Direct News: Mr. Liu, Russian President Putin met with Turkish President Erdogan at the Astana Asia Information Summit and proposed that a "hub" can be established through Turkey to supply natural gas to Europe, and the transportation volume lost by the "Northern Stream" pipeline will be transferred to the Black Sea region. What do you think about this?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: There is a Chinese saying that Feng Shui will turn around, thirty years from Hedong to thirty years from Hexi. In fact, it takes no thirty years to deal with the issue of Russian-European natural gas trade. After just over ten days, the status of buyers and sellers and the situation they face have undergone earth-shaking changes.
In the past, or more accurately, before the "North Stream" No. 12 natural gas pipeline was blown up, EU often accused Russia of blackmailing them with energy issues, not only extorting economically, but also often raising prices at will by controlling gas supply, but also attempting to use energy supply issues to force the EU to submit politically. However, after the "North Stream" No. 12 gas pipeline was blown up, that is, at the Astana Asia News Summit, Russia went from a seller who had no worries about marrying an emperor's daughter and could beg for others to buy it everywhere. President Putin himself even acted as a salesman himself.
You can see that at the Asia Information Summit, Putin first told Germany that gas could be transported to Germany through a pipeline that has not been damaged by " Nord Stream 2 ", as long as Germany opens the valve to receive it. However, this well-intentioned proposal was rejected by Germany. German government spokesman Hoffman said that although the proposal is good, Germany no longer regards Russia as a reliable energy supplier. You should know that after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and OPEC+ announced oil production cuts, Germany, which is entering a severe winter, and even the entire Europe are indeed facing a very serious energy shortage. In this case, they rejected Putin's proposal, which proves once again that once the war occurs, security issues will become overwhelming.
After being rejected by Germany, Putin proposed to Turkish President Erdogan to build a new branch of the "Turkey Creek" pipeline and to build Türkiye into a Russian-European energy supply hub. Although Erdogan had a positive attitude towards this, he did not agree clearly.
In short, as Putin said, whether to accept Russia's natural gas supply is now on the EU side. All these mean that the current situation has changed. The energy card that Russia played well in the past has now become a card in the hands of the buyer, that is, the EU.
Direct news: Then in your opinion, why did Putin take the initiative to ask the EU to purchase Russian natural gas at this time?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: In fact, to put it bluntly, Putin, while the EU is still hostile to Russia and continues to provide a large amount of military aid to Ukraine in an attempt to defeat the Russian army, he also has to take the initiative to ask the EU to purchase natural gas. Behind this is nothing more than money. It shows that Russia's economic situation has become difficult as Western countries become increasingly severe economic blockades and financial sanctions, especially refusal to buy Russian natural gas. Because Russia's industrial system is not developed and its economic structure is single, exporting energy has almost become its main source of income. If at this critical moment, the EU, the world's largest and richest buyer, will not only have problems with military expenditures on the front line, but also have problems with morale in the rear, but also may have problems with the economy, people's livelihood and people's hearts. In other words, exporting energy to the EU involves military stability in the front and political stability in the rear.
In addition to the immediate economic difficulties, Putin took the initiative to sell energy to the EU, and was still thinking about Russia's long-term and making up for the long-term geo-economic and political landscape. You should know that although the main part of Russia's territory is in Asia, it has always regarded itself as a European country. At the same time, uniting the EU to fight against the threat from the United States and Japan in the Far East is Russia's long-standing national strategy. For Russia, it has neither the common ideology and values advantages. The EU has always regarded Russia as an alien on this issue, nor has it common security advantages. The EU has always regarded Russia as the biggest threat to security. The only umbilical cord that can connect itself with the EU is actually huge energy trade. Once the energy trade channels of Russia and Europe are completely interrupted, Russia will not only lose Europe, the largest and most stable buyer, and a huge money tree, but also Russia will be squeezed out of the new European order.
However, from Putin's active promotion of energy to the EU, we can also interpret another signal: Putin is still running around to resolve the current and long-term difficulties Russia faces, which shows that he still maintains rationality and restraint and will not infinitely escalate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Direct news: So what kind of inspiration can this Russian-European energy trade game, especially Russia's active promotion of energy to the EU, bring us?
Special Commentator Liu Heping: In fact, whether Putin proposed to supply gas to Germany and the EU through the only remaining pipeline of "North Stream 2", or Russia proposed to build a new branch of the "Turkey Stream" pipeline and to build Turkey into a Russian-European energy supply hub, to put it bluntly, Russia does not want to lose the EU, the largest energy buyer, and has different ways to transport gas to the EU. I think there are two revelations this incident brings to us. First, in the business world, buyers and sellers are actually a community of shared future. Without buyers, there would be no sellers, and without sellers, there would be no buyers. Whether the buyer offends the seller or the seller offends the buyer, it will eventually be self-harm; second, when doing business, doing business is doing business, and do not give too many political, ideological and security factors to commercial behavior. In other words, whether it is a buyer or a seller, do not attempt to use your temporary advantage to force the other party to make concessions on political, ideological and security issues. From this perspective, it is not advisable whether it is Russia playing the energy card with the EU in the past or now the EU playing the energy card with Russia in turn. The final result will lead to both losses.
However, it is regrettable that in recent years, the phenomenon of politicizing, ideological and even militarizing business issues has become increasingly severe worldwide. And the United States is a typical example. The United States launched a trade war, technology war against China, and the latest chip ban, which are actually politicizing, ideological and even weaponizing commercial behaviors to force China to submit according to their requirements. This phenomenon not only impacted the ongoing economic globalization , destroying market trading rules, but also eventually it will definitely be a self-harm act of killing one thousand enemies, or even killing one thousand enemies, destroying one thousand themselves. From this perspective, the lessons learned from Russia-Ukraine's energy trade are worthy of serious learning by all countries, especially the United States.
Author丨Liu Heping, Shenzhen Satellite TV's "Live Broadcast Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan" special commentator
