key points:
. Non-agricultural data is higher than expected, is it destined to be in danger tonight? Beware of the new round of hawkish pricing. Some traders have cut positions in advance., , , and the new round of financial report season is coming. US banking industry's Q3 profits may shrink significantly
1. Pre-market market
Before the US stock market, the three major futures indexes dived into after the non-agricultural data was released. As of 20:34 Beijing time, as of press time, Nasdaq futures fell 1.33%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.60%, and Dow futures fell 0.30%.
chip stocks fell across the board before the market, while US Ultramicro (AMD) led the decline, falling more than 5% before the market, while Nvidia, Intel and TSMC both fell nearly 3%. In terms of
ETF, 3x shorted semiconductor ETF (SOXS) rose more than 7% before the market, and 2x shorted Bloomberg natural gas ETF (KOLD) rose more than 3% before the market.
2. News of the day
Non-agricultural data was higher than expected, US stock futures plunged, and the US dollar rose
The United States' non-agricultural employment population was 263,000 after the seasonal adjustment in September, the smallest increase since April 2021, with an expected 250,000 people, the previous value of 315,000 people; the United States' unemployment rate in September was 3.5%, expected 3.70%, and the previous value of 3.70%. After the release of US non-farm data, the index rose nearly 40 points in the short term to 112.52, and gold fell nearly 10 US dollars. Federal funds rate shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve hike rate by 475 basis points in November is 92%, higher than the 85.5% before the September non-farm employment report was released.
Non-agricultural night U.S. stocks are in danger? Beware of the new round of hawks pricing. Some traders have cut positions in advance
. Before the non-agricultural data was released, the market expected that the non-agricultural report may trigger a new round of hawks' repricing, allowing the market to fully digest the expectation of interest rate hikes 75 basis points. As U.S. stocks hit their biggest two-day gains since 2020 early this week, long-short strategy hedge fund reduced their long and short positions at the same time, with their net U.S. stock exposure remained near its lowest level since the 2020 crash, according to data from MFC data. JM Morgan analyst John Schlegel said this reflects the overall reluctance of investors to increase their exposure and need to continue to wait and see the performance of macro data.
A new round of financial report season for the US stock market is coming, and the US banking industry's Q3 profit may shrink significantly
The largest banks in the United States will begin to announce Q3 results next Friday, and the market expects banking performance to show a decline in net profit. Refinitiv data shows that analysts expect JPMorgan profit to fall by 24%, while Citigroup and Wells Fargo net profit is expected to fall by 32% and 17% respectively. It is also expected that Morgan Stanley profit will fall by 28%, while its competitor Goldman Sachs will fall sharply by 46%, as companies' interest in mergers and acquisitions and IPOs weakened.
Bank: The bank's bull and bear indicator has remained "extremely bearish" for three consecutive weeks, and the outlook for risky assets
Bank's bull and bear indicator has remained at "extremely bearish" level for three consecutive weeks. In addition, Bank of America said that the Bank of Japan cannot prevent the dollar from hitting new highs against the yen, and the Bank of England's quantitative easing cannot prevent the UK Treasury yield from hitting new highs, and risky assets will hit new lows in October.
Mester and other Fed officials continued to make hawkish remarks, emphasizing further interest rate hikes
Local time on Thursday, Cleveland Fed Chairman Mester said that U.S. inflation is unacceptable. Next year, Minneapolis Fed Chairman Kashkali said that more work should be done to reduce inflation.Federal Reserve Director Cook said that restoring price stability may require continuous interest rate hikes, and then implement restricted interest rate policies for a period of time. Fed governor Waller expects a rate hike early next year, and Friday’s jobs report may not change the Fed’s view that it should be 100% focused on reducing inflation. Chicago Fed Chairman Evans said further interest rates are needed, and the next meeting will discuss whether the rate hike is 50 basis points or 75 basis points, and the interest rate is likely to reach 4.5%-4.75% next spring.
Inflation remains high, and nearly half of American families feel "very stressed"
Among the American families surveyed by the Census Bureau, nearly half of them believe that the recent rise in consumer prices is "very stressed", while the vast majority of the remaining families are also worried about inflation. Since March this year, the U.S. monthly consumer price index (CPI) has increased by more than 8% year-on-year. The University of Michigan 8 consumer survey showed that only 18% of respondents expected revenue growth to outperform inflation.
"Currency Defense War" is too expensive! Japan's foreign exchange reserves showed the largest decline since record
As of the end of September, Japan's foreign exchange reserves reached US$1.2380 trillion, a decrease of more than US$54 billion from the previous month, and a decline of two consecutive months, setting the largest single-month decrease since a record. It is reported that factors such as the previous sell-off of the US dollar and large-scale market intervention by the Japanese government, including the purchase of the Japanese yen, are part of the reasons for the reduction of foreign exchange reserves.
OPEC+ sharp production cuts helped oil prices sprint for "five consecutive increases", and are expected to hit the largest single-week increase in March
Affected by news such as OPEC+ sharp production cuts, crude oil price continued to rebound, and closed higher in the first four trading days of this week. Berry Oil and WTI crude oil both rose by more than 11%, which is expected to hit the largest single-week increase since March this year.
On Thursday local time, US President Biden said he was disappointed with OPEC+'s decision to cut oil production and was looking for alternatives. However, Bank of America commodity research experts believe that the practice of not optimistic about the oil market policy of the White House and the use of strategic oil reserves to alleviate the rise in energy prices may only have a counterproductive effect on the United States.3. The revenue expectations for well-known US stocks
were lowered compared with the previous guidance! AMD (AMD) Profit Warnings with Collapse Chip Stocks
On Thursday local time, AMD issued another profit warning, which increased the market's concerns about the chip industry. The company expects revenue in the third quarter to be about $5.6 billion, up 29% year-on-year, well below the previous estimate of $6.71 billion, a 16.5% decline. It is also worth noting that on Friday, Samsung Electronics , the leading chip industry, released its preliminary performance report, with profits falling sharply by 32% in the third quarter, the first year-on-year decline in the past three years, highlighting the sluggish demand in the industry. Affected by this news, chip stocks fell before the market.
Image source from the Internet
Musk: Tesla (TSLA) will deliver Semi electric truck to Pepsi on December 1
Musk said on social platforms that Tesla has begun to produce its long-awaited Semi electric truck and plans to start delivering to Pepsi on December 1. The soft drink company ordered 100 electric transport vehicles in December 2017, when Semi trucks were just one month after it was released.
see through Musk's "delaying strategy". Twitter (TWTR) company intends to promote the trial lock-in merger case
Musk and Twitter still continue. After Musk restarted the acquisition, Twitter only expressed its acceptance of the proposal to restart the acquisition and remained silent on the issue of withdrawal of the lawsuit. Media analysis said Twitter may be worried that Musk's further acquisition is a delaying strategy. Andrew Jennings, a professor at Brooklyn Law School in the United States, believes that Twitter hopes to "lock" the deal and does not allow Musk to have room for maneuver.
Creditsin (CS) intends to repurchase US$3 billion bonds in cash to prove capital strength
htmlOn October 7, Credit Suisse announced that it will repurchase some OpCo senior bonds in cash, with a total amount of approximately 3 billion Swiss francs .French foreign trade bank Chief Asia Pacific economist Alicia Garcia Herrero said: "Bond repurchase is a way for Credit Suisse to deal with the current situation. They hope to reduce the CDS spread before raising funds again." Image source from the Internet
Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) plans to invest nearly US$690 million in Japan by 2024, and will set up a data center in Japan for the first time next year
According to Nikkei News, Alphabet CEO Pichai said in an interview on Friday that within the four years of 2024, Google plans to invest a total of 100 billion yen (about 690 million US dollars) in Japan, with some of the funds going to open Google's first data center in Japan. It is reported that Google plans to build a data center in Chiba Prefecture, near Tokyo next year, aiming to ensure faster and more stable access for Google services.
US interactive fitness platform Peloton (PTON) will cut nearly 12% of jobs, for the fourth round of layoffs this year
On Thursday local time, "epidemic Internet celebrity stock" Peloton said that it plans to lay off about 500 employees, about 12% of the total number of current employees. This is the fourth round of layoffs this year for the fitness platform. Peloton has about 3,800 employees worldwide, less than half of the company's peak last year.
4. Well-known Chinese
TSMC (TSM) September revenue was 208.25 billion NT$3 NT$4 NT$4 NT$4 NT$5 NT$6 TSMC's revenue was 208.25 billion NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$2 NT$ The total revenue from January to September 2022 was NT$1.64 trillion, an increase of 42.6% year-on-year. NIO Auto (NIO) : ES7 is renamed EL7 and will continue to respond to relevant trademark lawsuits At the upcoming NIO Berlin 2022 event, NIO will announce its entry into the German, Netherlands , Denmark, Swedish markets and release three new cars. NIO named its ES7, which was previously listed in the Chinese market as EL7. Previously, Audi company raised questions about the name of NIO ES8/ES6 model and filed a lawsuit in Germany. NIO said that in view of the prolonged lawsuit, in order to avoid affecting the interests of European users, NIO decided to use the EL7 model name in Europe and will continue to respond to the relevant trademark lawsuits that are still being held in Germany. 5. Financial preview New US stocks Alopexx (ALPX) Castellum (CTM) Important economic schedule data pictures are from the Internet
