Gold: In the past two trading days, gold has basically maintained a boring sideways fluctuation, and the overall trend is not high, but it is calm before the volcano erupts. Tonight's CPI data may be an important opportunity to push gold to break the deadlock.
The minutes of the Fed September interest rate meeting released in the early morning did not have a major impact on the market. Some important information was also revealed in the minutes, which is of great guiding significance for the monetary policy of the United States in the future. Most decision makers believe that "the cost of doing too little is greater than the cost of doing too much" and should not withdraw from the policy tightening process too early. This attitude will undoubtedly further push up the index . Most assets will still face suffering, and asset prices still have room for downward trend, and it will be difficult for to bottom out in the short term.
In addition, the minutes of the meeting also revealed the Federal Reserve's low tolerance for high inflation, and to further curb inflation, worrying that inflation risks may become deeply rooted. In the view of Fed officials, radical policy tightening can tolerate rising unemployment.
Technical aspect: The daily gold line closes to a small negative line, which is likely to be an adjustment during the decline. The 1-hour cycle price moves horizontally, and the probability of forming a downward relay pattern is high, and the short-term probability will continue to decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the top 1,680 US dollars.
Crude oil: Asian market crude oil fluctuates in a narrow range, which is largely a repair of the excessive deviation rate . The decline is just the beginning, not the end. In terms of fundamentals, oil-producing countries led by , Saudi Arabia, and consumer countries led by the United States continue to engage in fierce competition, and the United States may further pressure oil prices in the future. The production cut agreement of
OPEC+ angered the United States. The United States threatened to reassess the relationship between the two countries. Saudi Arabia refuted the US criticism, saying that the production cut was entirely based on the "lofty goal" to avoid fluctuations in the oil market. It is certain that the current oil prices cannot meet the appetite of oil-producing countries. However, because of the oil-dollar system, the United States and Saudi Arabia are deeply tied, the contradiction between the two is not irreconcilable, and the impact on oil prices is also limited.
The United States is about to usher in a midterm election. High oil prices and inflation have become the core issues of the US campaign. , the Democratic Party led by Biden and has lagged behind its opponents in the polls. Therefore, for the sake of votes, the White House is likely to continue to suppress oil prices, and oil prices will continue to be under pressure.
Technical aspect: The daily crude oil line closes , the middle negative line , the downward force is strengthened, but the 4-hour cycle is oversold, and the 1-hour cycle decline sideways structure is small. There is a high probability that the intraday short-term will rebound after a slight decline, but the general trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the top 89 US dollars.
Bailihao Global Warm Reminder: The above content and views are provided by the third-party cooperative platform think tank, for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. Investors act on this basis at their own risk.
