Zhitong Finance APP learned that the US dollar opened steadily on Monday, the strong U.S. labor market strengthened its bet on market interest rate hikes, and traders were also prepared to welcome the high expected inflation data.
According to data released last Friday, the U.S. unemployment rate in September fell unexpectedly. Inflation data to be released on Thursday is expected to increase overall inflation by 8.1% year-on-year. Policymakers believe that the core inflation rate is expected to rise to 6.5%.
Westpac strategist Sean Callow said the data and the corresponding rise in yields are a "strong combination" for the dollar exchange rate.
(Instant U.S. dollar index - Data source: British Financial Information)
"This will further verify that the US economy is not in trouble." Sean Callow continued to say that "the Federal Reserve will also express the same view on the US dollar interest rate issue in the next three weeks."
In terms of world currencies, rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions also provide sufficient reasons for people's concerns about economic growth, putting the currencies of European energy importers and even exporting currencies such as the Australian dollar, which are sensitive to economic growth.
In addition, in early Asian trading, due to the impact of Japan's holiday, the Australian dollar fell 0.3% to 0.6347 USD/AUD, a record low in the past two and a half years; the pound exchange rate also fell 0.2% to 1.1071 USD/British pound; the Japanese yen exchange rate is continuing to fall to a lower range of 145 yen to 1 USD/AUD, prompting the Japanese authorities to intervene in support last month.
During the late trading session, the Japanese yen exchange rate against the US dollar was 145.37 yen/USD. The New Zealand dollar hit a two-week low of $0.5593/NZD.
According to futures pricing, traders expect the probability of a 75 basis point hike in the United States next month is close to 90%, and the interest rate tightened by more than 150 basis points before May. FEDWATCH also rose for the 10th consecutive week of 10 years last week.
In addition, as winter approaches and the US benchmark Brent crude oil futures rose by more than 11% last week as winter comes and as Saudi-led oil producer cartel agrees to cut production, the U.S. benchmark Brent crude oil futures rose more than 11% last week, coupled with geopolitical behaviors such as the intensification of the Ukrainian war, rising energy prices will further pose a threat to European energy security.
Euro exchange rate sector, the euro against the US dollar fell below $0.98/euro last Friday, and was last traded at $0.9733/euro. The U.S. dollar index stabilized at 112.83 points, breaking from the low of around 110 points last week and rebounding to a 20-year high of 114.78 points last month.
In the ruble area, the market is waiting for the Kremlin to react to the explosion of the only bridge leading to Crimea in Russia. Last weekend, North Korea, which has nuclear weapons in neighboring Russia, also conducted its seventh missile test in the near future.
