My favorite is a hero. One day he will marry me on the seven-colored clouds. I only guessed the front, but I couldn't guess the ending...
When we look back at the steel price in 2022, we may say, only guessed the front, but I couldn't guess the ending. After all, at the beginning of the year, experts boldly predicted that my country's steel prices will be low at first and high at the end in 2022. Looking back now, the steel prices in 2022 are both low.
For the steel industry, after the high temperature in July and August, the market will usher in a golden cycle of "Golden September and Silver October". However, at present, the start of the "Golden September" in the steel industry is not very optimistic. The overall market demand for the "Golden September" has not yet been released, and steel prices have not seen a significant increase. You should know that the industry has a saying that "Golden nine is not 'gold', silver ten is difficult to 'silver'". The current lack of steel quality has also shaken the industry's confidence in the industry in the second half of the year.
If anyone in many industries is most looking forward to the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", the steel industry, which is filled with "cold" this year, is definitely one of them. Affected by the epidemic, real estate development, infrastructure and other factors, steel prices fluctuated and downward, which was transmitted to steel companies' performance in the first half of 2022, and the decline in revenue and net profit year-on-year became the mainstream performance of steel companies in the first half of the year. The steel price and performance under pressure on
also attracted much attention in the steel industry's performance in the "Golden September and Silver October". However, the "Golden September" has quietly exceeded half, but the performance of the steel industry has not yet shown any obvious results. Many people are puzzled that macroeconomic favorable policies are coming one after another, major infrastructure projects in various places are frequently started, and the clear and cool weather in autumn is also conducive to construction site construction, but the demand for steel market still cannot grow effectively. What is the problem?
Yesterday, 9 steel mills lowered the ex-factory price of construction steel 10-50 yuan/ton. The domestic steel market price fell, and the ex-factory price of Qian'anpu square billet in Tangshan was lowered by 50 to 3,660 yuan/ton. Rebar , iron ore and other futures prices fell, market sentiment was weak, and most merchants lowered prices and shipped, and the overall transaction performance was average. At the same time, the futures spiral fluctuated downward, with the closing price of 3686 falling 1.63%, DIF and DEA tend to be parallel, and the RSI three-line indicator is at 33-40, operating between the middle and lower rails of the Bollinger Band.
Review this week's rebar and hot coil futures prices did not fall sharply due to the decrease in demand, and the spot price of steel materials is also consolidating at a low level, with no clear up and down trend. Will steel prices continue to rebound next week or choose to break through and downward? We believe that the probability of a decline is relatively high, and there are three reasons:
1. The trend of increasing supply in the steel market is becoming more and more obvious
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Friday showed that domestic crude steel, pig iron and steel production rebounded in August. Among them, the national daily crude steel production in August increased by 0.5% this year compared with the same period last year for the first time, reaching 2.705 million tons, an increase of 2.97% over the previous month. The output and inventory data of key steel companies in early September released by the China Iron and Steel Association on Thursday also showed that output increased slightly, with inventory growth reaching more than 7%.
Entered September, and the supply side of steel mills only increased and the blast furnace operating rate remained at a high of more than 81%. According to statistics, the total inventory of the 40 major steel markets in the country this week was 12.1536 million tons, an increase of 225,100 tons from last week, an increase of 1.79%. Steel mill inventory and social inventory increased simultaneously this week, the first time in nearly three months.
2. The demand for steel market is subject to the steel for real estate
On Friday, the National Bureau of Statistics released the domestic real estate industry data for August. Among them, the completion data is unique, and the "security and delivery" policy and residents' choice to buy existing houses are the driving force.
Let’s take a look at two data that have a great impact on the demand for the steel market: from January to August, the newly started housing area was 850.62 million square meters, a decrease of 37.2%; in August, the land purchase area decreased by 49.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 48.1% from the previous seven months.
The area of newly started houses in China continues to decline and shows an expansion trend. The trend of real estate developers' land purchase area is more obvious, almost halfway. The above two data means that the demand for real estate steel will not only not increase in the fourth quarter, but will continue to decline. Let’s put it this way, the “cold winter” in the steel market may not have really arrived yet.
3. Feder interest rate hike will suppress steel prices rebound
On Tuesday evening, the United States announced that August CPI data increased by 8.3% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, and triggering a sharp fluctuation in the global financial and commodity markets, with non-ferrous metals and ferrous metals leading the decline. Although the domestic steel market has not fallen much, the rebound has come to an abrupt end.
htmlOn September 22, Federal will announce the interest rate decision result, and 's interest rate hike boots are about to land. Whether it is a 75 basis point hike or 100 basis points, the impact on the global commodity market is still very far-reaching. Some people say that the U.S. rate hike has little impact on the domestic steel market. Wrong!
Review the Fed's interest rate hike process from 2013 to 2014. The global commodity market has gradually declined slowly, and the prices of iron ore, coking coal and coke fell to historical lowest levels. It can be expected that the "power" of this round of Fed's interest rate hike may gradually emerge.
Song Mingjuan, senior analyst at China Steel Network Information Research Institute, said that the steel market is currently affected by many factors at home and abroad. Rate hikes and epidemics are all external factors, while internal factors are changes in supply and demand relationships. Driven by stable economic policies, the gradual improvement of demand is promising in the future. However, if the supply side continues to increase without restrictions at the current pace, the future of the steel market may be in a state of tragedy in the long run!
Maybe when we really look back at the end of the year and look back at the steel market in 2022, we may use one to describe it, and this word is "difficult". "Difficult", a difficult word, cannot describe the difficulties of steel traders in 2022!" Perhaps at the end of the year, when many steel traders were taking stock of the annual operating performance, they all sighed so much that their melancholy expression and pessimism reflected the difficult business trajectory of this year.
As the industry with the largest steel consumption, the key signals of the real estate industry can directly influence the market confidence and future expectations of black commodities. From the overall trend, the era of rapid growth of real estate in my country has come to an end. In the short term, in the Look, after the introduction of an effective bottom-up policy, it will have a certain boosting effect on black products that have fallen to low levels. But in the long run, the steel industry will face the pain of consumer structure transformation in the future. Whether it can get rid of its dependence on the real estate industry will be a key factor that determines the future direction of the steel industry.
The development trend of the real estate industry, famous economist Ren Zeping said that looking at population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term. With the development of the development, my country's urbanization rate has grown from 17.92% to 64.7%, and the room for the real estate market to rise has become smaller. From 1962 to 1976, the baby boom promoted the great development of real estate in my country. After the housing reform in 1998, the demand for buying houses for the baby boomer generation grew up, and the real estate industry ushered in a golden 20 years. Now, as the baby boomer generation grows up, the birth rate of the new population has fallen, and my country's population is showing a trend of aging and less birth, and education, medical care, etc. are facing huge pressure. At present, the country has begun to liberalize the third child , local governments also encourage fertility. Under the influence of a series of measures, China's fertility rate will definitely bottom out and rebound. In the future, the population will gather in the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and regional central cities. Childcare, health care, etc. will be industries supported by the state, and the real estate market will continue to differentiate.
At the end of last year, Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that my country's economic development faces the triple pressure of contraction of demand, supply shock, and weakening of expectations. The so-called weakening of expectations is a matter of confidence.
A set of real estate data released on Tuesday morning is estimated to be "cold" when market participants see it. According to a report by the China Index Academy, during the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday in 2022 (September 10-September 12), the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in key monitored cities decreased by 31.6% compared with last year's Mid-Autumn Festival holiday (September 19-September 21). The scale of new home transactions in most cities is still significantly lower than last year's Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, while the decline in Changsha, Xi'an, Nanjing and other places are all above 70%.
In the final analysis, residents have no money in their hands, and they dare not buy a house even if they have money. They lack confidence in improving their future income and are confused about the economic prospects. Some people say that real estate is no longer possible, and there is still a demand for steel for infrastructure. Well, an indicator announced before the holiday may come to the face. Hours of Komatsu excavator started in August 2022 showed that the number of hours of starting from construction in China's Komatsu excavator in August was 98.6 hours, a slight decrease of 1% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, setting a new historical monthly indicator low, indicating that the start of infrastructure in China in August was not optimistic.
can be understood in this way. Due to local financial constraints, the excavator working hours were insufficient in August, and the fact that infrastructure projects were reduced was there. It is unrealistic to expect a large increase in steel demand in September and October.
Overall, the era of major development belonging to real estate is coming to an end. As for whether new energy, digital economy, , etc. replace the real estate industry? It should be clear that the transformation of new and old kinetic energy requires time to exchange space, which will be a long-term process.
Speaking of the steel industry, Ren Zeping said that my country's steel industry is already at its peak. The long-term changes in the macroeconomic situation, the demand for new energy, digital economy, new infrastructure, etc. has increased, the demand for old infrastructure has declined, the space for the steel market has become smaller, and the steel industry has entered a painful period of structural adjustment. For steel industry enterprises, how to achieve greater development in the recovery of macroeconomic and capture new opportunities in the adjustment of demand structure still needs extensive exploration.
Zhonggang Network comprehensive Lange Steel Network, reference information, latest steel prices, etc. The content is the author's personal opinion. "Zhonggang Network" only provides reference and does not constitute any investment and application suggestions.
