Today's market is full of flowers and willows, rises and falls and are stable, and the market price is very lively! futures 12 rose on the night and night trading, but the spot market seemed to be not very willing to buy it, and there was still a small part of fell . How will the market go in the future? Let’s listen to the detailed analysis of analysts...
Steel futures continued to rebound slightly last night, but the weakness in the day did not change. The inventory data turned down but the amplitude was limited, which failed to drive market sentiment to rebound. The main forces of threads and hot coils closed slightly lower. The price of rebar in Hefei, Wuhan, Taiyuan, Guiyang, Kunming, Xi'an and other markets fell by 10-20 yuan/ton, while the price of Hangzhou, Nanjing, Jinan and other markets rose by 10-20 yuan/ton. Tangshan Qian'anpu square billet resource ex-factory tax increased by 20 to 3650.
macroscopic: 9 US core PPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 5.6% year-on-year. Feder has significantly hike rate probability increased; WHO warned that a new round of epidemic situation in Europe has begun.
Industry: Lu During the silent period of Xiaoyi and , Fenyang in Liang City, coal enterprises generally limited production by 40%-50%; from October 13 to October 16, some areas in Yulin Yuyang District conducted practical static management drills.
On October 12, the night trading black futures turned red, but fell again on the morning of October 13, reflecting the lack of market confidence. is mainly expected to raise the Federal Reserve significantly in November and the repeated suppression of demand in the domestic epidemic. In the short term, steel prices may be weak, will fluctuate in a narrow range of operation.
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Factors affecting steel prices:
Capital expectation difference
With the September U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) released by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 12th, up , the first time in three months, up from , PPI grew beyond expectations. In order to resist the upcoming inflation problem, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has increased. At that time, the financial pressure will increase, and the risk of investment has increased again, and the enthusiasm of the capital market has weakened. It is worth noting that the US CPI data was released tonight (13th). If the CPI data is higher than 8.3% in August, the stock market will fall . If inflation slows down below 7.9%, it may trigger a rebound in the stock market. Futures will also be affected by this to stop from falling rebounding.
However, the domestic central bank has had more monetary response policies for this, and the panic in the entire market has dropped . In addition, after the National Day, the weather is suitable, and the progress of delayed construction projects has accelerated. Especially in the northern regions, we must speed up the progress before the cold winter comes, and the demand for steel is gradually released.
According to market research data by analysts on the 13th, the number of orders in traders has increased, but the impact of the epidemic lockdown, multiple intersections of the expressway have been blocked, and shipments have been affected to a certain extent. However, judging from the order data, demand has a trend of increasing, which is beneficial to steel prices overall.
2, demand increases support
See the data of Komatsu.com: In September 2022, the number of hours of start-up of Komatsu excavator in China was 101 hours, an increase of 3.2% month-on-month, and a slight decrease of 40.7% year-on-year. In September, the number of hours of Komatsu excavator start-up increased month-on-month and decreased year-on-year by , indicating that it has entered the "peak season" for start-up in the second half of the year, and the start-up rate in September increased compared with August.
Excavator is a barometer for construction site projects. The excavator start time has increased, which indicates that the progress of downstream construction projects has accelerated, the demand for steel will gradually increase, and the overall transaction will develop positively, which will more or less boost market expectations and inject fresh blood into the sluggish steel prices.
3, automobile sales growth
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September 2022, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 2.409 million and 2.332 million respectively, an increase of 11.7% and 9.7% month-on-month, and a year-on-year increase of 35.8% and 32.7% respectively. From January to September, the production and sales of passenger cars reached 17.206 million and 16.986 million respectively, an increase of 17.2% and 14.2% year-on-year respectively.
Judging from the automobile sales data, the industry continues to maintain good development and is expected to continue in October. The production and sales of new energy vehicles hit a record high. As the weather turns cooler, the domestic enthusiasm for car purchases in is gradually released, the auto market is gradually heating up, and manufacturers' demand for steel will expand, which is good for steel price trends.
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4, inventory decline
According to market statistics, from October 7 to 13, 2022, the five major inventory volumes decreased , among which the inventory volume of threads and wires decreased by 4.4084 million tons, and the inventory volume of plates decreased 77,300 tons, and the cumulative inventory of the five mainstream varieties decreased 3182 million tons month-on-month. Recent real estate policies have been released, further boosting market confidence and expanding steel demand. The People's Bank of China and other four ministries have introduced combination policies to support the development of the downstream economy. The demand for steel in the fourth quarter of is expected to be further released, which is beneficial to steel prices.
Today's spot steel prices fell slightly, and some of them rose
- building materials. Among the 24 markets of 24 fell 10-40, 2 rose 10-20, and the average price of rebar 20mmHRB400E was 4103 yuan/ton, down from the price of on the previous trading day;
- hot coil 24 markets, 3 fell 10-20, 8 markets rose 10-20, 4.75 average price of hot-rolled coils was 3997 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from on the previous trading day;
- medium-thick plates in 23 markets, 6 fell 10-20, 14-20mm average mid-roll plates were 4198 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from on the previous trading day.
steel today opens high and closes low
Today's thread main futures falls 23, closing at 3719, falls 0.61%; hot coil main falls 33, closing at 3722, falls 0.88%; The main coke force fell 19.5, closing at 2751, and fell 0.7%; the main coke coal force fell 25, closing at 2117.5, and fell 1.17%; the main iron ore fell 17.5, closing at 696, and fell 2.45%.
Steel price forecast
Although night market futures have pulled up rose , the spot market is operated cautiously and the market is showing differences. However, various economic indicators in various industries are not ideal as the fourth quarter are completed. Corresponding support policies have been introduced one after another. In addition, as the conference is approaching, environmental supervision is more stringent, and steel and coal production have been affected to a certain extent, and steel costs have increased.
. Under the influence of the epidemic, many places in Shanxi are in risk control areas. Currently, transportation is restricted. The purchase volume of raw coking coal has dropped by . At the same time, the heating season is approaching, the demand for coking is increasing, and the supply volume of has dropped by . After the National Day, the downstream construction progress of real estate, automobiles, construction sites has accelerated, and demand has been released a little. Merchants have successively had orders, and expectations have increased. It is expected that steel prices may slightly increase in the short term.
Latest Thursday, October 13, 2022 Steel Plant price adjustment
Nangang is reduced by 30 yuan/ton! !
Nangang Building Materials Ex-factory price adjustment:
1, thread reduction by 30 yuan/ton : Φ16-25mmHRB400 rebar execution price 4110 yuan/ton;
Note: 12mm screw plus 120 yuan, 14mm plus 30 yuan, 28mm, 32mm plus 50 yuan, earthquake resistance plus 30 yuan, nuclear power thread plus 50 yuan;
or above adjustments are tax-inclusive and will be implemented from October 13, 2022.
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Magang is reduced by 30 yuan/ton! !
Masteel adjusts the price of building materials in Ma'anshan and Hefei area:
1, high line down 30 yuan/ton : Hefei area Φ8mmHPB300 high line execution price is 4470 yuan/ton, Ma'anshan area Φ8mmHPB300 high line execution price is 4460 yuan/ton;
2, thread down rating 30 yuan/ton : The execution price of Φ20mmHRB400 rebar in Hefei area is 4310 yuan/ton, and the execution price of Φ20mmHRB400 rebar in Ma'anshan area is 4300 yuan/ton;
3, plate screw is reduced by 30 yuan/ton : The execution price of Φ8mmHRB400 rebar in Hefei area is 4530 yuan/ton, and the execution price of Φ8mmHRB400 rebar in Ma'anshan area is 4520 yuan/ton. All adjustments above
are tax-inclusive and will be implemented from October 13, 2022.
Shougang Changzhi lowered 30 yuan/ton! !
Shougang Changzhi Construction Steel ex-factory price adjustment:
1, thread reduction by 30 yuan/ton : Φ18-22mmHRB400E execution of 4000 yuan, Φ12mm plus 200, Φ14mm plus 180, Φ16mm plus 30, Φ25mm plus 30, Φ28-32mm plus 120.
2, wire material is reduced by 30 yuan/ton : Φ8-12mm4040 yuan.
3, disc screw is reduced by 30 yuan/ton : Φ8-10mm4060 yuan.
or above are the ex-factory price of , tax-inclusive , measurement method: thread is the basis; disk screws and wires are overweight.
The above price will be implemented from October 13, 2022.
Yangtze Steel has reduced 20 yuan/ton! !
Factory price adjustment of Yangtze River Steel Building Materials:
1. Thread reduction of 20 yuan/ton : Φ16-25mm seismic thread price is 4100 yuan/ton;
2. Disc screw is reduced by 20 yuan/ton : Φ8mm seismic disk screw price is 4350 yuan/ton;
or above are all tax-inclusive and will be implemented from October 13, 2022.
Laigang Yongfeng lowered 10 yuan/ton! !
Laigang Yongfeng adjusts the factory price of construction steel:
1, the guide price of rebar is reduced by 10 yuan/ton : Φ18, 22mm HRB400 rebar is 3940 yuan/ton, 10mm price is 150 yuan/ton, 12mm price is 150 yuan/ton, 14mm price is 120 yuan/ton, 16, 20, 25mm price is 70 yuan/ton, 28-32mm price is 150 yuan/ton, 36-40mm price is 280 yuan/ton, HRB400E is the same price; HRB500E is 200 yuan/ton higher.
2, the guide price of snail is reduced by 10 yuan/ton : The execution price of HRB400Φ8-10mm plate screw is 4180 yuan/ton, 6mm is increased by 350 yuan/ton; 12mm is increased by 200 yuan/ton; HRB400E is the same price. The prices above
are all tax-inclusive ex-factory prices.
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Shiheng Special Steel has been reduced by 10 yuan/ton! !
Shiheng Special Steel adjusts the ex-factory price of construction steel:
1, the guided price of rebar is reduced by 10 yuan/ton : Φ18/22mm HRB400 rebar is 3940 yuan/ton, 10mm is 150 yuan/ton; 12mm is 150 yuan/ton, 14mm is 120 yuan/ton, 16, 20, 25mm is 70 yuan/ton, 28-32mm is 150 yuan/ton, 36-40mm is 280 yuan/ton, HRB400E is the same specification and price; HRB500 high strength and specification and price are 260 yuan/ton.
2, the guide price of snails is reduced by 10 yuan/ton : Φ8-10mm HRB400 snails are executed at 4180 yuan/ton, 6mm is increased by 350 yuan/ton, 12mm is increased by 200 yuan/ton; HRB400E is the same specification and price.
and above are all tax-inclusive prices.
Shanxi Meijin
Shanxi Meijin adjusts the ex-factory price of construction steel:
1, rebar stabilizes: Φ16-25mmHRB400E execution price is 4220 yuan, small screw adds 200 yuan;
2. Wire stability: HPB300Φ8-10mm execution price is 4210 yuan;
3. Spin screw stabilization: Φ8-10mm execution price is 4210 yuan;
or above are all delivered to Taiyuan area with tax. Measuring method: thread is over pound; snail and wire are over pound.
The above price will be implemented from October 13, 2022.
Today's steel mill brief analysis
Today's steel mill guide price continues to slightly lower , with an amplitude of 10-30 yuan/ton, and the futures spiral fell at a high level. Although the transaction of low-priced resources in the spot market in the early trading was acceptable, the downstream was strong and the shipment performance was still average throughout the day. Some markets saw a lot of declines in and . is expected to be the main weaker steel mill prices tomorrow.
