Picture: Stock price trend since the outbreak of Moderna and Pfizer's epidemic
In the past few years, the new crown pneumonia epidemic has ravaged the world, and pharmaceutical factories have made a lot of money selling vaccines, becoming the biggest winners in the epidemic market. Regarding vaccines, messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccine is a very effective one. Don’t think it can only be used as a fight against the new coronavirus. In fact, it is very likely to be an important vaccine for humans to prevent epidemics in the future. Moderna, Pfizer (Pfizer ), Sanofi (Sanofi ) and other major pharmaceutical companies will publish test data of mRNA vaccine against influenza this year. Once the research and development is successful, pharmaceutical companies can make a lot of money. According to market forecasts, from 2023 to 2025, the newly opened market size is estimated to reach US$20 billion (about HK$156 billion), and will increase to US$23 billion (about HK$180 billion) in 2035. \Ta Kung Pao reporter Li Yaohua
At the end of 2019, during the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia, large pharmaceutical factories concentrated resources to develop mRNA. The American pharmaceutical factory Pfizer rose by more than 50% from US$200 billion at the beginning of 2020 due to the successful mRNA vaccine. Its market value has increased by more than 50% from US$200 billion at the beginning of 2020, and has now reached nearly US$306 billion.
Another American pharmaceutical company, Moderna, has an even more exaggerated market value, and has risen by more than 9 times, from US$6.582 billion in the first quarter of 2020 to US$71 billion now.
Germany's Byrne Tekko Pharmaceutical Factory (BioNTech) cooperated with Pfizer to develop the Fubitai vaccine produced by Fosun Pharmaceutical is the world's best-selling and efficient new crown vaccine . Last year's vaccine revenue was US$36.781 billion, far exceeding the British pharmaceutical factory AstraZeneca and the American pharmaceutical factory Johnson & Johnson . This also led to the only factory in Johnson & Johnson that produced the new crown vaccine, which quietly stopped production at the end of last year, instead creating a more profitable vaccine to prevent another virus.
5 million severe influenza
mRNA vaccines are not just a single person, they can only deal with the new coronary pneumonia. In fact, they can cover infectious disease prevention, cancer treatment, and genetic disease treatment. Therefore, pharmaceutical companies are stepping up their research on other mRNA application vaccines. This year, Moderna, Pfizer, Sanofi and others will release mRNA test data on influenza, which is waiting around the world because in addition to the new coronavirus, influenza is also a familiar enemy of humans, causing 3 million to 5 million serious illness cases every year, and the death toll is as high as 290,000 to 650,000. If the research and development is successful, these pharmaceutical companies can open up another big market and their stock prices will inevitably soar again.
It is reported that Pfizer and Moderna are committed to researching the use of mRNA technology to develop influenza prevention vaccines. Pirada Suphaphphat, vice president of Pfizer's vaccine research department, said that the effectiveness of preventing the new crown vaccine proves that the new flu vaccine under development will be more effective than the existing vaccine.
mRNA vaccines are widely used. For example, Pfizer cooperated with biopharmaceutical company Beam to use mRNA for base editing. If successful, it can change the human DNA and even treat genetic lesions.
Beam CEO John Evans said Pfizer has produced an mRNA-based anti-pneumonia vaccine, so there is an opportunity to apply this technology to other aspects, such as base editing.
mRNA technology is widely used for many purposes. At present, the Spikevax new crown vaccine is Moderna's only commercial product, and its sales are expected to reach US$20 billion this year. Modena is not satisfied with the status quo and actively plans for the future. Since April last year, it has increased the development of mRNA-based vaccines from 26 to 34, of which 19 have reached the clinical trial stage.
Modna announced in December last year that the first phase of the test data about the quadrivalent influenza vaccine is positive. The vaccine is named mRNA-1010. The subject is an adult. The second phase of the test has been applied for and is preparing to carry out the third phase of the research work. It can be foreseen that if the above dozens of vaccines are successfully developed, Moderna's market value may be very amazing.
Nearly 80% of pharmaceutical factories are developing the least one mRNA prevention vaccine. Analysis estimates that in the short term, most of the vaccine returns of pharmaceutical companies will come from the new crown vaccine, but in the medium and long term, other preventive vaccines, such as respiratory fusion virus and influenza, will become increasingly popular, and the market size will gradually increase, but competition in the industry will be fierce.
mRNA product is currently based on the new crown vaccine only, and is worth more than $50 billion last year.Looking ahead, the demand for COVID-19 vaccines will decline as the epidemic subsides, but demand for products with more uses of enhancers and mRNA will not decrease. The market estimates that between 2023 and 2025, its value will remain at US$20 billion and may increase to US$23 billion in 2035.
