directory:
. Price adjustment: Steel mills have a significant decline, and scrap steel prices have declined across the board!
. Forecast: Steel prices need or will rise slightly
. Four major pressures lead to the peak season of steel market
. Domestic iron ore output forecast in Hebei and Shanxi in October
. l3
. Winter storage is approaching, thermal coal supply and demand pattern analysis
, Tangshan billets lost 151 yuan, oil prices fell seventh this year
, Is the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike continue to be negative for the steel market?
. Price adjustment: Steel mills have a significant decline, and scrap steel prices have declined across the board!
According to data from the China Steel Network Information Research Institute, (WeChat official account: China Steel Network ), a total of 22 steel mills adjusted prices today, of which : lowered 15 companies, accounting for 68.2%, with a price adjustment of 10-60 yuan/ton, with the largest decline being Yuxi Xianfu Building Materials; stable 7 companies, accounting for 31.8%. specific price adjustment details are as follows:
Steel mill price adjustment
Today, a total of 10 steel mills in building materials have been re-regulated, of which:
has been raised by 6 companies, accounting for 60%, with a price adjustment range of 20-60 yuan/ton.
stable 4 companies, accounting for 40%.
Today, 12 steel mills have released prices, including:
, accounting for 75%, with a price adjustment range of 10-50 yuan/ton.
stable 3 companies, accounting for 25%.
Today's steel mill brief analysis
. Steel futures market price
On September 21, the domestic steel market rose and fell, and the factory-included tax fell by 20 yuan/ton. In terms of transactions, the transaction volume was light in the early trading, and the transaction price dropped significantly. In the afternoon, the spiral rebounded at a low level, transactions improved, low-priced resources disappeared, and prices returned to the mainstream.
On September 21, the closing price of the main contract of futures spirals fell 0.70%, DIF and DEA overlapped, and the RSI three-line indicators were located at 33-40, operating between the lower and middle rails of the Bollinger band.
On September 21, four steel mills lowered the ex-factory price of construction steel 20-30 yuan/ton.
. Market price of four major varieties of steel
Construction steel: On September 21, the average price of 20mm three-level earthquake-resistant rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 4,090 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In the short term, it has been hotly discussed recently that the Federal Reserve is about to raise interest rates, and the market expectations are strong, which is one of the risk factors for increasing the price decline in the future market. In order to control the later risks, merchants are cautious in their operations, and exchange prices for volume for more, reducing the pressure brought by inventory on the future market.
Hot Rolled Rolled Roll: On September 21, the average price of 4.75mm hot rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Rolled Ro The futures market fell in the afternoon, the spot market followed the decline, and the overall transaction situation deviated. At present, the overall market supply and demand balance continues, and it is difficult for demand to recover significantly in the future. In addition, the recent expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the overall market merchants are more pessimistic, and it is difficult for prices to rise in the short term.
cold rolled plate rolls: On September 21, the average price of 1.0mm cold rolls in 24 major cities across the country was 4467 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The black futures market fluctuated weakly, and the spot price fell slightly, and the gap in demand compared with the same period last year. As the National Day approaches, merchants reported that terminal replenishment is not obvious, and demand has not improved significantly. Most terminal users mainly purchase on demand, and the overall transaction performance is average.In terms of mentality: Traders are not optimistic about the future market, and are currently mainly focusing on active shipments and inventory reduction. It is understood that some market inventory is at a high level, traders are under great financial pressure, and actual transaction prices have all dropped secretly.
medium and thick board: On September 21, the average price of 20mm general board in 24 major cities across the country was 4,201 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The market was weak and the market mentality remained weak. In addition, the recent weak downstream demand, the quotations of merchants in most regions fell slightly. In the downward market, downstream procurement was cautious, and the spot transactions of medium and thick boards throughout the day performed lightly. In terms of resources, with the adjustment of prices, the north-south price difference will be repaired, and batches of northern materials will be added in the future. Overall, considering the overall demand performance is poor.
. Market price of raw fuel
Imported ore: On September 21, the spot market price of Shandong imported iron ore rose slightly, with prices rising by 5-10 yuan/ton from the 20th, and the transaction was average. Specifically, the price was weak in the morning session today, and traders were still very enthusiastic about shipments, and most quotes were followed by the market; local steel mills had fewer inquiries and were not enthusiastic about restocking. As the market rebounded in the afternoon, traders' quotations increased, the market trading atmosphere was acceptable and the transaction volume was average.
Coke: On September 21, the coke market was temporarily running steadily. Some coke companies in the Wuhai market raised the price of metallurgical coke by 100 yuan/ton, and steel mills have no response yet. Coking companies have normal production starts at high and stable levels, and coke inventory in the factory is mostly at a medium and low level, and shipments are smooth and unimpeded. Coking coal prices have continued to rise recently, and the support for the spot price of raw materials has strengthened, affecting the increase of coke companies. In terms of steel mills, the stock of raw materials in steel mills is mostly medium or low, and it is still mainly based on on-demand procurement. The blast furnace in steel mills continues to resume production, iron and water production continues to rise, and the support for basic demand is strong.
Scrap steel: On September 21, the average price of scrap steel in 45 major markets across the country was 2,668 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Specifically, today's spot prices fluctuated and downward, electric furnace steel mills continued to lose money, and steel mills' procurement prices were slightly lowered. Steel billets have continued to fall in recent days, traders have unstable mentality, shipment sentiment has risen, and mainstream steel mills have remained high. The base has been shipped frequently recently, and the inventory is mainly cleaned up. The base is cautious about market expectations in late September. At present, traders cannot see expectations of steel mills rising.
scrap steel price adjustment information
My Steel Network News: September 21st, as of press time, a total of 73 steel mills have lowered the purchase price of scrap steel and 3 have raised it.
▎North China Region
September 21 [Old East China Sea in Tangshan, Hebei] 2 scrap steel price lowered 30 .
September 21 [Qian'an Xinda, Tangshan, Hebei Province, Rongxin ] lowered 30: Special grade 3090, first grade 3080, heavy A3010, heavy B2990, heavy C2940, medium B2990, crushed material special grade 2940, crushed material first grade 2900, steel bar cut head 3020, bean whisk 2980, high-quality cast iron 2580, horseshoe 2920, steel bar block 3000, flower iron briquet 3000, tax excluding.
September 21 [ Tangshan , Tang Baosheng, Hebei] lowered 40 , execution price: first-class crushing material 2850, second-class crushing material 2700, short ruler shear 1-2mm2700, 3-5mm2800, 6 or more 2830, 8 top 2850, galvanized wire tiles 2670, wire tiles 2600, cast iron radiator 2780, heavy waste 2830, steel bar head 3070, 08 aluminum flakes 2800, tax excluding tax.
September 21 [Zhengfeng, Tangshan, Hebei] part is downgraded by 30-50 : scrap steel 2-3 thickness 2770, 3-5 thickness 2820, 6 thickness 2850, 8 thickness 2870, small steel bar compression block 2840, new strip steel wire 2700, new cold plate compression block 2730, new wire 2630, galvanized small material 2760, first-class crushing material 2870, whole general sales 2420, pig iron radiator, bread iron 2800, engine body 2760, first-class shear 2750, second-class shear 1730, tax excluding tax.
September 21 [Hebei Tangshan Jinxi Co., Ltd. Steel] lowered 50, execution price: high-quality scrap steel beans 3090, high-quality scrap steel punching sheet 3080, high-quality scrap steel fine 3100, steel sheet first grade 3100, steel sheet second grade 3080, steel sheet third grade 3060, steel sheet fourth grade 3040, heavy waste category 1 3050, heavy waste second grade 3030, heavy waste third grade 3010, heavy waste four 2990, heavy waste fifth grade 2970, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
September 21 (second time) [Jinzhou, Tangshan, Hebei] is downgraded by 20, is downgraded by 50: 1-2 thickness 2700, 3-5 thickness 2800, 6 thickness 2830, 8 thickness 2850, steel bar head 2850, steel bar block 2850, new galvanized and cold plate small materials 2760-2800, 08 aluminum bulk flakes 2720-2760, special crushing material 2900, first-class crushing material 2850, pig iron radiator 2780, tax excluding.
September 21 [Long'an, Qinhuangdao, Hebei] lowered 30, after adjustment: track rail, round steel head, blank head, mold steel, train wheels, thick edge corners, flange 3000, heavy scrap 2940-2980, tower crane iron 2800, horseshoe 2900-2950, 20 thick I-shaped steel 2970, pure I-shaped steel 15 thick 2920-2960, I-shaped steel 10 thick 2850, short ruler channel steel small material 2920-2940, lead screw 2950-2960, tax excluding.
September 21 [Anfeng, Qinhuangdao, Hebei] lowered 30, after adjustment: round steel head, four-thick beans 3070, mold steel 050, large channel steel 2950, tower crane beam 2850, horse tellurium iron 2950, rustless small stator rotor 2770 yuan, rust-free large stator 2920, cold plate small material 2890, triangular silicon steel sheet 2890 iron bean 3010, steel head quality 3070, tax-excluding.
September 21 [Hongxing, Qinhuangdao, Hebei] down-regulated 30, after adjustment: fine steel 3050, high-quality steel 3030, heavy waste A2970, heavy waste B2900, silicon steel sheet 2870, cold plate crusher B2870, cold plate crusher A2890, silicon steel sheet crusher 2870 (balloon), silicon steel sheet crusher 2710 (sheet-shaped), fine steel head 3050 Mainstream steel head 3030 Shredded steel bar head 2990, large steel shavings 2570-2590, small steel shavings 2490-2510, general sales first-class 2420-2440, general sales second-class 2320-2370, excluding tax.
September 21 [Hebei Canggang Group] lowered 30, now implement: 1-2 thick 2690, 2-3 thick scrap steel 2740, 3-5 thick scrap steel 2800, 6 thick scrap steel 2830, small steel bar compression block 2830, flange chip 2700, steel planing chip 2540, first-class crushing material 2840, bread iron 2840, radiator 2660, tax excluding.
September 21 [Hebei Handan Xinhui ] lowered 30, execution price: steel bar head 2890, general waste 2870, medium waste 2840, new small material 2810, small waste 2790, rack pipe 2790, engine body 2740, small steel planing chip 2570; 08 aluminum bulk flake 2730, crushing first level 2850, crushing second level 2820, crushing third level 2700, excluding tax.
September 21 [Hebei Shijiazhuang Hegang Shigang] scrap steel adjustment, see the price list for specific purposes: Inlet furnace fine material: Heavy duty ≥20mm3020 Heavy duty ≥15mm3020 Heavy duty ≥10mm3020 Heavy duty ≥6mm3020, Medium size ≥3mm2912, Small size ≥1mm2840, Light and thin material ≤1mm2608; Processed wool material: Heavy duty ≥6mm2919, Medium size ≥3mm2848, excluding tax.
September 21 [Hebei Xingtai Delong] Scrap steel purchase price: heavy scrap 3 category 2849, heavy scrap 5 category 2919, heavy scrap 6 category 2946, heavy scrap 7 category 2974, automobile beam 2919, reinforcement block 2947, side wire block/diode block 2857, flower iron block 2946, silicon steel sheet block 2883, excluding tax.
September 21st from 17:00 (secondary) [Shanxi Jingang] 4 scrap steel all material types were reduced by 30, and cumulatively lowered by 60 .
September 21 [Zhongsheng, Linfen, Shanxi] lowered 20 , execution price: special grade 15 thickness or more 2960, first grade material 2930, second grade material 6 thickness or more 2870, first grade steel bar head first grade 2890, all color scrap material 10 thickness or more 2980, pure steel bar block 2860, small steel bar head 2940, tax excluding.
September 21 [Shanxi New Kingsoft] lowered 20, execution price: 16 thick special material 2980, 10 thick special material 2950, first-class material 2870, 10 thick scraps 2980, 6 thick scraps 2920, 10 thick horseshoe 2980, 6 thick horseshoe 2960, 3-6 thick horseshoe 2940, steel bar particles, bean pulverization 2980, tax excluding.
2 September 21st [Mingfu, Jishan, Shanxi] is downgraded by 20 . After adjustment: heavy waste first level 2960, heavy waste second level 2910, medium waste first level 2860, medium waste second level 2810, medium waste third level 2760, low scrap second level 2960, steel bar head first level 2950, steel bar head second level 2880, steel bar head first level 2950, excluding tax.
September 21 [Shanxi Jinnan Steel (Liheng)] lowered 20, execution price: track 3010, steel bar head 2990, high-quality scrap steel 3010, 15mm scrap steel 2990, 10mm scrap steel 2950, steel bar block 2930, 6-8mm scrap steel 2870, castings 2810, crushed material (pile specific gravity ≥1.7) 2550, crushed material (pile specific gravity ≥1.4) 2450, excluding tax.
September 21 [Shanxi Jianbang] lowered 30, after adjustment: special grade (15) 2960, heavy one (10) 2920, oil 2890, heavy two (6) 2860, oil 2830, heavy three (4) 2610, high quality scrap iron 2740, Gaomi first (6) 3040, high-definition second (4) 2900, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
September 21 [Shanxi Antai Steel Factory] lowered 50 , after adjustment: heavy scrap steel Class A 2850, heavy scrap steel Class B 2820 , Heavy Duty Scrap Steel C Class 2790, Rebar Head A2950, Rebar Head B2780, Track Rail 2860, Steel Plate Scrap Material 2850, Disassembled Car Oil-containing Scrap Steel A2840, Disassembled Car Oil-containing Scrap Steel B2770, Disassembled Car Oil-free Scrap Steel 2790, Disassembled Car High-quality Scrap Steel 2840, Shear Material 2460, High-quality Heavy Scrap Scrap 2880, Dry Cleaner Generation 2840, Reinforced Bar Block B2790, Excluding Tax.
September 21 [Shanxi Gaoyi] lowered 70. After adjustment: steel bar particles 2980, punch material 2980, high-quality heavy waste (20mm) 2970, special heavy waste (14mm) 2950, heavy waste first level (10mm) 2910, heavy waste second level (8mm) 2870, tax excluding.
September 22 [Tianjin Dongli Tiangang] All scrap steel prices in the production down-reduced , based on the time of recovery.
September 22 [Tianjin Tiangang United] All scrap steel prices in the production down-reduced . Based on the peeling time, the execution price: 1. Rebar block: 2950, 2. Flower iron block: 2915 more than 2 thick, 2915, 3. Side wire block: 1 thick, 2905, 4. Packing belt block: 1 thick, 2905, 5. Iron wire block: Industrial wire 2700, 6. Rebar head: 3000, excluding tax.
:00 [Tianjin Ronggang] downgrades 20-30 : high-quality first-class 2980, high-quality second-class 2970, high-quality third-class 2950, steel sheet material second-class 2960, steel sheet material third-class 2940, iron pin 2500, steel bar cutter 3075, steel plate roller and shear material 3080, tax excluding.
▎East China
September 22 [Jiangsu Lianyungang Yaxin] lowered 20 : 1. Steel sheet material, mold steel, price 2950; 2. 12 mm thick high-quality heavy waste A, price 2920; 3. 6 mm thick heavy waste B, price 2830, 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 12 mm thick high-quality heavy waste A, price 2920; 2. 12 mm thick heavy waste B, price 2830;
September 21 [Jiangsu Lianyungang Xingxin] is reduced by 40, execution price: steel plate molds are collected at a maximum of 2960, heavy wastes above 10 thicknesses are collected at a maximum of 2930, high-quality heavy wastes above 8 thicknesses are collected at a maximum of 2900, and heavy wastes above 6 thicknesses are collected at a maximum of 2860. 4 thick heavy wastes are collected at a maximum of 2760, and 3 thicker new wastes are collected at a maximum of 2660, excluding taxes, and 3 thicker light wastes are rejected. Specifications require 60*60, and the over-spec is deducted from RMB 100/ton. Unit: RMB/ton.
September 21 [Jiangsu Yancheng Dafeng Lianxin] lowered 20, after adjustment, the strike price: 8 thick 2980, heavy 10 thick 2950, heavy 2800, forging material 2830, new hot and hot rolling punch stops collection, excluding tax.
September 21 [Jiangsu Zhenjiang Hongtai] lowered 20, and the after-adjustment strike price: new steel sheet material 2920, high-weight, steel head 2890, horseshoe 2850, steel bar block 2820, cold rolling, hot rolling, and punching 2830, silicon steel sheet 2780, heavy scrap 2830, crushing material 2540-2780, shearing material 2690-2720, steel shavings 2560-2610, tax excluding.
September 21 [Jiangsu Yangzhou China Airlines] lowered 30, execution price: new steel sheet material 2880, excellent weight 2850, horseshoe 2840, steel bar head 2810, pig iron 740-2790, heavy waste 2740-2790, fine furnace material 660-2700, wire rope 2270, crushed steel shavings 2520-2600, crushed CNC shavings 2470-2520, crushed ordinary shavings 2420-2470, excluding tax.
September 21 [Jiangsu Wuxi New Three Continents] lowered 30-40: steel sheet material 3220, mold steel 3170, horseshoe 3110-3170, heavy scrap first-level 3110-23060, steel bar cut head 3220, tax included 13%.
September 22 [Shandong Minyuan] downgrade 20: punch 3100-3120, punch steel pipe head mixed assembly 3080, steel bar cutting head, steel pipe head, mold steel, blank head, round steel head 3120, steel sheet material above 8 thickness 3120, steel sheet material above 6 thickness 3090, rough edge 3020, excellent weight 3030-3090, heavy scrap 8 thickness 3000, heavy scrap 6 thickness 2970, crushed shear material 2670, containing 3% VAT. Unit: RMB/ton.
September 21 [Shandong Dezhou Jinguan (Lihui)] lowered 30 , after adjustment, steel bar pelletization 2970, new sheet material above 6mm 2870, heavy scrap 5-6 thick 2850, medium scrap 3-4 thick 2800-2830, shock absorbing plate 2820, shearing material and agricultural iron 2650-2740, iron chip 2620, chip block 2670, machine iron 2790, first-class crushing material 2830, second-class crushing material 2620, tax excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
September 21 [ Shandong Luli Steel ] part was lowered by 30, execution price: new material 1-3070, new material 2-2970, vehicle rear axle 3070, heavy waste 3050, medium waste 2-2970, general material 2850, body 2760, special crushing material 2850, long steel pin 2690, new material briquetting (including 08 aluminum briquetting) 2690, steel pin briquetting 2430, side wire briquetting 2650, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
September 21 [Jiangxi Taixin] lowered 30 : Heavy waste 1 2770, heavy waste 2 2740, medium waste 2700, small waste 2520-2620, general material 2050-2200, packaging material 2110-2690, steel planer 2560, CNC shavings 2510, ordinary shavings 2440, steel bar cutting and pelleting stop collection, pig iron 810-2840, tax excluding.
September 22 [Anhui Huainan Hongtai] lowered 30: steel bar cut granules 2890, excellent weight 2820, cold rolled punched silicon steel sheet 2730, heavy scrap 2710-2750, medium scrap 2630-2680, pig iron coke steel 2790, small scrap 2550, wire rope miscellaneous scrap 2290-2390, wood shavings 2290-2390, tax excluding.
September 21 [Anhui Changjiang Steel Company] lowered 40-50 : steel bar cutter and punch 3260, excellent weight 3300, excellent weight 3280, stamping material 3260, stamping material 3220, industrial block 3250, heavy waste 3260, fine material 3240, medium waste 3220, machine-generated 3210, shear material 3200, shear small waste type 3130, shear small waste type 3030, first grade steel shavings 2920, first grade crushing material 3040, tax included.
September 21 [Fujian Xinwuhang] All scrap steel unified downgrade 20 , unit: yuan/ton.
September 21 [Fujian Qingtuodingxin] loose shavings, shavings tiles, bearing wire tiles, steel shavings are reduced by 90, daily galvanized tiles are reduced by 60, and other material types are reduced by 40 . The specific price list shall be subject to the price list, and the volume is to be approved.
September 21 [Fujian Yixin] increased by 20 : The price of the furnace material with tax is 3140, the price of the refined material with tax is 3260, the price of the punch with tax is 3260, and the price of the forging material with tax is 3200, unit: yuan/ton.
▎Central Huazhong area
September 22[Hubei Daye Huaxin]down 20: Level 1 heavy waste 2940, Level 2 heavy waste 2890, Level 3 heavy waste 2840, Level 1 heavy waste 12 thick 2900, Level 2 8 thick 2850, Level 3 heavy waste 2800, Mechanical pig iron 2800, Rebar cutting head 2960, Crushing material crushing material first punch second punch stop collection, Rebar 2680, Forging material 2680, Excluding tax.
September 21 [Hubei Daye Huaxin] downgrade 20 : first-level heavy waste 2960, second-level heavy waste 2910, third-level heavy waste 2860, first-level heavy waste 12 thick 2920, second-level 8 thick 2870, third-level heavy waste 2820, mechanical pig iron 2820, steel bar cut head 2980, crushing material crushing material first-level punch second-level punch stop collection, steel bar 2700, forging material 2700, tax excluding.
September 21st from 18:00 [Henan Qinyang Hongda Steel Group] Iron solder price remains unchanged, others are adjusted 30, Execution price: New steel sheet material is 6 thick and above 2850, 3-5 thick and above 2800, heavy scrap is 8 thick and above 2820, heavy scrap is 6-8 thick and above 2770, first-class material 2720, second-class material 2640, third-class material 2590, iron sheet material 2490, first-class pig iron steel 2820, second-class pig iron steel parts 2770, crushed pin 2610, long-term sales 2540, excluding tax.
September 21 [Henan Anyang Yaxin] lowered 20: steel plate 10 thickness or more, 6 thickness or more 2980; machine pig iron 2920; steel bar cut head 2990; special grade 16 thickness or more 3010, heavy A10 thickness or more 2980, heavy B6 thickness or more 2930, messed steel bar cluster 2880, excluding tax.
September 21 [Henan Jiyuan Steel] lowered 30, execution price: special first-class scrap steel 3310, special second-class scrap steel 3270, heavy first-class 3240, heavy second-class 3210, heavy third-class 3180, medium-sized 3040, including 13% VAT acceptance price.
▎ South China
September 22 [Guangdong Yangchun New Steel] till the next price adjustment, the price of each variety is reduced by 20 , unit: yuan/ton.
September 21 [Guangdong Shaogang] scrap steel part is increased by 20 , unit: yuan/ton.
September 21 [Guangdong Heyuan Zhongxin Huafeng Steel] lowered 20 : heavy waste 2810, air cutting material 2780, medium cutting 2610. Self-pickup, excluding tax, note that it is prohibited to carry seals and other dangerous goods.
September 21 [Guangdong Heyuan Zhongxin Huafeng Steel] lowered 20 : heavy waste 2810, air cutting material 2780, medium cutting 2610. Self-pickup, excluding tax, note that it is prohibited to carry seals and other dangerous goods.
September 21 [Guangdong Heyuan Longchuan Hanghui Steel Industry] lowered 20 : pig iron heavy scrap 2770-2800, industrial punching scrap 2750-2780, air cutting material (60 cm) 2740-2770. Tax excluded, please note that it is prohibited to carry seals and other dangerous goods.
September 21 [Guangdong Heyuan Derun Steel] lowered 20 : Rebar cutting 2950, scrap material, new steel sheet material 2950; pure steel head, straight steel bar 2930; mold steel, material head round steel, rail steel, train wheel 2950; silicon steel sheet stop collecting; cold rolling, hot rolling, crushed punch 2880; excellent weight 2930; forging material and horseshoe 2950; heavy scrap 2880; mechanical cast iron, high-carbon steel , cast steel parts, raw and cooked mixed assembly 2880; thick shear 2830, excluding tax.
September 21 [Guangdong Jiangmen Baofeng] lowered 20 : high-weight, steel head 2810, pure steel bar pressure 2810, messy steel bar 2770-2800, heavy scrap 2780, hard steel and pig iron 2780, cold rolled punch 2760-2790, cold rolled punch 2740-2760, medium shear 2720, first-class steel chip 2510, ordinary granules 2410-2470, general material 2290-2390, tax excluding.
September 21 [Guangdong Jinshenglan] lowered 20 : Rebar cutting and pelleting stops, pure steel bar head 2970, reinforcement blocks stops collecting, all of which are scraps 2970 , forged material 2970, high-heavy scrap steel 2970, heavy scrap one 2920-2940, heavy scrap two 2890, medium scrap 2790-2840, shearing material 2690-2740, punch 2940, all-color car material 2840-2890, pig iron 2880-2930, steel shavings and CNC 2530-2580, ordinary shavings and debris stop collecting, crushed material 2840-2860, excluding tax.
September 21 [Guangdong Qingyuan Shengli] lowered 20 : After adjustment mold 2860, scrap material 2840, excellent weight 2840, heavy scrap 2790, steel head 2840, cast iron hard steel 2780-2810, punching scrap material 2700-2740, thick material 2750, middle shear 2670, small shear temporarily stopped collecting, gravel 2490-2540, tax excluding.
September 21 [Guangdong Heping County Guangdong Shengang] lowered 20 : 5-6 centimeters heavy waste 2780, the specifications require a length and width of less than 50 cm. It is prohibited to carry sealed items. All wire ropes are subject to inspection by the company on site, excluding tax.
September 21 [Guangdong Shaoguan Yueshao] lowered 20 : Rebar cutting and pelleting stop collecting; heavy scrap 2780, new corner 2810, pig iron 2780, division 2700-2750, industrial crushed material 2700-2750, thick shearing material 2650, cutting material 2600, cutting 2-2450, cutting 3 stop collecting, tinplate 370-2450, granules 2110-2350, tax excluding.
September 22 [Guangxi Guigang Steel] lowered 20 : 2920 cast iron, cast steel parts, mechanical parts, 2860 heavy scrap steel, 2940 steel bars; 2760 grade shearing material, 2700 grade shearing material, 2650 of the vehicle mess, 2100 of the light and thin materials, 2480 of the pure steel bars, and the purchase of steel bars is suspended, excluding tax.
September 21 [Guangdong Dingxing Regeneration] lowered 30 : scraps, molds 2840, steel bar pressure and scraps 2810, pure steel bar head 2830, heavy scrap, pig iron, hard steel 2810, divided material and large material 2780, medium-thick shear 2750, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton.
September 21 [Guangxi Guigang Steel] first cut of scrap steel is increased by 30 , others remain unchanged: current cast iron, cast steel parts, mechanical parts 2940, heavy scrap steel 2880, steel bar block 2960; first-level shear material 2780, second-level shear material 2720, vehicle messed steel bars 2670, light and thin materials 2120, pure steel bar head 2500, steel bar particles are suspended for purchase, excluding tax.
September 21 [Guilin Pinggang, Guangxi] lowered 20 , heavy waste 2840, excluding tax, the specific price list shall prevail.
September 21 [Guangxi Guixin] lowered 20 : heavy waste 2850, excellent weight 2880, the specific goods shall prevail, tax is not included in the factory.
September 21 [Hengxian, Nanning, Guangxi] lowered 20 : cast iron cast steel 2870, heavy scrap 2820, thick shear 2770, ordinary shear material 2720, crushed iron pin 2140, tax excluding.
September 21st from 14:00 [Guangxi Wuzhou Yima] lowered 20 : steel bar granules 2930; new steel sheet material 2930; mold steel 2930; hot rolled punch, cold rolled punch, automobile punch sheet 2920; silicon steel sheet 2920; motor shell and machine pig iron 2890; automobile wheel hub 2890, old flange and steel head 2890; car front and rear axles 2880; hot and cold rolled punch sheet 2870; air cutting material 2860; shear material 2830; tax excluding.
September 21 [Guangxi Xinmao Recycling Resources Recycling Co., Ltd.] Pig iron, heavy scrap, fine scissors, steel bar briquettes, steel bar pellets, etc. are reduced by 20: pig iron 2890, heavy scrap 2840, first-level steel bar pellets 3030, secondary steel bar pellets 3010, steel bar briquettes up to 2950, fine scissors 2700, general scissors are stopped, excluding tax.
September 21 [ Guangxi Hezhou Special Steel] lowered 30 : excellent weight 2800, pig iron hard steel 2800, mold scraps 2800, steel bar head 2800, heavy scraps 2800, medium and thick shears 2770, medium and thick material 2720, thin shears stop collecting, punching pieces 2740, crushed materials 2740, gravel 2390-2470, regular materials stop collecting, specific prices are subject to the manufacturer's price list, excluding tax.
▎Southwest Region
September 22 [Yunnan Yuxi Xianfu] lowered 50 . After adjustment: it is best to scrap steel 2800, and the steel bar particles are 2900, excluding tax.
September 21 [Yunnan Yuxi Xianfu] Scrap steel purchase price: the best scrap steel is 2850, the steel bar particles are 2950, excluding tax.
September 21 [Yunnan Yuxi Huigang] lowered 50 : 2950 steel bar cut head, preferably 2850 heavy scrap. Tax excluding.
September 21 [Yuxi Yukun, Yunnan] down-regulated 50 : Rebar cutting head 2950, preferably 2850 heavy waste. Tax excluding.
September 21 [Yunnan Muguang Scrap Steel Company] lowered 50 , after adjustment: steel bar head 2900. Clean heavy scrap steel, mechanical iron size is specified 60cmx60cm, grade 1 iron 2800. Tax excluding.
September 21 [Yunnan Tiangao (Voledi Metal Material)] down-regulated 30 : primary material 2890, secondary material 2850, third-grade material 2780, light and thin material 2410.
September 21 [Guizhou Xingyi Juxin] 2 scrap steel purchase price lowered 20 , depending on the price. Tax excluding.
September 21 [Sichuan Dugang] lowered 20 : 8 thick 2790, the specific price list shall prevail.
September 21 [Xinyang, Sichuan Luzhou] down-regulated 20 : pig iron, steel parts 2730-2770, excellent weight 6 thick or more 2810, medium waste (3-4 thick) 2690-2730, light waste (1-2 thick) 2530-2630, new material, light material hot-rolled plate 2810. New steel parts material head 2840, new plate edges above 4 thickness 2860, iron filings 2530-2580, steel bar particles 2860, pure steel bar joints above 12 2840, light and thin broken particles 2530, broken particles above 1 thickness 2730.
September 21 [Sichuan Mianzhu Desheng Vanadium Titanium] Scrap steel purchase price lowered 30 , the specific price list shall prevail.
:00 [Sichuan Leshan Gangchen] lowered 30 : high-heavy waste 2790, heavy waste 2740, medium waste 2690, light waste 2610, pig iron 2630, specific price list shall prevail.
September 21 [Sichuan Xinquan Steel (formerly Mianzhu Jinquan Steel)] lowered 30: pig iron 2710, pure steel bar head 12mm, excellent heavy waste above 10mm 2760-2790, heavy waste above 6-8mm 2730-2760, medium waste 4-6mm 2650-2710, light waste 2-4mm 2550-2650, 1-2mm stop collecting. The processing length above is less than 50 cm.
September 21 [Sichuan Meiya Steel] downgrade 30 : special material 2840, heavy waste 2780, medium waste 2730, light waste 2630, cutting material 2500, iron filing 2500, crushed raw materials 2230-2430. False, seals, flammable and explosive products are strictly prohibited, otherwise severe penalties will be imposed.
September 21 [Sichuan Ya'an Anshan Steel] downgrade 30: preheating and refining materials, excellent weight 2810-2840, heavy waste 2750-2780, medium waste 2670-2720, light waste 2280-2600, color steel tiles 2080-2180, pure steel parts 2780, pure pig iron 2750, engine tooth box 2670, large thick 2600, colored steel tiles 2080-2180, pure steel parts 2780, pure pig iron 2750, engine tooth box 2670, large thick 260 0, medium-coarse 2500, shaving block 2580, scrambled steel bars 2790, crushed material, electric consultation
September 21, [Chongqing Changshou Yonghang Steel] down 30 : more than 8 heavy scrap. Rebar head 2790 2. (6-8) Thick shear material 2740 3. (4-6) Thick shear material 2640 2690 4. (2-3) Thick shear material 2520-2570. Gross material: 2690 trough angle, 2690 bridge formwork, 2560 factory goods, 2380 medium and upper medium, 2310 medium and 2510 car chips. Note: No chunks that cannot be seen through will be collected, and no chunks of car with oil will be accepted. Plastic bags, floor ash, seals, tires, flammable and explosive dangerous goods in the goods are strictly prohibited and punished severely once discovered.
September 21 [Chongqing Zuhang Steel Company] lowered 30: (6-8 thick) 2680-2730, (4-6 thick) 2630-2680, (2-3 thick) 2520-2570, front and rear axles of the large car. The engine has been removed, the car shell is about 2220, medium-middle-upper-market 2270-2320, can-color steel tiles 1800-1900, car chips 2480. Note: The company receives goods normally, and no chunks that cannot be seen through will be collected, and no chunks will be accepted with oil. It is strictly forbidden to impose severe penalties on seals, tires, flammable and explosive dangerous goods when found.
▎Northwest Region
September 21-25 [Shaanxi Longmen] Steel scrap steel price: 15mm special grade 2910, 10mm first grade 2850, second grade 8mm2780, first grade 2800, tax excluding.
▎Northeast Region
September 22 [Liaoning Anshan Yuanxin] Execution price: 0.5-1 thick 2260- 2340, 1-2 thick 2380-2410, (pure) 6-8 thick 2670-2720, (pure) 4-6 thick 2640-2670, (pure) 3-5 thick 2580-2620, (pure) 2-4 thick 2530-2570, 1-3 thick 2480-2530, pig iron steel parts 2600-2660, wire rope 2380-2430, pure wire small block 2460-2520, excluding tax, unit: yuan/ton. (China Steel Network, My Steel Network)
. Forecast: Steel prices need...
Tomorrow's steel price forecast
The Fed's interest rate hike is imminent, and the global attention is coming. Almost all market participants are holding their breath waiting for the arrival of this moment. In the current situation, what should the steel price tomorrow go? Let's continue to look down...
What are the influencing factors in the steel market?
September 5 provinces and cities carried out a large-scale inspection on mine production safety
In order to ensure safety and stability during the 20th period, from September 16 to 23, the first comprehensive inspection team of the State Mining Safety Supervision Bureau conducted a comprehensive inspection of mine production safety work in Shanxi Province. In accordance with the content and requirements of the inspection, the inspection team will use 8 days to supervise and inspect Jinzhong City, Xinzhou City and Linfen City. The inspection team requires that Shanxi should also organize supervision and inspection in other regions.
analysts' opinion: Safety inspections may lead to a decrease in output, and a decline in supply will increase costs, thereby supporting medium and short-term steel prices.
New measures are introduced for the maintenance of the building: the certificate will be issued as soon as the delivery of the house
In order to further solve the problematic real estate projects, Zhengzhou City will fully implement the "issuance of the certificate as soon as the delivery of the house" project. After the confirmed suspension of work in the city is restarted, it will ensure that when the house is delivered, buyers who have complete information to apply for real estate registration can get the real estate certificate on the same day.
analysts' opinion: This move is expected to accelerate the recovery of market confidence, accelerate the return of real estate funds by stimulating demand, which will help drive a new round of investment and construction of real estate, and thus benefit building materials.
iron ore price fluctuated downward
On September 21, according to today's iron ore information, the landed price of imported 65% powder ore was US$108.05/ton, down 0.52 from the previous trading day; the landed price of imported 62% powder ore was US$96.44/ton, down 0.48 from the previous trading day; the price of domestic 65% iron concentrate was 895.57 yuan/ton, down 0.06 from the previous trading day; the price of domestic 62% iron concentrate was 801.38 yuan/ton, down 0.05 from the previous trading day.
analysts' opinion: The price of iron ore has fallen, and the support for steel prices from the cost side has weakened, which is negative for medium and short-term steel prices.
Market price:
According to the data of the China Steel Network APP,
Statistics Bureau: The output of excavators in August was 21,039, and the growth rate turned positive for the first time this year
The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the output of excavators in August 2022 was 21,039, an increase of 10% year-on-year. The cumulative output from January to August was 208,417 units, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% (25.6% year-on-year decrease from January to July). In August, the year-on-year growth rate of excavator production in my country turned positive for the first time this year.
More places have lowered the down payment ratio of second homes
As of September 20, Tianjin, Hainan, Hebei and other places have successively adjusted the down payment ratio of second home loans to 40%. In addition to reducing the down payment ratio, there is also an innovative exploration of "security transfer" in second-hand housing purchase and sale.
China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: The passenger car market remains vibrant in August
According to statistical analysis by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in August 2022, the passenger car market remained vibrant, and sales continued the rapid growth momentum year-on-year.
s spot market
rebar: slightly increased
s market, with the arrival of the traditional peak season, market demand may increase compared with before, forming a certain support for spot. In terms of mentality, as the macro positive news continues to release, merchants' arrival volume has increased and their confidence has increased. Overall, it is expected that the price of rebar may rise slightly tomorrow.
Hot coil: narrow adjustment
From the current market performance, as the National Day holiday approaches, the market demand performance is not as expected by merchants for the time being, and downstream purchases are all on demand. Traders are also more cautious in their current operating mode, mainly shipping, appropriately reducing inventory and risk. It is expected that the price of hot coils will be adjusted narrowly tomorrow.
midboard: narrow range fluctuations
market transactions are weak, the atmosphere is cold, and the overall transaction situation is not good. Some traders loosen their quotes to promote shipments. Considering that the current inventory pressure of merchants is still acceptable, the midboard market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range tomorrow.
strip steel: narrowly increase
Currently, the market resources are supplemented, but because some resources have been sold at a low price in advance, spot resources are still low. However, as negative news came out, the strip steel market price may rebound slightly, but the space is limited. In summary, it is expected that the price of strip steel will rise narrowly tomorrow.
Profile: Steady sorting
Due to the tightening of some resources, traders mainly come in and out quickly, and their willingness to stock up is poor. The demand for finished materials is lower than expected, and the construction site funds are in place, so the progress of the project is slow. As prices fluctuate downward, the market trading atmosphere is deserted, and the actual transaction price discounts have been increased. It is expected that the price of the model will be consolidated steadily in the short term.
Pipes: Run firmly
Currently, the enthusiasm for downstream and terminal procurement has slowed down. Due to the epidemic control in some regions, the market is cautious. Traders are not optimistic about the future market, but considering that under cost support, it is expected that the price of pipes will run firmly tomorrow.
raw material market
Steel billet: Weak adjustment
Today's black series spirals remain green and fluctuated, traders' mentality is pessimistic. Affected by factors such as the domestic epidemic and economic environment, terminal demand is difficult to improve, and the market is more bearish, so it is expected that the price of steel billets will be adjusted weakly tomorrow.
Iron ore: weakening and running
2 production is mostly stopped. Some steel companies are inquiring about goods from the market. The price of iron fine powder has been difficult to buy raw materials recently, and most of the ore is price-oriented and reluctant to sell. However, the trade is cautious in accepting goods with profit margins, and the overall transaction is average. Therefore, it is expected that the mineral prices will mostly weaken tomorrow.
Coke: Keep running steadily
steel mill blast furnace resumes production, iron and water production continues to increase, and the demand for coke is still there, but considering that the steel market performance has weakened, the profitability of steel mills has declined again, and coke is mainly purchased on demand. It is expected that the coke market will remain stable tomorrow.
Scrap steel: narrow adjustment
From the current situation, the electric furnace has been in a loss situation again for a while, and some have plans to stop production, while the transaction of finished steel is still not ideal. The entire market is in a stalemate. In summary, scrap steel is expected to be adjusted narrowly tomorrow.
Pig iron: Main stability adjustment
At present, the game between Jiao Steel is still continuing, and the ore is slightly rising. The iron plant still has the willingness to support the price and is unwilling to sell it at a low price. However, downstream companies have limited demand, insufficient procurement motivation, and poor demand for pig iron. Overall, there is a dilemma between rising and falling raw material costs, and the market is mainly waiting and watching. It is expected that the pig iron market owners will stabilize the adjustment tomorrow.
comprehensive suggestions comprehensively, the spot price has been relatively weak recently, coupled with the upcoming Fed interest rate hikes that exceed expectations, further exacerbating market risks. However, some traders believe that before the "Twenty Top 20", macro policies will give the market a certain confidence, demand performance is expected to improve, and may have some support for spot prices. In summary, it is expected that the price of steel may rise slightly tomorrow. Amplitude 10-20. operation suggestions: It is recommended that merchants quickly enter and exit, and keep inventory running low.
. Four major pressures have caused the peak season of steel market to fail
A leaf knows autumn, and the cold air in the steel market has swept over! As the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike approaches, the Singapore iron ore swap index has been falling continuously. As of the close of September 20, it closed at US$95.65/ton (approximately RMB 670.95/ton). On Tuesday, the main iron ore futures contract price of Dalian Futures Exchange closed at $696, about 4% higher than the Singapore futures market quotation.
This shows that international capital is more vigilant about the threat of global economic recession after the Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate hikes. You should know that the last round of US currency tightening cycle was between 2013 and 2015, when iron ore prices in the international market fell below US$40/ton, and the domestic spot price of rebar fell to 1,800 yuan/ton.
html Since mid-September, the trading volume of the steel market has dropped by about 5% compared with the first half of the month, down by about 10% compared with the previous month and down by about 30% compared with the same period last year, which is a decline all the way. The output data of major mechanical equipment in the machinery industry released by the National Bureau of Statistics can be described as the four words "cold" and has never seen such a sluggish data since 2008.
From January to August this year, the output of engines, machine tools and excavators decreased by more than 10% compared with the same period last year. Among them, the output of excavators decreased by 22.4% year-on-year and the output of engines decreased by 16.2%. This shows the reason why the price trends of industrial steel such as hot-rolled coils, cold-rolled coils, and medium-thick plates have been even worse than rebar this year. Why was the supply of construction steel in the steel market a little short of a while ago, but the supply of industrial steel was oversupply?
Since this year, both construction steel and industrial steel have also faced the dilemma of insufficient demand. However, most of the manufacturers of construction steel are private steel enterprises, and they will not stop production if they have no money to make money; the production of industrial steel is concentrated in state-owned enterprises, and they bear too much social responsibilities and cannot stop production easily. This is the answer to the above question.
Currently, judging from the two major indicators of housing start-up rate and land purchase amount, the real estate industry is still far from the day of recovery. However, the secondary impact of the decline in the real estate industry is only the beginning. It is difficult to change the trend of gradual decline in steel demand this year, such as gold, three, silver and four, or gold, September and October. I believe everyone has a deep understanding of it this year. Ren Qingping, chairman of Shanghai Wubo Steel Structure Materials Co., Ltd., believes that the current steel market is facing four major pressures, and the market's expectations for "Golden September and Silver October" may be disappointed. It is recommended that steel traders do not expect too much of the "Silver October" market.
Pressure 1: The strength of "steel needs" gradually weakens Ren Qingping introduced that since the "Golden September", the steel market has generally shown the characteristics of "peak season is not prosperous", and steel prices fluctuate and fluctuate, and rise and fall. Since September, the intensity of effective demand for downstream terminals has been lower than expected and has gradually weakened. "One of the main reasons is that the domestic epidemic is spreading at multiple points, and localities have begun to raise the level of epidemic prevention and control, which has led to the curbing of the release of downstream demand." Ren Qingping believes. From the perspective of the real estate industry, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from January to August this year, the national real estate development investment reached 908.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%; the construction area of houses reached 868.649 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%; the sales area of commercial housing reached 878.9 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23%; the funds in place for real estate development enterprises reached 100.81.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25%.The "Real Estate Blue Book 2022" released by industry institutions predicts that in 2022, the national real estate market will show the characteristics of "salary area growth rate declines, a slight increase in average sales price, a continuous decline in newly started construction area, and a significant decline in investment growth rate." Some market insiders predict that the peak of domestic steel demand this year has passed. Considering the poor production and sales and investment situation of the downstream steel industry, the strength of "steel demand" will continue to weaken in the later period. Ren Qingping said that since the second half of 2021, the growth rate of real estate development investment has gradually declined, and key data such as newly started housing construction area, land purchase area, and house sales area have performed poorly. It is expected that in the second half of 2022, real estate demand will always be at a low level. The International Steel Association also stated in the Global Short-term Steel Demand Forecast Report that China's steel demand will experience negative growth this year. Ren Qingping believes that the strength of the real estate industry's demand for steel this year is obviously weak, and there is insufficient momentum to support the rise in steel prices, and it will take some time for downstream terminal demand to recover.
Pressure 2: There is uncertainty in steel supply Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in May this year, my country's crude steel production reached 96.61 million tons, the second highest level in the same period in history; iron and water production reached 80.49 million tons, setting a historical high. Afterwards, due to the continued decline in steel prices, steel companies' profits shrank significantly, and some steel companies even suffered losses. Affected by this, many steel companies have taken the initiative to limit production and reduce production, resulting in a decline in steel production. "After entering August, the steel market has improved slightly, the decline in steel prices slowed down, and the prices of some varieties rebounded, and the overall profitability of steel companies improved compared with July." Ren Qingping said, "As steel prices gradually rebounded, the profits of steel companies rebounded, driving the increase in crude steel production." Statistics of the China Steel Industry Association show that in early September, the average daily crude steel production of key steel companies reached 2.0982 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.26%; the average daily production of pig iron reached 1.9327 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.32%; the average daily production of steel reached 2.0268 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.03%. "At present, steel supply is showing a rebound momentum on a month-on-month and year-on-year basis." Ren Qingping predicts that the continued implementation of the policy of reducing crude steel production, major activities, and environmental protection production restrictions in autumn and winter will affect the later steel supply, making it uncertain. "
Pressure 3: The cost pressure of steel is still high Recently, the prices of steel raw fuels such as iron ore, coke, scrap steel have risen and fallen. As of September 16, the price of iron ore in Rizhao, Shandong was quoting 750 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton since early September; the price of coke in Tangshan, Hebei was quoting 2550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton since early September; the price of scrap steel in Tangshan, Hebei was quoting 2800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton since early September. Ren Qingping said that since the price of steel raw fuel continues to be at a high level, steel companies are When determining the ex-factory price of steel, he has a strong willingness to uphold the price. The market sales price of steel is "inverted" with the ex-factory price of steel and becomes the norm, which brings great difficulties to steel traders' stable operations.
Pressure 4: The phenomenon of excessive financialization of steel Ren Qingping specifically proposed that the current excessive financialization of steel has a great impact on the market conditions, which should attract the high attention of all parties in the steel industry chain and supply chain. "Now, judging the trend of steel prices is not about supply and demand, but about futures. This is the result of excessive financialization of steel. "Ren Qingping proposed, "At present, there is a phenomenon worth pondering in the steel market: the upper, middle and lower reaches are all keeping a close eye on futures, and the futures market becomes red, and the spot market becomes active; the futures market becomes green, and the spot market becomes 'flat'. It turns out that the steel traders predict the market will depend on the trend of the next week or month, and now they basically look at the futures night market, which is likely to determine the activity of the spot market the next morning. "Some industry insiders believe that excessive financialization of steel will lead to extremely unstable profit status of steel companies. "For example, steel prices fell sharply some time ago, steel companies began to reduce production significantly, and raw material prices fell accordingly. However, after the recent rise in steel prices, steel mills fell into losses again due to the rebound in raw fuel prices in less than a month. "Ren Qingping said, "This will intensify market fluctuations.( China Steel Network comprehensive China Metallurgical News, latest steel prices, etc.)
, domestic iron ore production forecast in Hebei and Shanxi in October
My Steel Network News: In early September, a safety accident occurred in some domestic iron ore mines in Qianxi, Hebei and Dai County, Shanxi, causing all mining in the area to be suspended. As of September 20, Mysteel research and investigations have been conducted, and all mining activities in Hebei Province have been suspended. On the one hand, due to the fermentation of the Qianxi mine accident, safety inspection efforts have been strengthened; on the other hand, gunpowder supply in Hebei Province began to be suspended in mid-September, and mines outside the city of Tangshan were unable to operate. Due to the Dai County accident in Shanxi, both Dai County and Fanzhi are in a safety inspection cycle, and most mining is in a state of suspension.
Although mining operations were suspended, the mineral processing operations in Hebei Province were not affected for the time being . The raw material inventory of mineral processing plants and mines in the province is relatively high, and it can maintain about 15-20 days of iron fine powder production; while the surrounding factories in Dai County, Shanxi have poor markets and average stocking conditions in the stock of raw materials. Coupled with the impact of the accident, the supply of raw materials is tight, and most of them are currently in a state of suspension.
According to Mysteel statistics, the production suspension cycle is relatively long, and the resumption time is expected to be at the end of October. In September, the average daily output of raw ore in Hebei Province is expected to decrease by 1.56 million tons month-on-month, a decrease of 1.34 million tons year-on-year; the iron fine powder production in Hebei Province is expected to remain the same in September as in August, and in October, it is expected to decrease by 5.4 million tons, a decrease of 4.74 million tons year-on-year.
Shanxi Dai County, given that it has been undergoing rectification from October last year to this year, the iron powder/orch output of Dai County in the accident may drop to the level after the accident last year. is expected to decrease by 14,000 tons per day.
In summary, due to multiple factors, the mine raw ore operations in Hebei Province, Dai County, Shanxi and Fanzhi are expected to be stopped until the end of October. Judging from the consumption of raw ore inventory, the iron fine powder production in the mine is less affected; the plant may be suspended in early October due to insufficient raw materials. (My Steel Network)
. Winter storage is approaching, analysis of the supply and demand pattern of thermal coal
My Steel Network News: August, affected by high temperature weather, downstream electricity consumption is high, driving the continuous growth of thermal power generation. The main production areas were affected by the epidemic and rainy weather, production and transportation were hindered, and raw coal production declined. The import volume has increased significantly due to the advantages of domestic coal use demand and imported coal cost. In terms of supply, in terms of
, in the first half of 2022, China's supply and price stability policies were frequently introduced, China's raw coal production grew significantly, and the supply guarantee of electric coal was significant. The cumulative raw coal production from January to August was 2.93 billion tons, an increase of 11.0% year-on-year. In August, the main coal production areas such as Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang were affected by the epidemic and rainfall, and regional controls continued to escalate. Some coal mine enterprises implemented static management, production and transportation were hindered, and raw coal production declined compared with July. In August, raw coal production was 370 million tons, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year and a decrease of 0.6% month-on-month.
Data source: Ganglian Data
The current impact of the epidemic in the production area has gradually faded, and the output in the main production areas has gradually returned to normal levels. With the continuous advancement of the national supply and price stability policy, coal mine production has maintained a high level . According to the production, sales and inventory data of Mysteel thermal coal mines on September 16, the sample operating rate in Inner Mongolia was 83.7%, a week-on-month increase of 1%; the sample operating rate in Shaanxi was 93.9%, a week-on-month increase of 1%. At present, coal mine sales are still mainly for long-term cooperation in ensuring supply, and inventory remains on-the-production and sales. As important meetings are approaching, coal mine security inspection efforts have increased. Coal mine production will likely focus on ensuring safety in the later stage, and coal supply may shrink in stages.
Data source: Ganglian Data
Data source: Ganglian Data
In terms of demand, is affected by factors such as continuous large-scale high temperature weather, water and electricity shortage and economic recovery and growth, the demand for thermal power continued to grow. From January to August, the total electricity consumption of the whole society reached 578.39 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. In August, the national average number of high temperature days was 5.2 days, 2.7 days more than the same period in the previous year, the most in the same period since 1961. Affected by the high temperature weather, residents' electricity consumption surged. In August, the whole society's electricity consumption was 852 billion kilowatt-hours, an increase of 10.7% year-on-year.
Data source: Ganglian Data
At present, the high temperature weather has gradually subsided, coal consumption has declined seasonally, and some power plant units have begun maintenance, but since the winter storage in the Northeast has begun, the Daqin Line is also scheduled to undergo a 25-day maintenance from October 9 to November 2. During the maintenance period, the coal shipment volume will drop from 1.3 million tons to about 1.08 million tons. Under the expectation of winter storage and railway maintenance, downstream restocking as needed. According to the consumption and inventory data of Mysteel 72 power plants on September 16, the total coal storage in the sample area was 11.157 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.703 million tons; the daily consumption was 503,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 23,000 tons; the available days were 22 days. In terms of imports of
, in the first half of the year, due to comprehensive factors, the flow of international coal has changed, and international coal prices remain high. China has been affected by the policy of increasing production and supply, and coal prices remained reasonable. and international shipping coal prices have been seriously inverted, thus reducing the import volume from . From January to August, a total of 168 million tons of coal and lignite were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 14.9%. In August, supported by domestic demand for coal and imported coal cost advantages, the number of bidding for imported coal in coastal power plants increased compared with the previous period, and traders actively shipped. In August, China imported 29.46 million tons of coal and lignite, an increase of 5.5% year-on-year.
Since China stopped importing Australian coal in 2020, more than 70% of my country's thermal coal resources imports came from Indonesia. In August, due to the increase in the amount of imported Indonesian coal, the price of imported Indonesian coal increased significantly. As of September 21, the price of Indonesia's Q3800FOB was 96 US dollars/ton, an increase of 26.3% year-on-year.
Data source: Ganglian Data
According to seasonal rules, after the weather in the north falls, power plants will gradually start winter storage and replenishment. Although the current downstream inventory is at a relatively high level, under the expectation of later supply shrinkage, terminals may replenish the inventory in advance. Overall, although demand in the later period has certain growth expectations, the current power plant replenishment is still mainly based on long-term resources. Therefore, the impact on market coal prices is limited. It is expected that under the background of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the thermal coal prices in the later period will remain within a reasonable price range. (My Steel Network)
. Tangshan steel billets lost 151 yuan, and oil prices fell seventh this year
◎ National Development and Reform Commission: The new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on September 21, and domestic retail price limits for automobile and diesel are reduced by 290 and 280 yuan per ton respectively.
◎ On September 21, the central bank's open market carried out 2 billion yuan of 7-day and 19 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repurchase operations, with the winning rates being 2.0% and 2.15% respectively. On that day, 2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 40 billion yuan of treasury cash deposits expired.
◎ On September 21, Shanghai Interbank Offering Rate: Overnight SHIBOR was 1.4680%, up 1.00 basis points. The 7-day SHIBOR was 1.7260%, up 3.90 basis points. The three-month SHIBOR was 1.6070%, up 0.10 basis points.
◎ Asian Development Bank has once again lowered its Asian economic growth expectations . It is now expected that the economic growth in 2022 will be 4.3%, down from the expected 5.2% in April, and its economic growth expectations for 2023 will be lowered from 5.3% to 4.9%.
◎ On September 20, the Swedish Central Bank announced that it would increase the benchmark interest rate from 0.75% to 1.75%, and the increase of reached 100 basis points , exceeding the previous market expectations by 75 basis points, becoming the first G10 currency central bank to cash in on the "Eagle Voice" this week.
◎ On September 21, Tangshan Qian'anpu Square Billet Resources Factory was reduced by 20 yuan/ton to 3590 yuan/ton.
◎ On September 21, the price of Lulongpu square billet in Qinhuangdao was reduced by 20 yuan/ton , and the factory was executed at 3,590 yuan/ton with tax.
◎ On September 21, Jiangsu Shagang issued the ex-factory price in late September. rebar remained flat, and ordinary coil screws remained flat. . Now rebar is 4200, high wires 4310, and coil screws 4400.
◎ This week, the average molten iron excluding tax cost of mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan was 2855 yuan/ton, and the average billet included tax cost was 3741 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 24 yuan/ton. Compared with the current ex-factory price of ordinary square billets on September 21, the average loss of steel mill was 151 yuan/ton, an increase of 106 yuan/ton on the weekly month-on-month.
◎ Mysteel estimates that the growth rate of crude steel production slows down in mid-September. The national crude steel production is estimated to be 28.8601 million tons, and the average daily output of is 2.886 million tons, up 0.91% month-on-month in early September and up 5.15% year-on-year.
◎ This week, Mysteel counted samples of 110 coal washing plants nationwide: the operating rate is 73.53% lower than the previous period value; the average daily output is 615,000 tons and 12,400 tons; the raw coal inventory is 29,500 tons; the refined coal inventory is 1.6009 million tons reduced by 24,000 tons.
◎ This week, Mysteel counted 47 steel production lines in 35 billet-adjusting steel enterprises in Tangshan, with 14 actual construction lines, with a starting rate of 29.79%, a decrease of 17.02% from last week; the capacity utilization rate was 39.07%, an increase of 4.36% from last week, and the finished product inventory was 667,100 tons, an increase of 0.76% from last week. The inventory of billets in the factory was 365,000 tons, an increase of 8.31% from last week.
◎ The 1880m³ blast furnace of the Laiwu Branch of Shandong Iron and Steel Group has been routinely repaired for 2 and a half months and is scheduled to resume production on September 23. It is expected that the average daily output will recover to 5,500 tons/day around the 27th.
◎ Starting from September 17, will resume production of a 2850m³ blast furnace , with an average daily increase of about 6,600 tons of iron and water production.
◎ The Ministry of Natural Resources released the "China Mineral Resources Report 2022". As of the end of 2021, 173 minerals have been discovered across the country, including 13 energy minerals, 59 metal minerals, 95 non-metallic minerals, and 6 water and gas minerals. In 2021, 95 newly discovered minerals nationwide. Breakthroughs have been made in oil and gas exploration in many basins such as Ordos, Junggar, Tarim, Sichuan and Bohai Bay, and major progress has been made in mineral exploration in coal, gold mines, "three rare" (rare, rare earths, and rare).
◎ From September 16th to 23rd, the first comprehensive inspection team of the National Mining Safety Supervision Bureau conducted a comprehensive inspection of mine safety work in Shanxi Province .
◎ According to incomplete statistics from Mysteel, since September, five provinces and cities have issued work on carrying out large-scale investigations on mine production safety.
◎ On September 17, the thermal load test run of the intelligent upgrade and transformation project of Taigang medium and thick plate production line was a complete success. The production scale of the entire thick plate production line is 700,000 tons of annual output, including 400,000 tons of carbon steel and 300,000 tons of stainless steel.
◎ Yunnan Yuxi Xianfu Iron and Steel (Group) Co., Ltd. plans to start production of a 100-ton converter in September with a production capacity of 1.3 million tons.
◎ On September 21, the 1200m³ blast furnace Yuxing hot air furnace of Jingye Group Ulanhaote Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. successfully ignites the oven.
◎ On September 16, 2022, the Eurasian Economic Commission issued Announcement No. 2022/328/AD35, and in accordance with Order No. 9 of the Internal Market Protection Department of the Eurasian Economic Commission on September 13, 2022, the second anti-dumping sunset review investigation was launched on colored-coated plates originating from mainland China. The products involved are cold-rolled steel plates with thickness between 0.2 mm and 2 mm, width exceeding 50 mm, polymer precoated cold-rolled galvanized steel plates.
◎ National Energy Administration: From January to August, the power supply project of major power generation enterprises across the country completed 320.9 billion yuan, and increased by 18.7% year-on-year . Among them, solar power generation was 102.5 billion yuan, an increase of 323.8% year-on-year. The investment in power grid projects reached 266.7 billion yuan, an increase of 10.7% year-on-year.
◎ As of September 20, a total of 5 central construction enterprises announced the new contract amount in the first eight months of 2022. Overall, the total amount of newly signed contracts of these five construction enterprises in the first eight months was about 4.18 trillion yuan, and increased by 14.7% year-on-year.
◎ Passenger Car Association: From September 1 to 18, the passenger car market retailed 794,000 vehicles, increased by 10% year-on-year, down 7% from the same period last month ; passenger car manufacturers nationwide wholesale 911,000 vehicles, up 29% year-on-year, up 8% from the same period last month.
◎ Guangzhou’s "14th Five-Year Plan" phase planning goals are: build 1 new hydrogen production station, and build more than 3 hydrogen production stations in total; build more than 50 hydrogen refueling stations in total; carry out the construction of 1-2 hydrogen production and hydrogen refueling combined stations, and carry out the relevant work of 1-2 hydrogen storage stations (or relying on hydrogen production stations, hydrogen production and hydrogen refueling combined stations, and hydrogen refueling stations to consider hydrogen storage). (My Steel Network)
. Is the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike still negative for the steel market?
As of the 19th, the market price of construction steel fluctuated slightly. The average price of rebar in major cities is 4113 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The futures spiral fluctuated and consolidated, the closing price of the main contract was 3,696 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared with the settlement price of the previous working day, and was discounted by 294 yuan/ton compared with the market price of Zhongtian Thread in Hangzhou. Although it is already in the traditional peak season in mid-September, demand recovery is lower than expected. After the release of economic data, it has caused significant fluctuations. In addition, the recent sturdy market fluctuations are running. If the market can stabilize, the bottom line guarantee capacity of the market trading is not necessary. We should still pay attention to the fact that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike boots are landed in the early morning of the 22nd. The interest rate resolution of the Federal Reserve's interest rate agenda meeting is one of the important variables affecting the market, and it is likely to add 75 basis points. If the interest rate hike is 100 basis points, it will be extremely bad for commodities. In the medium and long term, commodity prices will accelerate fluctuate and fall under the wave of interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States. At present, the overall demand is poor, and the market inventory is slightly accumulated, so the overall sentiment of market traders is relatively cautious.
macroeconomic data overall improved, with production, investment and consumption all rising. The growth rate of fixed asset investment has increased slowly, and the year-on-year decline in new construction and construction has slightly increased, down 6.73% and 8.93% respectively on a month-on-month basis. The year-on-year decline in land purchase area expanded to 56.6%, a month-on-month decrease of 6.9%, which is approximately equal to the decline in new construction. Judging from the data, the worst time for land acquisition and new construction has not yet passed. Even if the urban investment investor participates in land acquisition, the land acquisition area is still very low, and the premium rate fluctuates at a low level. Real estate companies will invest more efforts to the second half of construction. The decline in real estate development investment has expanded, and the average daily output of crude steel, pig iron and steel has rebounded month-on-month. As one goes up and down, supply and demand contradictions have accumulated again.
macro data will generally continue to rebound. The economy will still rebound in the third quarter, which will be significantly better than 0.4% in the second quarter. Real estate is still a drag, and only the completion end has performed well, indicating that the "security and payment of buildings" and related policies have played their due role. The decline in the growth rate of real estate investment has also continued to expand, affecting the overall decline in consumption of home appliances, building materials and other types of consumption, sales growth rate remains low, and real estate construction projects, new construction and land acquisition are still weak. But we must also see that the decline in real estate investment has narrowed and infrastructure investment has accelerated significantly, which has alleviated the downward pressure on real estate and exports to a certain extent. The overall macroeconomic pattern of "strong production and weak consumption" needs to be further improved.
The current profits of rebar mills have been significantly restored, with a profit of -80~100 yuan/ton. Some steel mills have begun to resume production and the overall supply has increased. Although the supply of steel mills has increased, the market steel mills and social inventory is at a low level, the market resources are relatively tight, and price support is strong.
Recently, the price of construction steel in most parts of the country has been stable and weak, and the market sentiment is relatively uneasy. Although the impact of the typhoon has come to an end, the short-term demand release is still insufficient, and the willingness of middlemen to enter the market is relatively low. The futures spiral fell, and market sentiment weakened. In order to seek shipments, some merchants continued to drop in prices. This week, supply and demand contradictions appeared, inventory stopped falling and rebounded, merchants were generally sluggish, real estate faced a large cycle turning point, and coupled with the increasing pressure on the global economic recession caused by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, the operating conditions of steel companies are still not optimistic. The overall arrival of steel mills is average, and the market inventory continues to be low. There was a small accumulation process around October. The raw materials double coke and iron ore were running strongly before the festival, and the downward space for steel costs was limited, and losses forced steel mills to reduce production. The short-term downward conditions are insufficient, the upward momentum is also insufficient, and the room for price movement is limited. It is expected that the prices of construction steel are stable and slightly adjusted in the near future. (Zhonglian Steel United Steel Network)
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