Mr. Li said before that in this round of A shares want to bottom out and rebound, in addition to its own factors - the need for improvement in volume and new energy sector leads the rise, it also requires the recovery of the external market. It happened that A-shares were closed during the National Day holiday, but the external market did not stop. The trend of the external market will be more important for the opening of in A-shares on next Monday.
There may be many people who did not watch the market during the National Day holiday. Let’s briefly review it. Taking US stock as an example, the two gaps in large positive lines on No. 3 4 made people very excited to see it, but the market then took a sharp turn and dived on No. 6 7. The reason is that the US non-agricultural data in September was better than expected, and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.5%, maintaining a low level in the past 50 years.
Usually, the employment market is strong and the wage level rises, which is a good thing for the investment market. If you have spare money, you are willing to invest in the stock market, which may promote stock price increase. However, the current situation in the United States is that inflation is the primary problem at present. The employment market is strong and the consumer market is more active, so the inflation problem is more difficult to control. Therefore, in the face of serious inflation problems, they are unwilling to see the rise in employment levels, so the willingness to control inflation through hikes later becomes stronger. After the non-farm data was released, the probability of the Federal Reserve's rate hike of by 75 basis points in November immediately rose from 85% to 92%. The expected rate hike of by also caused pressure on the US stock market and walked out of a roller coaster decline.
If there is no bear turning to bull in the US stock market, it is actually difficult for A-shares to rebound continuously. Therefore, Mr. Li’s opinion, there is a high probability that A-shares will rebound in the first week after the opening of the A-share market next week, because after all, the National Day is welcomed with a low attitude before the festival, and historical data will have a higher probability of rising after the festival, but the sustainability and intensity of the rebound may not be too great. We should still look at the trend of the United States next week and wait and see.
