[Overseas Information]
During the National Day holiday, US stock first rose sharply on October 3 and 4, among which S&P 500 index cumulatively rose by more than 5.7%. Driven by this, the Hong Kong stock Hang Seng Index soared on October 5, closing up 5.9%, regaining the 18,000-point index mark. After that, the peripheral market has undergone adjustments. US stocks fell significantly on October 6 and October 7. As of the close of October 7, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.11%; the S&P 500 fell 2.8%; the Nasdaq index fell 3.8%, and once fell more than 4% during the session, giving up most of the week's gains in a single day.
The number of non-farm employment in the United States increased by 263,000 in September, and was estimated to increase by 255,000, and increased by 315,000 in August. The U.S. unemployment rate in September was 3.5%, with an estimate of 3.7%, and the previous value was 3.7%. The average hourly wage of in the United States in September increased by 5.0% year-on-year, and expected to increase by 5.0%. Federal funds rate shows that the probability of a 375 basis point hike in the United States in November is 92%, higher than the 85.5% before the release of the non-farm employment report in September.
Credit Suisse Group announced on October 7 that Credit Suisse International proposed to repurchase part of OpCo senior debt securities in cash, with an amount of up to about 3 billion Swiss francs . Credit Suisse announced on the same day that it is making cash offers on eight high-end debt securities denominated in euros or pounds, with a total consideration of no more than 1 billion euros. At the same time, Credit Suisse also announced a separate cash offer for 12 USD-denominated senior debt securities, with a total price of no more than US$2 billion. Both offer are subject to the various conditions set out in the memorandum of their offer. These offer will expire on November 3, 2022 and November 10, 2022, respectively.
On October 5th local time, affected by the news of oil production cuts, international oil prices rebounded for five consecutive trading days, setting the largest single-week increase since March. Huabao Oil & Gas (162411) index SPSIOP soared 14.22% during the National Day holiday! !
[Institutional Future Market View]
After continuous adjustments in the third quarter, institutions are not pessimistic about the market performance in the fourth quarter. Most institutions believe that the current A shares adjustment is relatively sufficient and can be moderately laid out.
Guosheng Securities said that for the current A-shares, there is no need to be pessimistic in the index, and the structure is more important than the position .
On the one hand, based on the calculation of the existing constituent stock , the dynamic valuation and ERP of the CSI 800 Index before the National Day have approached the level at the end of April this year.
On the other hand, from the perspective of asset pricing , the full A index is once again close to the theoretical long-term support line under the nominal economic growth rate of 10%, which means that there is not much room for the index to continue to decline. More importantly, several important bottom trading signals: general decline (strong stocks fell together with weak stocks in the early stage), shrinkage (compression of trading volume and turnover rate), and sentiment (emotional indicators reach the bottom turning point), are gradually emerging.
Nomura Oriental International believes that the October policy expectation is expected to reverse the market downward trend. The process of interest rate hikes in the United States continues to attract the attention of global investors. The highly uncertain overseas market has added emotional risks to Hong Kong stocks and A-shares. However, for A-shares, the sluggish trading volume before the holiday will gradually recover from next week. At the same time, the convening of important domestic meetings in October is expected to bring stronger policy expectations to A-shares and help the market rebound.
Founder Securities believes that the market accelerated adjustment in September. The reason behind this may be the rapid decline in exports and PPI data. Looking forward to the future market, we are optimistic about the market performance of A shares market after the festival.
This round of profit downward cycle has come to an end. From historical experience, PPI is the macroeconomic indicator with the closest correlation with corporate profitability. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of PPI will drop below 0 by the end of the year. It has now entered the middle and late stages of this round of profit downward cycle, and the "market bottom" usually appears before the "basic bottom".
Galaxy Securities pointed out that policies suppress less demand for improved medical care may face more cost-control measures, while essential medical care that has been suppressed by policies for a long time has marginal opportunities for policy improvement. As policy pressures rise and fall, medical allocation funds may be transferred from improved medical care to essential medical care.From the perspective of valuation, most of the valuations of improved medical care are high. The valuations of essential medicines, consumables, etc. that have been suppressed by policies are relatively low. There is also a demand for market switching between
[Domestic Hot News]
During the National Day holiday in 2022, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 21 key cities monitored by the China Index Academy decreased by 37.7% year-on-year, but some cities saw year-on-year growth under the low base in the same period last year. Considering the lag in online signing data, the real estate market in some cities has recovered to a certain extent during the Golden Week. At the same time, many places across the country have adjusted the housing provident fund loan interest rates from October, and the interest rate for the first personal housing provident fund loan was lowered by 0.15 percentage points, and the interest rates for less than 5 years (including 5 years) and more than 5 years were adjusted to 2.6% and 3.1% respectively.
According to statistics from Databao, data in the past 10 years show that the A-share market has a high probability of a good start after the National Day Golden Week. The 197 stocks outperformed the market in at least 8 trading days after the National Day holiday, with the majority of pharmaceutical, biological, chemical and computer stocks. Data also shows that the medium and high winning rate sectors in the fourth quarter were mainly concentrated in major consumer sectors such as automobiles, electronics, building materials, and food and beverages.
National Day holiday, local surrounding tours have become "hot cakes". According to statistics, on the seven days of National Day, local and surrounding tourism orders account for 65%, and the per capita tourism expenditure in local surrounding areas increased by nearly 30% compared with last year's National Day. Driven by the heating up of surrounding tours, the previously hot "camping economy" has exploded in full swing, with camping tourism orders increasing by more than 10 times, and it is well deserved to be the hottest theme.
[Latest capital situation of securities companies ETF (512000)]
As of the closing on September 30, securities companies ETF (512000) fell 0.38%, closing 0.783 yuan, with a turnover of 388 million yuan, and the net inflow of funds exceeded 60 million yuan throughout the day.
At this point, the securities ETF (512000) has continued net inflows of funds for 13 consecutive trading days, with a total inflow of funds reaching 1.615 billion yuan.
[Broker ETF (512000) Time-sharing chart]
[Share continues to be high! Funds are actively deployed by securities ETF (512000) in the securities sector]
Funds are actively deployed by securities ETF (512000). Data shows that as of September 30, the share of securities ETF (512000) has increased by 6.429 billion shares since the beginning of the year, with a total net inflow of 5.906 billion yuan.
's latest fund size is 27.576 billion shares, continuing to set a new high since its listing.
[Correspondent ETF (512000) share changes]
In terms of financing, the financing purchase amount of the Securities ETF (512000) on September 30 was 93 million yuan, and the latest financing balance was 31.716 billion yuan.
[Special reminder of mainstream A-share ETFs: Securities ETF (512000) | A-share market trend vane]
[Three logical catalysis of comprehensive registration system + wealth management + derivative innovation, undervaluation value highlights]
Comprehensive registration system: Capital market reform and related policies continue to deepen in 2022. The high-level meeting made it clear that the stock issuance registration system will be fully implemented in 2022. The comprehensive registration system will help improve issuance efficiency, increase the proportion of direct financing, and bring performance increase to securities investment banking business . The registration system reform has put forward higher requirements for the brokerage's underwriting capabilities, pricing capabilities and sales capabilities, and leading brokerage firms with rich project experience and sufficient talent reserves will benefit even more.
Wealth Management: As of the end of the second quarter of 2022, the total net asset value of public funds in the entire market was 26.66 trillion yuan, a significant rebound of 6.71% from the first quarter. The total scale of non-monetary market funds of public funds totaled 16.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.43% month-on-month, and the scale once again reached a historical high. The third pillar and supporting policies continue to be implemented, and the productization of residents' pension savings funds is a relatively certain trend. In the medium and long term, it is conducive to cultivating residents' awareness and habits of financial asset allocation. Personal Pension System will further strengthen the growth logic of the big wealth management track.
derivative innovation: In July, CSI 1000 stock index futures and stock index options were officially listed. At present, the stock index derivative family has covered Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, Shanghai Shenzhen 300, CSI 500 and CSI 1000. The continuous enrichment of derivative camps such as stock index futures and options will help further meet investors' safe-haven needs, attract more investors to enter the market, enrich trading strategies, and drive the development of related businesses of securities companies.
valuation bottom area: Currently, the latest price-to-book ratio of the CSI All Index Securities Company Index (399975) is 1.21 times, lower than the time range of more than 97% in history, and is in the historical bottom area. Driven by long-term positive factors such as improving policies, highly continuous improvement in capital market construction, driving demand for wealth management, and continuous opening of financial market innovation, the value of sector allocation is significant.
[One base to grasp the advantages of strong top securities firms always strong + high elasticity of small and medium-sized securities firms]
Brokerage ETF (512000) tracks the CSI All-Index Securities Company Index (399975), covering all brokerage stocks on the market that have been listed for more than half a year, with a total of 49 shares, of which 60% of the positions are concentrated in the top ten leading brokers, sharing the long-term value of strong big brokers always strong. Another 40% of the positions take into account the high elasticity of small and medium-sized brokers' performance. It is a high-efficiency investment tool that concentrates on the top securities firms and takes into account small and medium-sized brokers.
Brokerage ETF has connected fund (A share code 006098/C share code 007531). Investors without on-site securities accounts can apply for the A and C shares of brokerage ETF connected fund on the Internet for sale platform 7*24. You can buy at least 10 yuan, which is convenient and efficient.
[Risk Warning] The underlying index tracked by securities ETFs is the CSI All Index Securities Company Index (399975). The base date of the CSI All Index Securities Company Index was June 29, 2007, released on July 15, 2013. The historical performance of the index was backtested based on the current constituent stock structure simulation of the index. Its index constituent stocks may change, and its backtest historical performance does not indicate the index's future performance. Any information that appears in this article (including but not limited to stocks , comments, forecasts, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only, and investors must be responsible for any independent investment behavior. In addition, any viewpoints, analysis and forecasts in this article do not constitute any form of investment advice to readers, and the Company shall not be liable for direct or indirect losses arising from the use of the content of this article. Fund investment is risky, and the fund's past performance does not represent its future performance. Investment should be cautious. Money fund investment is not the same as bank deposits, and does not guarantee a certain profit or a minimum return.
