Something suddenly happened that the peripheral stock markets fell sharply, and it also fell sharply for two consecutive trading days, especially US stock , Dow Jones Index , the cumulative decline of these two trading days was as high as more than 3%, Nasdaq , and S&P 500 Index also fell significantly.
Moreover, with the sharp drop of US stocks, European stock markets have also shown a bleak phenomenon, and are basically in a collective decline, including the Asia-Pacific stock market, which is not ideal, and it is another coordinated collective decline.
The main reason for this is the linkage effect caused by the decline of US stocks. Why are US stocks starting to make trouble again?
is mainly Fed has repeatedly conveyed a series of information such as "it won't slow down the pace of interest rate hikes soon", and "it must suppress the inflation of to 2% ," and "it won't cut interest rates next year" and other information, which will have a great impact on US stocks.
So, the market has become more and more panicked again. Moreover, the non-agricultural data in the United States in September was stronger than expected, and the economic data began to improve significantly. Therefore, many investors began to worry about expectations of interest rate hikes.
At this time, more importantly, OPEC also announced a significant reduction in production to achieve the goal of boosting oil prices. So, this adds a lot of pressure to the prices of the United States. Under the dominance of factors, the US stock market suddenly fell sharply again.
, and some Wall Street analysts believe: " The current Fed will not help the financial market, but will continue to pursue price stability. Before the problem arises, the Fed will most likely not make any changes. "
Under this background, the US stock market fell again, especially 11 sectors in the S&P 500 fell sharply, which involved Telecom , real estate, finance, medical care, etc., which was a terrible market.
So, what impact will this have on A shares ?
What we can see is that during the A-share market closing period, in fact, the US stock market is still rising overall. The Dow Jones Index rose 1.99% this week, the Nasdaq Index rose 0.73% this week, and the S&P 500 rose 1.51% this week.
From the perspective of the trend of US stocks, it may have a certain positive impact on the occurrence of A-shares next week. Although US stocks have indeed adjusted significantly this Thursday and Friday this week, US stocks still rose most when A-shares are closed.
So, why do you say that the worse one hasn't come yet?
mainly because the negative signals on the technical side of the US stock market are too obvious. It can be seen that since the US stock market has experienced a decline, it has experienced a sharp drop near the html January line for three consecutive times.
Take the S&P 500 as an example. The first time was on August 26 this year, the second time was on September 12 this year, and the third time was on October 6. The high points of these three rebounds were all near the monthly line. After touching the monthly line, the market fell immediately.
includes the Dow Jones and Nasdaq indexes, and this is a very standard five-wave decline market. Now the three major U.S. stock indexes have just begun the fifth wave decline, and even the low point of the fourth wave has not yet fallen.
So, the worse thing has not come yet, because the decline of the US stock market has just begun and has not ended. Moreover, the Fed's interest rate hike has made a big decision. Under this background, the bear market of the US stock market has begun.
Therefore, A-shares will also be affected by linkage, but it is worth noting that the overall risk below 3000 points of is actually very small, because most of the Shanghai Composite Index has been running above 3000 points in recent years.
This is an obvious dividing line.
At present, the Shanghai Composite Index is very close to 3000 points, which may fall below 3000 points, but it will also form a bottom. Moreover, the linkage brought by A-shares to the decline of US stocks has become relatively strong, which is also a good performance.
From a technical perspective, the three major A-share indexes all have repaired market conditions, divergence, deviation rate , gaps, and various indicators all need to rise to repair. Therefore, there is no need to be too pessimistic about A-shares.
Although the worse US stock market has not yet come, the worst A-share market has passed. Even if it will fall next, the decline will definitely be very limited.
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