level high-temperature red warnings issued increased by 4.9 times compared with the average value of the same period in history (2017-2021). Chen Yu, chief engineer of the center's climate service room and senior engineer at the research level, said that the process started early, lasted for a long time, had a wide range, was strong and had strong extremes.
National High Temperature Day Distribution Map (June 1-August 15)
How strong is this high temperature? Many people have had too many personal experiences and have seen too many amazing data. But there are still some characteristics that are particularly eye-catching.
First of all, it is the widespread and extreme of high temperatures. Finding a clean summer vacation is becoming increasingly difficult, and high temperature heat waves have affected most areas of China. As of August 28, 23 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) across the country experienced high temperatures above 40℃, and the daily maximum temperature at 366 national meteorological stations remained unchanged or exceeded the historical extreme. Turpan, Xinjiang, which has long monopolized my country's extreme high temperature rankings, also encountered challenges - for the first time, the high temperature of 45℃ was measured in areas outside of Turpan .
Secondly, it has gradually become a luxury to find some coolness in "morning and night". High temperatures have become a "model worker" who keeps going day and night, showing the characteristics of "white + black" composite high temperature. In Shapingba, Chongqing, the lowest temperature measured throughout the day on the morning of August 19 was 34.9℃, and only 3 minutes in 24 hours a day did not fall into the high temperature category.
Finally, when the high temperature lasts for a long time, the long-term impact gradually surfaces and the drought begins to emerge. Dong Xinning, senior engineer at Chongqing Climate Center, said that Chongqing, which is famous for its humidity and heat, has been defeated, and has mainly been dry and heat in the past month. At 18:00 on August 18, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued the first meteorological drought warning this year, and "anti-drought during flood season" became a new keyword for rivers this year's midsummer. In the Yangtze River basin, the water levels in many places hit the lowest record, and the water levels of many reservoirs fell to the "stagnant water level", Dongting Lake and Poyang Lake "entered" early; in the downstream Shanghai, Yangtze River Estuary showed rare summer salt tide . The more chain reactions brought by high temperature and drought - surge in electricity demand, declining hydropower production capacity, and hindering agricultural production are affecting our lives more and more deeply.
August 25, 2022Jiangxi Provincial National Station and Regional Station 15:00 pmHot temperature
Of course, it is far more than my country that has been subjected to the "baking" of high temperatures, but the entire northern hemisphere - different countries, cities, and different climate types - are all "struggling" under high temperatures.
, which claims to have the "coolest summer" on the planet, measured high temperatures above 40℃ for the first time on July 19. Europe has suffered the worst century-old drought in 500 years, with high temperature and heat waves triggering raging wildfires. Arctic sea ice continues to decrease, and the melting of Greenland ice sheet is almost "irreversible". North America Northern coniferous forest zone has a large number of fires and insect dams.Even the cold Arctic Circle cannot escape the influence of high temperatures, and the temperature once soared to 32.5℃.
Where does the high temperature come from: The high-pressure "stove" heat more than just
This high-temperature heat wave that is destined to be recorded in history. What is the reason? Zhou Bing, chief expert of climate services of the National Climate Center, believes that there are three levels of causes of extreme high temperatures, which together create a "stove" that keeps heating, baking the entire northern hemisphere: the abnormal atmospheric circulation creates the basic conditions for high temperatures, allowing the high pressure in the entire northern hemisphere to be integrated into one, becoming the direct "firepower" to continuously heat the surface; the "La Nina" incident fuels the fire, pushing the high pressure to become stronger and stronger, constantly delivering "fuel" to the furnace, making the high temperature "to the next level"; the impact of global warming is not easy to detect but is more deadly and long-lasting - it is equivalent to "faning" beside the furnace, and the wind helps the fire, making the fire burn more and more vigorous.
Atmospheric circulation abnormality means that the circulation situation of the atmosphere in different seasons and regional space deviation from the average state of the annual climate exceeds the threshold. This summer, there were obvious abnormalities in the atmospheric circulation system in the northern hemisphere, showing a consistent warm high-pressure circulation system control state. This warm high pressure is the direct source of high temperature. Under the influence of the warm high pressure system, hot air stays near the ground and cannot be blown away or dispersed, resulting in continuous local heating. In other words, in the northern hemisphere this summer, the subtropical high pressure of the Western Pacific Ocean, the subtropical high pressure of the Atlantic Ocean and the high pressure of the Iranian have all been phased up, forming a large-scale overall global warm high pressure belt. The high temperatures that were fighting each other in the past have now formed a "unified front", leaving almost nowhere for residents in the northern hemisphere to hide.
At the same time, the protracted "La Nina" climate event has contributed to the abnormal atmospheric circulation. The "La Nina" incident means that the seawater in the eastern central and eastern Pacific Ocean is abnormally cold, which leads to a series of chain reactions: first, it leads to the strengthening of the tropical latitude circle circulation, which triggers the gear effect of the secondary latitude circle circulation, and further enhances the subtropical high pressure. Since the beginning of this spring, the "La Nina" incident has not weakened, but has continued to intensify. During this period, the sea temperature of Indian Ocean also showed abnormalities, and the two together promoted the continuous increase in subtropical high pressure.
pursues the reasons deeper and will eventually find the ubiquitous impact of global warming. This lasting "high fever" is affected by countless climate anomalies, and the generation of all abnormal factors is inseparable from global warming. In this high temperature process throughout the northern hemisphere, it plays a role in heating amplification and modulation.
A warning: It is imperative to control global warming
Today, the high temperature that lasted for more than two months has finally reached the end. Chen Tao, chief forecaster of the Central Meteorological Observatory, said that by the end of August, the high temperature weather in most parts of my country will be alleviated.
But the end of high temperatures does not mean that people can relax their guard - in fact, it is more like an early warning, a serious warning for the more frequent and extreme high temperature droughts in the future. The judgment of
is based on scientific analysis and judgment of global warming. In 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposed in the first report of the Sixth Assessment Report that global warming further increases the possibility and severity of extreme high temperatures, precipitation, drought and tropical cyclones, especially heat waves and drought events are likely to occur at close or even simultaneously, resulting in no chance of recovery or respite between the two extreme weather events. The report notes that human influences may have increased the probability of compound extreme weather events since the 1950s.
This year, high temperatures and droughts followed one after another, verifying IPCC's statement to a certain extent. We can clearly see that the impact of global warming is moving from "behind the scenes" to "foreground". The slow, indirect effects that were previously difficult to perceive directly by the general public are gradually transforming into more direct and violent forms—more extreme weather and climate.
"Our climate is our future, our future is in our hands."In the report of the second and third working groups of the sixth assessment report released this year, the IPCC emphasized that whether global warming can turn the tide and "stop" before the climate critical point is the key to these years. To respond to climate change, the in-depth reduction of greenhouse gases in the entire industry has reached an urgent and important juncture.
see the impact on response: "baking" test of high temperatures. An important proposition of social governance is difficult to explain clearly. At which critical value is high temperature will destroy people. It does not surging like heavy rain, tornado, typhoon, , nor does it gradually show harm over the long years like air pollution. Some people say that high temperatures are "slow knife", but their damage is immediate and even life-threatening.
In midsummer, the national high temperature drop zone forecast map, the bright red "wound" lasted for more than two months; from the perspective of storm and clouds, satellite , Poyang Lake and Dongting Lake "shrinked" by nearly 70% in the past month; because of the high temperature, heat stroke makes people frightened, and the black bear and monkeys in the zoo can only lick the ice to cool off the heat.
Comparison of the water area of Poyang Lake in August 2022 with August 2021
Under high temperature, ensuring power supply, agriculture and people's livelihood have become an important proposition of social public governance.
Short-term high temperature evolved into continuous heat waves
Looking at the summer in the northern hemisphere, the high temperature not only rages in China, but also forms a "warm atmosphere" in the Eurasian continent and the American continent. Data shows that the temperature in the Arctic Circle even soared to 32.5℃ in July.
Under such a background, the impact of high temperature is becoming profound and long-lasting.
Hong Kong , Chinese Meteorological Service Association, and former deputy director of Hong Kong , believes that "high temperature will first directly endanger human health, leading to heatstroke and heat stroke; the incidence of diseases such as cardiovascular disease and Hypertension will also increase."
As the number of days of high temperatures continues to "+1", continuous heat waves will pose a direct threat to all aspects of the economic and social system. Such threats can be traced to this high temperature incident.
is water. High temperature and low rain accelerate the loss of soil moisture, and the water levels in many places in the Yangtze River Basin hit record lows, resulting in a "flood-drying back during the flood season". Jialing River Large tidal flats exposed to the water, Dongting Lake riverbed became a grassland, and a large number of fish were trapped and died.
is electricity. Not only electricity use, but also power generation has become a problem. The lack of water in the entire Yangtze River basin has caused a sharp drop in daily power generation of hydropower, and many places have to limit electricity. The meteorological conditions index of power load in Sichuan, Jiangsu and Hubei provinces over 60 days are all higher than the same period in history.
is grain. The use of water in farmland becomes tight, which is not conducive to the blooming, pollination and grouting of rice in the first season, spinning corn, spinning with corn, tillering with late rice, and blooming and bolling of cotton. Autumn grain, tea, fruit and other economic crops are affected to varying degrees.
It can be said that under the background of continuous high temperatures and climate changes, my country's environmental, economic and social production are suffering from varying degrees of impact.
Meteorological Pilot promotes the pilot positioning of the joint prevention and linkage
meteorological department, which is undoubtedly reflected in the first perception of the high temperature signal. The emergence of extreme climates is difficult to change, but early warning and scientific response are themselves a "cool" policy. Throughout July, a total of 68,000 warning messages were issued nationwide. Among them, the number of high temperature red warnings issued this year increased the most, reaching 753% year-on-year.
In this high temperature incident, the meteorological department relies on professional technology to accurately monitor and predict the high temperature situation, and uses artificial influence to fight high temperature and drought conditions; on the other hand, it is also exploring its far-reaching impact through the high temperature itself and exploring refined services in different fields and levels. When the high temperature first appeared, the meteorological department accurately grasped the development momentum of high temperature based on the integrated ground-aerospace monitoring network composed of radar , satellites, automatic meteorological stations, etc., and then scientifically predicted the future development trend of high temperatures in various places through high-resolution numerical forecasting, intelligent grid forecasting and integrated artificial intelligence , big data, etc., to provide a decision-making basis for governments at all levels and relevant departments to deploy various tasks.
Since August 12, the high temperature has entered its strongest period, and the Central Meteorological Observatory has issued a 12-day red warning for high temperatures.In order to ensure the safety of drinking water for people in arid areas, ensure the irrigation water for autumn grain crops and the power generation water for reservoir power stations, starting from August 17, the China Meteorological Administration has successively allocated high-performance aircraft to assist Hubei, Chongqing, Henan, Sichuan and other places to capture the opportunity to increase rainfall and urge the rain to drop.
More breakthroughs lie in the meteorological department’s high temperature impact forecast in different fields and levels.
China Meteorological Administration and Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs jointly issued the first season of high temperature heat damage warning and agricultural drought risk warning; and jointly issued the high forest fire risk red warning with Ministry of Emergency Management and National Forestry and Grassland Administration . Jiangsu Meteorological Department and the traffic police department issued the first provincial high temperature forecast for road surfaces in the country; Hubei Meteorological and Health Department issued the first health meteorological risk warning; Chongqing Meteorological and Health Department issued the first first-level warning for high temperature heat stroke; Fujian Meteorological Department and Public Security Department produced and issued the impact forecast of traffic travel in sections of high temperature weather...
Meteorological services are all over all corners of social governance
From energy supply to alleviating agricultural drought, from ensuring the normal operation of various functions of the city, to preventing secondary disasters such as forest fires and traffic accidents, in the face of high temperature, all fields and industries of society need to take the initiative and meticulous response, which is inseparable from the "meteorological tree".
In Sichuan, the power shortage caused by continuous high temperatures is still continuing. In the hall of Sichuan Electric Power Dispatch Control Center, the duty dispatcher and the chief forecaster of the Provincial Meteorological Service Center work together on site to jointly participate in command and dispatch to analyze the development trends of extreme high temperature weather, and provide a decision-making basis for predicting electricity loads and hydropower generation capacity.
In order to do a good job in energy supply guarantee and strengthen power dispatching and operation management, the Office of the Anhui Provincial Energy Supply Protection Leading Group established a special team for peak summer work for power, and carried out special work in phases. The team has 7 special teams, including the meteorological liaison group and the meteorological service group. In this process, Anhui Province's electric and meteorological services have played a very critical supporting role in scientific allocation of power loads and accurate load prediction.
pour a "sip of water" and harvest "sip of grain" in autumn. Faced with the impact of the continuous high temperature weather on the soon-to-be harvested autumn grain, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently issued an emergency notice to strengthen deployment, and sent 25 provincial and provincial contact working groups and 12 science and technology teams to key provinces and key areas affected by high temperature and drought to guide the implementation of key measures. Under the high temperature warning, Anhui, Sichuan and other places have held agricultural drought resistance and harvest work, and Chongqing, Hubei and other places have successively issued emergency notices, doing everything possible to protect drought and seedlings.
In Hunan, the agricultural and rural departments have comprehensively strengthened the water retention work of water conservancy projects such as reservoirs and lakes based on meteorological forecasts. By the end of July, all types of water conservancy projects in the province will be relatively sufficient. The Chongqing Agricultural and Rural Department has established an integrated working mechanism with the meteorological department to monitor, early warning, technical guidance, emergency response, and water use scheduling. At the same time, it strengthens disaster trend analysis, detects potential and trend problems early, and guides agricultural production and operation entities to scientifically resist drought and disaster prevention.
Preventing forest fires is the most important thing to prevent problems from being "burned". The Anhui Provincial Forestry Bureau strengthens the responsibilities of forest chiefs and forest rangers at all levels to provide hierarchical and grid-based management, and comprehensively strengthens the prevention of forest fires and . The Sichuan Provincial Forest and Grassland Fire Prevention and Suppression Command issued an emergency notice, requiring continuous strengthening of rolling analysis, short-term forecasts and warning quick reports, timely release warning and forecast information, and do a good job in implementing forest and grassland fire prevention and control responsibilities, source control, emergency preparation, etc. More than
places have also strengthened health tips and condolence actions. Leaders from Hunan, Chongqing, Sichuan and other places went deep into the grassroots front-line to visit and comfort workers in the high-temperature front-line. Meteorological departments in many places, together with the Health Commission, issued health reminders in a timely manner. Affected by the high temperature, some schools in Chongqing, Sichuan and other places have adjusted their school opening hours and postponed their school openings.
The good news is that as the cold air moves south, rainfall in the southern region has increased significantly since August 24, and the high temperature and heat waves that have been "entering" in the south have gradually subsided.
Autumn may really come.
Author: Liu Zhao Wu Hui Wang Liang Gu Xingyue Literature Liu Qian Li Yue
Source: China Meteorological Administration
