According to Tesla's third quarter sales in 2018, the company sold 83,500 cars in the whole quarter, an increase of +220% year-on-year and 105% month-on-month. In this article, we analyze Tesla's sales regional distribution from two scales globally and Chinese.
Where has Tesla sold?
Tesla's sales in 18Q3 quarterly increased by 105% month-on-month, and the super factory accelerated significantly. In 18Q3, the company's sales in a single quarter reached a record 83,500 units, up 220% year-on-year and 105% month-on-month growth. The main reason for the significant increase in the month-on-month growth rate was the smooth climb of Model 3 models this quarter: from July to September, the sales of Model 3 in the United States were 14/16/24,000 units respectively. In the previous eight quarters, the company was constrained by a capacity bottleneck, and its quarterly sales were always in the range of 20,000 to 40,000 vehicles.
Tesla's sales are in the United States. Since Tesla has not officially announced the sales volume of the segmented sub-markets, we have counted the sales volume of Tesla's sub-regions in the first three quarters of 2018 based on data from various automobile associations or customs. In the first three quarters, Tesla sold a total of 154,000 vehicles, of which 107,000 were sold in the United States, accounting for 69% of all sales.
China's customs imports in the first three quarters of 2018 were 6,710 vehicles, accounting for 4.4% of all sales; if based on retail data, it is expected that the terminal retail volume of China's market will exceed 10,000 vehicles (the number of registered vehicles in January 2018 exceeded 3,000 vehicles).
The remaining countries ranked 3-10 include: Canada (4.2%), Norway (4.1%), Netherlands (3.4%), the United Kingdom (1.6%), Germany (1.0%), Switzerland (0.8%), France (0.6%), and Sweden (0.6). Other automotive markets that have not been accurately counted include: Australia, Hong Kong, South Korea and Japan.
Denmark and Hong Kong, China are two more obvious markets in the world where Tesla's sales plummeted: mainly affected by the exit of preferential policies.
(1) Starting from 2016, Denmark will resume taxation on imported new energy vehicles, and will resume the gradient from 2016/2019/2020/2021/2022 to 20%/40%/65%/90%/100% of the original 180% tax rate. Tesla reached 525 and 1,248 vehicles in the first two months before the implementation of Denmark's new tax policy, but since 2016, it fell sharply to less than 100 vehicles per month.
(2) Hong Kong, China, exempted the "first registration tax" from new energy vehicles before April 2017, but with the recovery of this tax, although sales jumped to 3,679 units in 2017, Tesla sold only 32 units in Hong Kong in the following three quarters.
Which states in the United States have Tesla sold?
According to Edmunds data, before 2015Q2, the top four sales states of Tesla Model S' new cars were mainly areas with higher temperatures, among which California accounts for the absolute majority: California (45.2%), Florida (7.3%), Texas (5.8%), and Washington state (4.6%). Areas with relatively cold winters, such as Illinois (4.3%), New York (3.6%), New Jersey (3.3%), rank 5-7 in sales. The sales data of
The second-hand Model S is relatively similar, with the top four still being: California (30.5%), Florida (11.2%), Washington (8.9%), and Texas (8.3%).
Where have Tesla been sold in China?
According to Chinese customs data, the import volume of Tesla in China has increased significantly since March 2016, from the previous average of more than 100 units to more than 1,000 units. Since then, it has been maintained at the level of 800-1,000 units per month for a long time. In terms of model structure, Model X accounts for nearly 40% in the month, and Model S accounts for nearly 60%. Since July 6, as China imposed an additional 25% tariff on imported cars in the United States, Tesla's imports in China have dropped sharply in the third quarter, with only 145, 46 and 35 vehicles in July, August and September.
Tesla's sales distribution is mainly based on first- and second-tier developed cities. By city, the sales distribution of Model S and Model X in China is basically similar. Among them, eight cities including Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Xi'an, and Tianjin are Tesla's main sales cities in China, and only Chengdu and Xi'an are non-limited cities. Model S and Model X account for 91.84% and 86.68% of sales in the top ten cities respectively.
by province, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Sichuan rank in the top five. In 2017, Shanghai (4471), Guangdong (3919), Beijing (3827), Zhejiang (1881), and Sichuan (927) were the top five provinces in Tesla's sales.The cities with higher sales after that include: Shaanxi, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Shandong and Hubei.
Tesla has spread to all provincial administrative regions in mainland China. According to the registration data in January 2018, the total number of registrations for that month was 3,000, including Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai and Beijing. Except for the three regions of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, all 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government in China have Tesla's license registration records (including Tibet, Qinghai, Xinjiang, Ningxia and other high-altitude and remote areas).
Take Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province as examples. In 2017, Tesla's sales have already spread to 17 prefecture-level cities in Shandong and 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu, but sales are mainly concentrated in economically developed cities in the province ( Suzhou , Nanjing, Wuxi , Qingdao, Jinan).
What is the ratio of Tesla's sales to BBA in various places?
We selected 15 countries and regions with the highest sales of Tesla for statistics. Norway (29.2%), the United States (16.6%), the Netherlands (12.9%), Canada (6.7%) and New Zealand (3.8%) ranked the five countries with the highest sales ratio of Tesla. China's ratio in the first three quarters was 0.5%, which is still at a low level.
Take the January 2018 data as an example. China's Tesla/BBA ratio is not much different in each province, with the median being 1.5% and the average being 1.6%. Among them, Tibet, Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Hainan and other places ranked in the top four due to the low BBA base. The ratios of Tesla's higher sales in Shanghai (2.2%), Guangdong (1.9%) and Beijing (1.8%) are slightly higher than the national average.
