The candidate for the 2020 "general election" of the Kuomintang Han Kuo-yu is not favorable in the young people block. Shixin University Professor Peng Huai-en said in an interview with China Review News that universities ended the semester in advance on January 10 because the Tsai authorities believe that most young people support Tsai and hope to let students return home to vote. However, Han Kuo-yu is very useful to provide student loans with interest-free and one-year exchange students. If there are more specific methods to implement, it will have a greater impact on Tsai. However, the turnout rate of young people has never been high, so the influence is mainly on online public opinion, that is, the momentum.
Talking about the Blue Army, Peng Huaien analyzed that New Taipei Mayor Hou Youyi won 1.165,130 votes last year, Su Zhenchang of the DPP only won 873,692 votes, and Hou won 291,438 votes. Therefore, Hou may be thinking about the opportunity to win the "big position" in 2024, so he retained his attitude towards supporting South Korea and has not agreed to accept the chairman of the Northern Campaign Headquarters so far. Because Lu Xiuyan had been on the same stage as Han, it is not a problem to accept the chairman of the Central Campaign Headquarters. The most important key is that there is no need to worry about the rise in South Korea's momentum and polls.
As for the influence of Hon Hai , the founder of Hon Hai , he said that terrified Guo Taiming's dissatisfaction in the Kuomintang primary election almost disappeared, and Hon Hai recently received a "Apple" order. I believe Guo will not be in a bad mood, not to mention that there are not many "Guo Family Army". One or two are not called "army", and even guerrillas are not counted, so it is not worth fearing.
He pointed out that Wang Jinping, the Kuomintang’s “legislator” and former “legislator”, had made a mistake this time. People First Party Chairman Song Chuyu will not cooperate with Wang; Wang’s two major connections, the “Blue Committee” and local factions are supportive of Han, and Wang does not want to leave the Kuomintang. As long as Han’s momentum keeps climbing up, Wang will not pull back.
He said that although Song Chuyu came out to choose, it was impossible to get 1.57 million votes like the 2016 "general election", as long as there is a vote rate of 2% to 5%, it may have an impact, because the gap between South Korea and Tsai is only between 4% and 5%.
He analyzed to the China Review News Agency that from a regional perspective, the blue and green sector is still "north blue and south green", but Han Kuo-yu has hope of making the southern part turn around, because, Han became the mayor of Kaohsiung , and even if he is taking leave to run for the election now, Kaohsiung is still in the hands of the Blues.
2. The greenest Tainan City, this time, former Kuomintang chairman , Hung Hsiu-chu, , ran for the "legislator". It doesn't matter whether Hong can win the election, but her run makes everyone think that the Kuomintang has been unable to win in Tainan for 20 years, and is almost "dead". Now someone has come out, showing the momentum of "losing but not losing".
He pointed out that from the perspective of ethnic politics, supporting Tsai Ing-wen is dominated by ethnic groups in southern Fujian; Han Kuo-yu is dominant by ethnic groups in other provinces and Hakka groups that are close to the Kuomintang, but the two ethnic groups only account for about 30% of the population, the number of "indigenous people" is also small, and the traditional military village votes have long withered. It is worth noting that the "new residents" including the mainland and Southeast Asian outsourcing. If the second generation has voting rights, they may be close to 1 million votes.
He said that the DPP Taoyuan Mayor Zheng Wencan has put a lot of effort into the "new residents", but most of the "new residents" still support the Kuomintang, and only Southeast Asia's foreign subscribers are more likely to be influenced by the green husband's family.
He said that from the perspective of professional groups, some white-collar workers think Han Kuo-yu is relatively "rustic" and does not graduate from National Taiwan University, but South Korea's education is already very good; but in terms of blue-collar workers, South Korea has an advantage, especially "Wen Shanbo", Chen Qingmao, "Xingren Ge" and others are very useful to assist in elections, so this "general election" is like a "people's war". South Korea does not rely on good education and famous speakers to assist in elections, but uses some people from agriculture, forestry, fishery, animal husbandry and mines to assist in elections.
He pointed out to the China Review News Agency that Ma Ying-jeou (6.891,139 votes) won a total of 797,561 votes in the 2012 "general election" against Tsai Ing-wen (6.093,578 votes). 2016 "General Election" Zhu Lilun (3.813365 votes) lost to Tsai Ing-wen (6.894744 votes), a total of 3.081379 votes. However, at that time, due to factors such as "changing pillars", Zhu's strength was too weak, the blue camp's poor governance, and Song Chuyu won 1.576861 votes.
He analyzed that the situation this time was completely different. Han Kuo-yu is a charming leader, and neither Tsai Ing-wen nor his possible deputy Lai Ching-te. Therefore, based on the current situation, the gap in votes between South Korea and Tsai may be between 4% and 5%. If the turnout rate is based on 65% of the turnout rate, the turnout rate of 1% is 125,700, and the number of votes is about 502,800 to 628,500.
Peng Huai'en said that temples are the center of local activities, and traditional temple worship is only useful for candidates for "legislators", so whether Cai and Han worship temples, there must be local "legislators" candidates. However, South Korea's tactics are obviously creating a whirlwind, and the momentum will be bigger and bigger. Especially before the Korean camp's speech, the Golden Week will be held in , Taichung, , and 1 million people will be held in , Taichung, ; as for Cai and Lai, they are on the line of the literary youth, it is impossible to build momentum.
Regarding the "legislator" election, Peng Huaien pointed out that the DPP's senior management evaluates the poor election of the "legislator"; whether the Kuomintang can exceed half depends on whether the Taiwan People's Party and the power of the times are selected well.
Peng Huai'en said that "Shili" has almost been cracked by the DPP; the chairman of the People's Party and mayor of Taipei , Ke Wen-je, , did not elect, resulting in the decline of most of the momentum. The poll support of both parties seems to be between 6% and 8%, but they mainly support young people, and the unsatisfactory turnout of young people is a big problem, so as long as the two parties are not elected well, the Kuomintang will have more than half of the chance (57 seats). As for whether the People First Party can cross the 5% threshold, it may be difficult, let alone other small parties.
Source: Hong Kong China Review Newsletter
