Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukraine War, both sides have been quite tough in both Russia and Ukraine. In particular, Ukraine takes the issue of sovereignty in the Crimean Peninsula and the Donbas region as its bottom line of negotiations, claiming that only if Russia returns these places to Ukraine, then the negotiations between the two sides may progress. But then again, things that cannot be obtained on the battlefield cannot be imagined at the negotiating table, and this applies to both Russia and Ukraine.
For Russia, they originally planned a lightning raid like the invasion of Czechoslovakia that year. They controlled the other's big cities by just airborne raid. Before the war, the West generally believed that Russia would end the battle within 96 hours, but Ukraine's tenacious will to resist was indeed far beyond Russia's imagination.
Also worth mentioning is that Russia had prepared a victory press release, but for some reason it was accidentally exposed by the Russian media. According to the statement in this manuscript, the purpose of the Russian army is to occupy the entire Ukraine. The statement of Putin is equivalent to denying the existence of the Ukraine nation in disguise. This is obviously unacceptable for Ukraine, which has shaped a sense of national identity for 30 years after the collapse of of the Soviet Union. It is also worth mentioning that even in the two major cities in eastern Ukraine that have been occupied by Russia, the proportion of local Ukrainian ethnic group is still higher than that of Russian ethnic group .
However, as the war progressed, the Russian army was not as smooth as the outside world imagined, but paid a very heavy price of casualties. However, the current war form has entered a complete war of attrition. In the case of such war of attrition, Russia, which needs to crush Ukraine in a comprehensive national strength, will inevitably gain the upper hand. What's more, NATO was unable to agree to the requirement of setting up a no-fly zone over Ukraine from beginning to end, nor could it directly send troops into Ukraine to fight. If the war continues for a long time, it means that it is a disguised declaration of chronic death in Ukraine.
In this case, the Ukrainian President Zelensky's attitude had to soften, and the war seemed to have an end. According to the latest Ukrainian media reports, on March 22 local time, Zelensky said he was ready to have any form of dialogue with Russian President Putin, and the issues of Crimea and Donbas can also be included in the scope of discussion. A referendum on this is even a possible option.
You should know that the issue of sovereignty between Donbas and Crimea has always been a red line that the Ukrainian government cannot touch. They insist that as long as Russia continues to try to divide Ukraine, there is no need to talk to Russia. Even when Russia has surrounded Mariupol , and the main Ukrainian troops guarding the city are only a few blocks left in their hands, the Ukrainian government still refused Russia's so-called ultimatum.
But this time Zelensky's attitude has rarely softened, which is enough to show that the losses in Ukraine today are almost unacceptable. Previously, the head of Ukraine's economic sector said that the war caused at least US$500 billion in losses to Ukraine. What is this concept? You should know that in 2021, Ukraine's GDP is only about 200 billion US dollars. This war is equivalent to destroying Ukraine's 2.5 years of GDP, which is obviously unacceptable to them.
Zelensky's attitude softened at this time, and to some extent it was also considering the fate of the Ukrainian people. But then again, things that cannot be obtained on the battlefield cannot be imagined at the negotiating table. This sentence also applies to Russia.Next, it depends on whether the progress of the Russian army can give them enough bargaining chips. If the progress is still relatively small after paying a very heavy casualty price like in the past month, then they will occupy at most Ukraine's Azov coastal territory, and they will not be able to obtain more benefits through negotiations.
