The foreign market during this National Day holiday can be said to be a bit thrilling. US stock first rebounded rapidly and significantly, giving people a piece of candy, full of hope for the future of the capital market. He thought that Fed would let go of the world, and rate hike slowed down or no interest rate hike. As a result, no one expected that at this critical moment, there was a problem with the international crude oil futures price. Not only did it not continue to fall, but it showed a continuous rebound, and the international crude oil futures price hit the largest single-week increase since March this year.
Brent crude oil futures price rose by more than 4% last night, and a breakthrough positive line appeared, breaking through the downward trend line since the decline of US$125 per barrel in one fell swoop, giving people the feeling that crude oil futures have entered a bullish trend again. Judging from the current trend of Brent crude oil prices, it has been rebounding for 5 days, and the K-line pattern has shown a clear 5 consecutive positives. This is a typical bull camp. What prompts this phenomenon is OPEC + and Russia and Saudi are about to reduce production, so crude oil futures prices have risen sharply. At present, the Brent crude oil futures price has reached US$98 per barrel. It is not a problem to return to 100 yuan now.
is actually not just Brent crude oil futures , but WTI crude oil futures prices also rose by 5% last night, forming a bullish arrangement in the trend. In this case, the US inflation will further intensify. It was originally tried to think that hikes in interest rates will accelerate the global economic recession. The United States should stop hikes or slow down the pace of interest rate hikes at this time to slow down the global economy, and the stock market will also rebound appropriately. However, oil-producing countries do not think so. To ensure their own interests, they must use production cuts to regain the upward trend. As long as oil prices rise and return to above $100 per barrel, global energy costs will increase, and global inflation will not be able to slow down. The most extreme at this time is to use interest rates to curb consumer demand, thus bringing negative expectations to the economy.
This is why everyone saw why the US stock market fell again last night. Dow Jones Index fell by 2%, which is a bit likely to break through 29,000 points again. Nasdaq Index fell by 3.8%, giving people the feeling that the global financial market has once again panicked.
The biggest feeling that these phenomena echo each other is that the global commodity and financial markets seem to lack backbone. Everyone is on their own and has not made concessions and measures for the overall recovery of the economy. This will accelerate the pace of economic recession. However, the most important thing is to see how the Federal Reserve views the issues of economic recession and inflation, which is crucial to the future.
What will happen to next Monday?
Compared with the Dow Jones Index, Nasdaq 's trend last night was very bad. It directly jumped low and closed a big negative line with a sharp decline. It felt like it was close to 10,000 points in the previous period. The decline of US stocks has never allowed A-shares to survive. But at present, there is no need to panic. I feel that I will face such changes after the holiday:
First, on National Day, long term Before, A-shares were in a continuous decline. Even on the last trading day, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 17 points and did not show the expected closing red. This actually shows a very cautious attitude of market funds. I estimate that a considerable number of funds left before the holiday, so the remaining funds are likely not to be eliminated. Even if opens on on National Day, the index will still fall. The probability of this part of holding is not very high. In this way, the downward expectations are not so strong.
followed by US stocks. Although the US stock market has fallen sharply in the past two days, it is only a resumption of the increase during the long holiday and has not hit a new low. This cannot be considered too bad for A-shares. The key is that the part of the funds that went out before the holiday was to safe-haven the US stock market hit a new low during the long holiday. The result is no new low. It is likely that the opening after the holiday will be safe. These funds should theoretically return.
So the conclusion is that after the A-share market opens next Monday, it is normal to properly open low, and there will be a capital replenishment effect, which will ultimately form a new buyer's strength to the market upward.
Disclaimer: The content in the article is for reference only and does not constitute any operational suggestions or prompts. Please be cautious when there are risks in the stock market and investment!
