Liu Qiannan
Investment Consulting Practice Certificate Number: Z0014425
html l3 shipping/container capacity
[Important information]
1. Dry bulk freight rate: BDI on the 10/21st was 1819 points, -0.98% month-on-month and -60.91% year-on-year.
2. Container freight rate: SCFI container freight index for the week of 10/21 was 1778.69, month-on-month, and year-on-61.2%, among which Shanghai-Mexi container freight rate is US$2029/FEU, month-on-month, and year-on-68%; Shanghai-Europe container freight rate is US$2379/TEU, month-on-month, and year-on-69%.
3. As of 10/22, Clarksons' global container ship congestion index was 29.1%, compared with -5.2pct a week ago.
According to Clarksons data, as of 10/22, the global container port berthing capacity is 7.4 million TEU, a decrease of 15% compared with a week ago. Among them, China's container ship berthing capacity is 1.83 million TEU, a decrease of 10% compared with a week ago. Global (except China) container ship berthing capacity is 5.57 million TEU, a decrease of 17% compared with a week ago.
4. The number of people requested initial unemployment benefits in the United States to October 15 was 214,000, with an expected 230,000, compared with the previous value of 228,000.
5. The Ministry of Coal in India said that India will stop importing thermal coal from 2024 to 2025; it plans to produce 900 million tons of coal in 2022 and auction 163 coal mines.
[Traffic Outlook]
containers, the demand side was affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and global high inflation. The United States' CPI and PPI exceeded expectations in September, and the expectation of interest rate hikes was further strengthened. U.S. import demand is expected to weaken significantly in the fourth quarter. The supply and demand pattern of container transportation is gradually turning loose, and the US line freight rates have fallen near the cost price of small freight forwarders. Freight rates are expected to continue to fall in the short term, supported by airline suspension, but the decline has narrowed. In terms of dry bulk, in terms of coal demand, Europe recently launched a package of emergency energy measures. Although the domestic epidemic has affected the epidemic, the supply of coal has increased, but the demand for thermal coal is still strong in winter, and the shipping of Indonesian coal has recovered. In terms of iron ore, the shipment of Brazilian has been reduced, but the domestic epidemic has caused the reduction in scrap steel usage to support the demand for iron ore. Pay attention to the future progress of infrastructure projects. In terms of food, shipment volume is affected by the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the decline in inland water levels in the United States. Shipping is still under pressure. It is expected that the water level of the Mississippi River will not improve significantly before the end of October. Dry bulk freight rates are expected to remain fluctuating in the short term, and there is still room for rebound in the fourth quarter, but the height is limited.
soybean/meal
【Foreign market situation】
CBOT soybean index rises 0.3%, closing at 1405 cents /pi, US soybean meal index rose 0.91%, closing at 408.9 USD/short ton;
[Important information]
1.Fastmarkets Agricensus: EU production in 2022/23 is expected to increase to 17.9 million tons, so rapeseed imports may fall by 3% year-on-year to 7 million tons; at the same time, Ukraine's rapeseed supply to the EU region may increase by 2.4% to 2.1 million tons. The EU's sunflower seed production in 2022/23 is expected to increase to 10.5 million tons, and imports are expected to drop by 10.7% to 2.5 million tons;
2. Oil World: In 2022, Canada's rapeseed production will recover significantly. Despite delays in planting, favorable weather on the prairie in September and October allows farmers to harvest cereals and oilseed crops before cold and wet weather arrives. In Saskatchewan , as of October 17, 99% of rapeseed crops were harvested, 17% of the area had been harvested in the past two weeks, and as of October 4, 2021, 98% of the crops had been harvested.Preliminary output estimates are further improved. The average output in Saskatchewan is currently set at 36 bu/acre or 2.0T/ha;
3.CFTCh: As of the week ending October 18, CBOT soybean non-commercial net long positions fell to 54,683 lots, down 1,086 lots from the past week, 43,541 lots in the same period last year, and the high in the same period in recent years was 259,872 lots in 2020;
4. My agricultural products: As of October 21, the actual crushing volume of soybeans in 111 oil plants was 1.606 million tons, with a starting rate of 55.82%. The actual opening rate of oil plants this week is lower than the previous expectations, 34,500 tons lower than the estimate; 46,400 tons lower than the actual crushing volume in the previous week;
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: Domestic spot supply is tight, crushing profit loss, North America's production increase is lower than expected to give strong bottom support to domestic meals. However, the planting prospects of new Brazilian products are good, and the pre-sale progress is slower than in previous years. It is expected that the market will still fluctuate widely;
2. Arbitrage: M11-1 set
3. Options : Sell M2301-C-4200 & Sell M2301-P-4000 (views are for reference only, not used as a basis for trading)
Grease sector
[External market impact]
Cbot US soybean oil main price change range +1.35% to 71.45 cents/pound; BMD Horse Palm Oil main price change range +0.00% to RM4,100/ton.
[Important Information]
1.SPPOMA: From October 1 to 20, Malaysia oil palm fresh fruit bunch yield increased by 1.74%, oil yield decreased by 0.01%, and palm oil output increased by 1.70%.
2.SPPOMA: From October 1 to 15, 2022, Malaysia's oil palm fruit buns decreased by 5.80%, the oil yield remained unchanged, and palm oil production decreased by 5.80%.
3. Indonesia's palm oil export volume fell by as much as 16% in 2021-22, but exports are expected to rebound in 2022-23. The USDA expects the country's exports to reach 28.5 million tons, a 26% increase from 2021-22.
4. According to Reuters, the Indian government will not increase palm oil import tariffs.
[Trading Strategy]
unilateral strategy: Palm oil strengthened this week, but the marginal changes are limited, so long orders and stop profit. The pattern of soybean rape oil is tight near and loose far remains unchanged, and the trend of fluctuation remains. It is recommended to try short 05 rape oil when it is high. The transportation of soybeans in the United States is hindered and profits continue to lose money. Therefore, the subsequent supply of soybean oil 01 is not optimistic, and consumption expectations in December are good. Therefore, it is recommended to expand YP positions when the price is low.
arbitrage strategy: -800 to -1000 range layout 01 soybean oil-05 The price difference of vegetable oil expands the position.
1200-1300 layout YP expansion.
3. Option strategy: Palm Oil 01 fixed income cumulative selling strategy.
vegetable oil 05 oil fixed income cumulative selling strategy.
(the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry)
corn/corn starch
【 Important information]
1. A weekly report released by the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange (BAGE) stated that after evaluating the losses caused by frost during October 8 and 9, the exchange lowered the 2022/23 Argentina wheat production to 15.2 million tons, down from the 16.5 million tons forecast a week ago. Inadequate precipitation caused 53% of wheat to have poor ratings in the week ended October 19. Argentine wheat will begin to enter the harvest phase within a week.
2. A report released by the USDA Overseas Agricultural Services Agency (FAS) shows that after the record winter crop yields in 2021/22, Australia's market year is expected to achieve its third consecutive bumper year in 2022/23. The sowing season started strongly, followed by adequate precipitation, allowing wheat and barley crops to pass the grouting period safely. A key risk is that rainfall during the harvest season will lead to a decline in the quality of the grain.Australia's wheat production in 2022/23 is expected to be 34 million tons, lower than the record 36.3 million tons in 2021/22, but remains the second largest output in history. It is estimated that the sorghum production will reach 2.6 million tons in 2022/23, the fourth largest output in history, and the export will reach 2.1 million tons close to the historical record.
3, data from the Russian Federal Bureau of Statistics shows that as of October 1, 2022, the cereal inventory held by the agricultural organization was 45.9 million tons, an increase of 13.7 million tons or 43% over the same period in 2021. Among them, wheat stocks were 33 million tons, an increase of 11.5 million tons or 54% year-on-year. Corn stocks were 1.2 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 492,500 tons or 30%. The total sunflower seed inventory was 1.2 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 525,500 tons or 31%.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: The pressure of domestic corn futures prices to pull back during the autumn harvest period is increasing. It is recommended that industrial customers can participate in selling and hedging when highs are high. Corn starch is short-term to destock , and it has the motivation to rebound and repair.
2. Arbitrage: expand the starch corn price difference.
3. Options: Sell c2301-C-2880, or sell c2301-C-2880 and sell c2301-P-2660. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
pig
[Related information]
1. Spot quote: The overall national pig price has risen during the weekend, among which East 27.2-27.55 yuan/kg in the northern region, up 0.14-0.37 yuan/kg, North China area 27.9-28.1 yuan/kg, up 0.46-0.73 yuan/kg, East China 28.23-28.5 yuan/kg, up 0.06-0.19 yuan/kg, Southwest region 27.2-27.6 yuan/kg, up 0.16-0.34 yuan/kg, South China 28.65-29.7 yuan/kg , up 0.33-0.54 yuan/kg;
2. Piglet sow price: As of the week of October 20, 2022, the national price of 15 kilogram piglets was 799 yuan, up 73 yuan/head from the previous week, and the sow price was 1,829 yuan, up 16 yuan/head from the previous week;
3. National Development and Reform Commission: The state requires all localities to follow the pork reserve adjustment plan, Increase efforts to continue to release pork reserves in multiple batches. Important points such as the Winter Solstice, New Year's Day and next year's Spring Festival, as well as key areas where the pen is reluctant to sell, secondary fattening is too much, and the price level is too high, further increase reserve release efforts;
4. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs : On October 21, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 130.26, a decrease of 0.08 points, and the "vegetable basket" product wholesale price index was 132.51, a decrease of 0.10 points. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 35.67 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; beef was 78.53 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; mutton was 67.83 yuan/kg, up 0.4%; eggs were 12.40 yuan/kg, up 0.3%; white-striped chicken 19.16 yuan/kg, down 0.2%.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Single sided: It is recommended to continue holding short positions in the near future;
2. Arbitrage: LH1-3 reverse the set
3. Options: Buy LH2301-P-23500 and sell at the same time LH2301-P-22500 (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market)
Chicken
[Important information]
1. White Feathered Boiled Chicken: Last night, the mainstream quotation in front of Shandong White Feathered Broiled Chicken Peak was 4.70 yuan/jin, and the price was at the stage high. It is expected that the price of feather chicken will be stable tonight, with the quotation in front of the shed of 4.70 yuan/jin. (My Agricultural Products Network)
2. White-feathered broiler chicken seedlings: On October 24, the price of the white-feathered chicken seedlings in Dachang of Shandong tomorrow will be 4.20 yuan/feather, and the price will be increased by 0.10 yuan/feather compared to today. It is expected that the transaction price of Shandong chicken seedlings will continue to rise tomorrow. The transaction price of Zhongdachang chicken seedlings is 3.70-4.00 yuan/feather, and the transaction price of Xiaochang chicken seedlings is 3.40-3.60 yuan/feather. (My Agricultural Products Network)
3.Segmented products: Shandong Binzhou branched products are still available on weekends, with a single frozen big breast transaction price range of 12.05-13.03 yuan/kg; a single frozen haired breast transaction price range of 11.75-12.53 yuan/kg.
4. Zhuochuang Information :10/14-10/20th. On the 20th, Zhuochuang Information monitored the white-feather broiler sample enterprises with a total of 47.912 million birds. The total number of seedlings of
fell by 0.23%, a year-on-year decrease of 12.29%.
5. Zhuochuang Information: The survival rate of broiler breeding in September was 94%, an increase of 2pct from August month-on-month, and the same year-on-year period last year.
6. In September, China's white-feathered broiler output was 460 million, a month-on-month and -2.3% year-on-year. From January to September 2022, the total output of white-feathered broilers was 3.604 billion, a year-on-year-on-year.
7. Zhuochuang Information: From 10/14 to 10/20, the average operating rate of domestic key white-feathered broiler slaughtering enterprises was 65.88%, down 0.76
html; the average inventory capacity rate was 63.76%, down 1.35 percentage points from last week.
8. On the 20th local time, the Dutch government said that a highly contagious avian influenza strain was detected at a farm in the south of the Netherlands and would culpture 300,000 chickens there. The Dutch health department said that since the first detection of the new avian influenza strain on October 26 last year, the Netherlands has culled about 5.8 million birds, including chickens, turkey and various waterfowls, at 98 locations across the country. (CCTV News)
[Traffic Outlook]
Supply end, considering that the amount of chicken seedlings replenished in September is not large, it is expected that the overall supply of chickens in October will still be relatively small. On the demand side, the start of slaughterhouses last week continued to decline, the manufacturer's inventory was low, and the price of divided products formed a certain support. Considering that the consumption off-season is expected to be weak in the short term, the prices of supply and demand are mainly fluctuating. Looking at the entire fourth quarter, with the support of high breeding costs, the overall price of chicken is still expected to be at a high level.
Eggs
[Important information]
1. Spot: The national egg price rose on the weekend, with mainstream mainstream Shimen, Beijing, Xinfadi , Huilongguan and other mainstream wholesale prices of 276 yuan/44 jin, up 6 yuan from Friday's price. Today, the national egg price rose mainly, and the prices in Beijing market rose. The mainstream wholesale prices such as Shimen, Xinfadi, Huilongguan, etc. were 280 yuan/44 jin, up 4 yuan from yesterday's price. As of 6 a.m., Dayang Road has a total of 9 cars arrived, with more goods and fast goods. The mainstream wholesale prices are 280-283 yuan, up 3-5 yuan from yesterday's price. The price of eggs in Shanghai continued to rise, with the price of ordinary powdered eggs being 283 yuan/45 jin, up 5 yuan from yesterday, and the red eggs being 173-174 yuan/27.5 jin, up 5 yuan from yesterday. Today, the prices in Liaoning in Northeast China rose, prices in Jilin rose, and egg prices in Heilongjiang rose; most of the mainstream prices in Shandong continued to rise, with the prices in Henan, prices in Shanxi, prices in Hebei rising, prices in Hubei increased, prices in Jiangsu and Anhui rose, prices in local eggs rose, prices in local eggs continued to fluctuate and consolidate, and the goods were normal.
2. Zhuochuang data: In September 2022, the national laying hen stock was 1.184 billion, an increase of 0.2% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year, in line with expectations. In September, the monthly emergence of the sample enterprises' egg hen seedlings (accounting for 50% of the country) was 37.46 million birds, an increase of 4.3% month-on-month and a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year.
3. According to Zhuochuang data: the number of laying hens in the main production areas in the country in October 21 was 13.61 million, an increase of 3.2% over the previous week. According to Zhuochuang Information, the elimination chicken -day age in key production areas across the country was monitored and counted. The average elimination age of elimination chickens in the week of October 20 was 529 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week.
4. According to Zhuochuang data: the national representative sales area of eggs in the week of October 20 was 7794 tons, an increase of 0.4% over the previous week.
5. According to Zhuochuang data: the inventory and inventory of the production link in the week of October 20 increased slightly, with the average weekly inventory of the production link being 1.24 days, an increase of 0.04 from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory of the circulation link being 0.87 days, an increase of 0.03 days from the previous week.
[Operation suggestions]
1. Unilateral: Currently, eggs maintain low inventory and high cost and peak demand season characteristics. Moreover, the pork price has recently strongly supported the egg price. The spot price of eggs rose strongly again after a slight decrease last week. Affected by the strengthening of egg spot, the price of egg futures will continue to maintain a strong fluctuation.
2. Arbitrage: Due to the strong spot price, it is expected that the near-month and the far-month are relatively weak. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
sugar
[Important information]
1. Last week, the spot transaction price of Guangxi white sugar this week's operating range is 5532~5570 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase and fall of 0.61%, down 34 yuan/ton from October 15. The spot quotation of sugar companies is mainly adjusted below. As of last Friday, the mainstream quotation of Guangxi Sugar Manufacturing Group was 5,590-5,700 yuan/ton, down 10-20 yuan/ton from October 15; the quotation of Yunnan Sugar Manufacturing Group was 5,590-5,620 yuan/ton, which was the same week-on-month; the mainstream quotation range of processing sugar factories was 5,720-5,930 yuan/ton, down 10-20 yuan/ton from October 15.
2. In view of the recent situation of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in my country, in response to the national epidemic prevention and control requirements, China Sugar Industry Association decided to postpone the "2022/23 National Sugar Production and Sales Conference" originally scheduled to be held in Haikou City, Hainan Province from November 1-2, 2022 to December 1-2, 2022.
3. Mabang Chief Minister Eknath Shinde urged Prime Minister Narendra Modi to continue to implement the existing open export policy rather than set quotas for sugar exports in the 2022/23 pressing season. Shinde has sent a letter to the Prime Minister saying Mabang's sugar mills are against quota-based sugar exports because it will limit production. Chief Minister Ma Bang asked the Prime Minister to intervene and directed the Ministry of Commerce, the Ministry of Consumer Protection and the Ministry of Food and Public Affairs to make appropriate decisions. Mabang Chief Minister said that the central government's open policy will help India become the world's largest sugar exporter, helping factories become financially stable and increase foreign exchange. It is reported that starting this year, a quota system will be implemented for sugar exports. The policy allows sugar mills that are not interested in exports to transfer their quotas to other sugar mills, which will create administrative barriers and lack of transparency and lack of freedom and fairness in trade.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: Last week, raw sugar has been falling continuously. In the environment of loose domestic sugar supply, it is expected that domestic sugar prices will be insufficient in the short term.
2. Arbitrage: wait and see.
3. Options: Sell SR301-C-5800. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Cotton-Cotton Yarn
[Foreign market impact]
ICE US cotton price strengthened last Friday, with the December contract rising 1.86 cents/pound (2.4%) to 79.4 cents/pound.
[Important Information]
1. According to the latest export report of USDA, the US 2022/23 upland cotton signed contracts for 19,200 tons in the 2022/23 upland cotton in the week of October 13, and the contract volume was significantly reduced compared with the previous week. As of the week, the cumulative contract volume of upland cotton was 1.8983 million tons, and the contract progress was 71%, 10 percentage points higher than the 5-year average, and the weekly shipment volume was 37,600 tons. The cumulative shipment volume as of the week was 537,400 tons. The shipment progress was not 20%, which was 6 percentage points higher than the 5-year average.
2. According to the survey data of 900 farmers in 14 provinces, regions, 46 counties and cities, as of October 20, 2022, the national cotton market monitoring system had a national new cotton picking progress of 60.3%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the average in the past four years, of which the Xinjiang picking progress was 60.0%. According to a survey of 60 large and medium-sized cotton processing enterprises, as of October 20, a total of 1.71 million tons of seed cotton wool sold nationwide, a year-on-year decrease of 886,000 tons, a decrease of 989,000 tons from the average of the past four years, of which 1.61 million tons were sold in Xinjiang.
3. As of 24:00 on October 20, the cotton processing data for 2022 are as follows: Xinjiang has a total of 384,800 tons processed, a decrease of 52.59% from 811,600 tons in the same period last year. On the 20th, Xinjiang lint was processed 30,700 tons, while the daily processing volume was 60,600 tons in the same period last year.
[Operational Suggestions]
1. Unilateral: Due to the epidemic in Xinjiang, liquidity in various places is restricted, and the progress of cotton processing is slow, and it is also very difficult for Xinjiang cotton to go out of Xinjiang. The stock of cotton in mainland China is also low, and the price of cotton in mainland China is strong. In addition, there are also hidden things in the future, so we need to pay attention to the progress of the listing. The demand side has begun to worsen due to the impact of the epidemic and poor economic form. From a medium- and long-term perspective, cotton will eventually return to supply and demand fundamentals , and the demand for cotton will also face greater pressure as the off-season approaches. Last Friday, US cotton continued to strengthen after Zheng Cotton ended, and it is expected that Zheng Cotton will make up for the opening of and .
2. Arbitrage: Considering that the supply of cotton is large in May, while in September, the supply is small and the demand is good. It is recommended to consider shorting in May and September.
3. Options: You can consider selling call options after the cotton price rebounds to a high level. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Peanut
[Important information]
Yesterday, the domestic peanut price was stable and weak, and the domestic peanut price was stable. The food peanuts are traded lightly, the oil peanuts are sold well, the market is in a clear wait-and-see mood, and the main purchase is on demand. In terms of oil plants, Linyi Yuhuang has a good intention to acquire it, and the purchase price has been raised, with a quotation of 9,900 yuan/ton, with an oil content of 44%. The arrival volume of Luhua is relatively stable. The arrival volume of Laiyang , Zhengyang, Xinxiang and other factories remained at 200-400 tons, with a transaction price of about 9,600 yuan/ton, and some of the high-profile prices of 10,000 yuan/ton.
Peanut Oil: Pressing companies mainly wait and see. Currently, the mainstream quotation for pressing first-class ordinary peanut oil in China is 17,800 yuan/ton; the market quotation for small-pressed strong-flavored peanut oil is different, and the mainstream quotation is 20,000 yuan/ton. In terms of peanut meal, soybean stocks, soybean meal stocks and unexecuted contracts in major oil factories across the country have all declined, and the spot price of soybean meal is still supported. In the short term, the current situation of high basis and high spot prices will continue. The opening rate of peanut oil companies is relatively low, the orders of peanut meal are good, the quotation is relatively strong, the price remains at 5450-5600 yuan/ton, and is increased by 50 yuan/ton.
[Operation Suggestions]
Unilateral Strategy: At the beginning of this week, the spot market of peanuts cooled down, and the peanut price weakened slightly, driving the market to weaken, and then maintained a wide fluctuation. Peanuts are expected to maintain a high fluctuation trend. Judging from the overall industrial structure, the current price of peanuts is relatively high. In addition to oil factories, the acceptance of high-priced peanuts is poor, and downstream consumption is also weakening. The current stage is in the stage of long-short game. The willingness of the oil factory to acquire will directly affect the peanut market, and the capital sentiment will also affect the height of the market, which has little to do with the fundamentals of peanuts. It is recommended to keep waiting and watching for the time being. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in soybean meal prices. If soybean meal prices fall, it will lead to a narrowing of squeeze profits, which will affect the purchasing sentiment of squeezers, and the price of peanuts may be weak.
futures strategy: 01 contract basis is around -200, there is no good term profit, so it is recommended to keep waiting and see. .
htmlMonth difference: There is no trend change in the market yet, and it is recommended to keep waiting and see.
Options: Peanut fixed income cumulative selling strategy.
(the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market)
