Yesterday, crude oil production organizations such as OPEC officially announced production cuts. The 33rd Ministerial Meeting of "OPEC+" decided to reduce the average daily oil output by 2 million barrels (2mb/d) from November 2022. Yesterday, crude oil production organizations such as OPEC officially announced production cuts. The 33rd Ministerial Meeting of "OPEC+" decided to reduce the average daily oil output by 2 million barrels (2mb/d) from November 2022. OPEC production cut time was very clever, because US crude oil inventories are about to bottom out! The United States plans to restock the inventory at a price of crude oil price of 80 USD per barrel! Since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the price of Brent crude oil futures has risen to a maximum of $139 per barrel. In order to crack down on high oil prices, the Biden administration of the United States has sold a large amount of crude oil reserves to reduce crude oil prices. This time, OPEC production cuts have significantly hit the United States' plan to replenish inventory at a low level! Therefore, in response to OPEC production cuts, Biden
In addition to selling reserves, Biden also called on American energy companies to reduce the price difference between wholesale and retail gasoline prices, and may also limit the export of refined oil!
Therefore, the US oil transportation stocks did not benefit from this rebound of US stocks, but fell sharply!
Reaction in the Hong Kong stock market, and shipping stocks are also in disgrace!
Holiday A shares open, will shipping stocks still fall? have no idea! Because the navigation industry is a relatively risky industry, especially oil transportation stocks, which have become soaring as oil policies change!
is currently affected by the production cuts, and VLCC has fallen below the freight rate of 50,000 yuan per day. Whether the freight rate will rise again depends on the industry cycle!
A year ago, I tried to write an article about , COSCO Ocean Control and COSCO Ocean Energy from the perspective of cycle reversal: "A brief discussion on the investment logic of COSCO Ocean Control and COSCO Ocean Energy! Maritime control is leaving? Can the sea increase its position? 》, and the trends of sea control and sea energy later confirmed the power of this cycle reversal!
Zhongyuan Ocean Control has fallen from a high level, while Zhongyuan Ocean Energy has risen from around 5 yuan to a maximum of 20.57 yuan, nearly 4 times!
Why is China COSCO Shipping constantly falling? The cycle has reversed. The era of hard-to-find containers is gone. With The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike suppressing demand from various countries, container shipping freight rates are getting lower and lower day by day, while crude oil prices are rising and costs are rising. The era of container shipping is over!
On the contrary, under the catalysis of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict at the beginning of the year, crude oil prices rose, and countries had a strong desire to grab oil. On the contrary, oil transportation had a big market with a cyclical reversal!
A shares three oil transport stocks: COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Shipping , and China Merchants Nanyou. Except for China Merchants Shipping, which doubled due to the lack of focus on business miscellaneous capital, the other two have doubled!
This is the charm of cycle reversal! It can turn an "pheasant" stock that no one cares about into a "phoenix" stock!
So is there a problem? Has the oil transportation cycle been completed?
The answer is definitely no! Because if the economies of various countries are recovering, they still cannot do without crude oil! Countries need crude oil, so they need oil-carrying ships! Therefore, oil transportation is in the early spring stage, and it is not as far as the sea control level is like autumn! More importantly, there is a shortage of ships in the world!
The decline in oil transportation stocks at this stage is affected by the recession expectations caused by interest rate hikes in various countries, OPEC production cuts and Fed reserves, and plans to limit refined oil exports!
Is the world economic recession? Compared with China and the United States, the recession is not obvious. The European economic recession is due to the impact of the impact of the sharp rise in the price of natural gas, after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. After all, it is the economic recession caused by the excessive manufacturing costs caused by insufficient energy and excessive energy costs!
OPEC production cuts are many factors, including the desire to maintain high oil prices, and there are also concerns about the West setting the upper limit of Russian oil prices. After all, upper limits can be set for Russia, or price limits can be set for OPEC and other countries!
This war between crude oil countries against crude oil countries (the United States has become one of the world's oil exporters) has begun, although it is covered up by the illusion of the US hike rate hike to reduce inflation!
American oil merchants are also willing to maintain high oil prices! The Biden administration focuses on the midterm elections, so it must lower the price of refined oil in the United States and please voters, which is why there is a plan to limit the export of refined oil!
Therefore, the decline of US oil transportation stocks and the decline of Hong Kong oil transportation stocks should be viewed differently!
The decline of Hong Kong oil transportation stocks is more affected by the restrictions on production cuts and recession expectations! There is also the impact of the short-term decline in VLCC freight rates!
US stocks are more likely to be affected by the possibility of restricted exports of refined oil!
So, if the market opens on Monday, will oil transportation stocks, which can be the leader in COSCO Sea as the leader, follow the decline?
No one can say, but it is a fact that China has relaxed the fifth batch of refined oil export quotas! Chinese refineries can add enough to produce refined oil and export them immediately! This is contrary to the United States' plan to restrict the export of refined oil! It also shows that China and the United States are in different cycles, China's inflation is not high, while the US's inflation is over!
Therefore, on Monday, we need to see whether the market can restore confidence when the RMB stops falling and rebounds!
Otherwise, oil transportation stocks with COSCO Shipping as the leader will still fall more!
But in the long run, the oil transportation cycle is far from over!
