Summary
1 In just three trading days after the session, the black system showed a small resonance adjustment, the upward strength was obviously insufficient, the center of gravity moved slightly down, the market was diverged, and the demand became the biggest uncertainty. Sometimes we need to be cautious enough in some subtle changes in the market. Perhaps the sharp rise in the early stage lays a big hidden danger and overdraws too many expectations. Once the expectations are falsified, there is a possibility of a sharp decline in the market. However, the unblocking of Tangshan will increase part of the supply, and the national start of work and resume work will improve, and the increase in demand may usher in a new round of trends.
Factors affecting steel prices
Tangshan 19 places orderly lifting the sealing management, focusing on the demand
Tangshan 319 counties and development zones orderly lifting the sealing management, including Road North District , Guye District , Kaiping District, Lulu South District , High-tech Zone, Fengrun District , Fengnan District , Yutian County , Luanzhou City , Zunhua City , Luannan County , Caofeidian District , Qianxi County , Tangshan International Tourism Island, Lutai Economic Development Zone, Harbor Economic Development Zone, Hangu Management Zone , Qian'an City , Leting County .
analyst Wen Haichao's view: The unsealed production and life in Tangshan 19 places has gradually returned to normal, upstream supply will gradually increase, and transportation will also be partially alleviated. It is understood that long-term steel mills have started production one after another, but independent rolling mills are still under lockdown, with low operating rate, and overall supply is developing better; on the demand side, transportation in other places is still not smooth, demand has not improved, and transactions are more difficult. The overall supply and demand are slightly stronger than the early stages of the epidemic. As the epidemic situation gradually improves, the market mentality improves, and prices also begin to rise. In the short term, the market expects preferences.
For the first time, my country's total marine economy exceeded 9 trillion yuan, and the maritime and shipbuilding industries grew rapidly.
htmlOn April 6, Ministry of Natural Resources released the "2021 China Marine Economic Statistical Bulletin " (hereinafter referred to as the "Bulletin"). The Communiqué pointed out that in 2021, my country's total marine economic output exceeded 9 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 9038.5 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3% over the previous year, and its contribution to national economic growth was 8.0%, accounting for 15.0% of the GDP of coastal areas.
analyst Wen Haichao's view: The impact of the epidemic in the near future is still expanding, both demand suppression and logistics restrictions have obvious impacts, and prices are still fluctuating recently. In addition, from the collection of data and release, the table needs to rebound slightly. Judging from the above news, the short-term market mentality is still bullish, but there is obvious pressure to rise. We still need to be vigilant about the impact of changes in the epidemic in the future. It is expected that the price of hot-rolled coils will continue to fluctuate in the range in the future.
Development and Reform Commission issued the "14th Five-Year Plan" implementation plan for the construction of Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, and the black industry will be upgraded again
National Development and Reform Commission issued the "14th Five-Year Plan" implementation plan for the construction of Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, with the goal of 2025, Beibu Gulf urban agglomeration, and the urbanization rate of the permanent population will be increased by more than 5 percentage points. The construction of important commodity storage and transportation bases in southern my country is accelerating. Looking ahead to 2035, we will fully build a first-class blue bay urban agglomeration with regional and international influence.
Analyst Wen Haichao’s view: Steel products, iron ore, coking coal, coke, etc. are important backbone industries for commodities. Recently, steel mill production has continued to increase, and iron ore demand is relatively strong. Affected by the epidemic, logistics and shipping are restricted, steel mill iron ore inventory has declined, and there is a demand for restocking in the future. Strong fundamentals. However, the government intends to regulate high prices such as iron ore, coking coal, and coke. Iron ore, coking coal and coke are affected by the fundamentals of the industry and policy regulation game, and there is great uncertainty.
Market price
Steel price fell today
China Steel Network APP Data shows:
Rebar 24 markets, no rise, 20 down 10-50, the average price of 20mm HRB400E is 5,096 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day;
hot coil 24 markets, no increase, 16 fell 10-30, and the average price of 4.75 hot-rolled coil is 5,380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from the previous trading day;
medium-thick board 423 markets, no increase, 5 fell 10-20, and the average price of 14-20mm ordinary medium-roll board is 5,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
According to statistics, today Harbin 25# I-shaped steel was reduced by 100 yuan/ton.
According to data from China Steel Network, a total of 20 steel mills have adjusted their prices today, of which: 7 companies have lowered
, accounting for 35%, with a price adjustment of 10-30 yuan/ton, with the largest decline being Yangtze Steel Building Materials;
has not been raised;
has remained the same as 13 companies, accounting for 65%.
According to Zhonggang.com APP data,
Zhonggang.com APP price trend chart is as follows:
period steel fell overall today
Today's thread main futures fell 71, closing at 5019, a drop of 1.39%; the main hot coil fell 44, closing at 5195, a drop of 0.84%; the main coke fell 9, closing at 4059, a drop of 0.22%; the main coke coal fell 13.5, closing at 3214, a drop of 0.42%; the main iron ore rose 6, closing at 918.5, and the increase of was 30.66%.
Scrap steel price update
Price adjustment: Qinhuangdao Anfeng Scrap Steel Notice: All material types are now reduced by 20 yuan, and the specific price is subject to the manufacturer's price list.
Price adjustment: Handan Huaxin scrap steel rose by 30: Rebar head 3770-3840 Bean discus 3770-3840 Mold steel pure rail U-shaped steel 3830 steel sheet 3810-3840 angle groove sheet 3670-3770 Horseshoe 3720-3770 Train small material 3830 shear material 3770-3790 before tax.
price adjustment: Guangdong Shaoguan Yueshao scrap steel fell 20 Execution price: steel bar cut into the factory 3680-3730 heavy scrap 3560 new corner 3590 pig iron 3560 divided 3480-3530 industrial crushed material 3480-3530 thick shear material 3430 shear material 3380 shear material 3230 shear material 3230 shear material 3 truncated material 3150-3230 granules 2890-3130 tax is not included.
Price adjustment: Guangxi Guigang Steel has increased by 20-30: cast iron, cast steel and mechanical parts 3490, heavy scrap steel 3490, steel bar block 3560; first-class shearing material 3470, second-class shearing material 3440, vehicle messed steel bar 3390, light and thin materials 2840, pure steel bar head 3550, and steel bar particles 3750 do not include tax.
supply and demand analysis
supply: Tangshan 19 cities weaker unsealed steel mill output rebounded from a low level, in line with seasonal laws. Under the downward pressure on the economy, the national production restrictions may be relaxed. It is expected that the increase in output will continue, but will not rise to the high of the same period last year, and there is still some pressure to limit production.
Inventory: The epidemic is uncertain, affecting logistics, and the speed of destocking is limited.
Demand: At the macro level, the start-up and resumption of work of real estate infrastructure data has improved, and expectations for building materials demand have begun to increase. Despite the epidemic, overall demand rebounded in April. The fundamentals of the industry are relatively stable and the overall strength is relatively strong. The peak season is coming and demand is recovering. Price fluctuations are greatly affected by iron ore and other external factors, which is also one of the main points of demand impact.
Steel price forecast:
Policy favorable, playing a positive role in improving remote consumption expectations. Scrap steel prices continue to rise, resulting in a slight loss in short-process steel mills, which restricted the increase of long-process steel mills. The current thread output is at a historical low. Although Tangshan resumes production one after another, production capacity cannot be released immediately, spot market prices have fallen back, and supply and market circulation have improved slightly, but the market's concerns about demand have increased.The iron and water production rebounded slightly to 2.29 million tons. The epidemic has a great impact on logistics and downstream construction. Apparent consumption has weakened compared with the previous period and is at a low level in the same period of previous years. The total steel inventory has accumulated. There is room for improvement under the support of policy, but the reality and expectations are quite different, and demand may delay performance. The overall performance next week is average.
Overall, the weekend rose slightly.
