1. Saudi Arabia and Russia are interested in pushing oil prices to hundreds of dollars?
According to Cailianshe, according to reports from multiple foreign media, sources revealed that the Saudi government and the Russian government believe that the price of oil at $100 per barrel is a fair price.
Three government sources and analysts revealed that recent signals indicate that the two countries set the preferred price level of Brent crude oil between $90 and $100 per barrel, significantly higher than the previous expectations of some OPEC + observers.
media analysis said that since these two countries are the backbone members of OPEC+, they can play a significant role in the global oil supply side through the increase/reduction of production policies. Therefore, they have a considerable voice in international oil pricing. Earlier this month, seeing oil prices fall below the $90 mark, OPEC+ announced its plan to "reduce production by 100,000 barrels per day in October." Many analysts interpret the move as a signal that the organization "strives to keep oil prices above $90."
Two sources (one of them knows the discussions within the Saudi government) told the media that the oil production costs in these countries are rising as material prices rise and they need to earn higher revenues in selling oil to balance their budgets.
In OPEC+, each oil-producing country has different breakeven points, and some countries will announce their official price targets, but Saudi Arabia and Russia have not discussed related topics for a long time.
Brent oil and US oil are located near $91 and $85 per barrel respectively. There were reports during the day that the scale of oil leakage at the port of Basra, Iraq was "huge", but it was said to have been controlled and oil exports are gradually recovering.
2. How long will high oil prices last?
We see that Saudi Arabia and Russia have almost a conspiracy, and want to jointly promote international oil prices to maintain above $100. So how should we view this approach of Saudi Arabia and Russia? How should we analyze and judge the development trend of international oil prices?
First of all, for the current major oil-producing countries, it can be said that they have lived a relatively good life. In 2020, the major oil-producing countries lived a very depressed life. At that time, the pressure faced by major oil-producing countries was very huge. At that time, a barrel of oil was basically facing losses. Now, international oil prices continued to operate at a high level. For major oil-producing countries, they made a lot of money. This situation helped major oil-producing countries achieve continuous profits. Therefore, from the perspective of oil-producing countries, through the continuous high level of international oil prices, more money can be made, and naturally I hope to use high oil prices to help their own development. In this regard, whether it is , Saudi Arabia, , or Russia, the goals are the same. Only when international oil prices are running at a high level can they help themselves make more money. On this basis, it becomes natural for the two to join forces in a rare manner.
Secondly, from the perspective of market development, both Saudi Arabia and Russia are important members of OPEC+. For the OPEC+ organization, its purpose is to maintain the stability of international oil prices. If these two major member states intend to push up international oil prices, it is very likely that other OPEC+ member states will try their best to adopt a follow-up policy to further push up international oil prices. This is actually an unfavorable signal for the current market. It can be said that the current oil supply market has become an Trust monopoly pattern. In this monopoly pattern, most companies are actually facing huge pressure, and these oil-producing countries have already achieved monopoly control of prices through conspiracy, which is also an important reason for the current continued high international oil prices.
3. From the perspective of long-term market development, we have always said that the people in the whole world are in a state of relatively contradictory supply and demand, especially this winter may be particularly cold. Under such circumstances, the demand for energy will undoubtedly further increase. From the perspective of market development, once the demand for international energy is further increased, and these major oil-producing countries are trying every means to increase market prices, they are likely to jointly promote international oil prices to develop in a higher direction, which is a matter that is not conducive to the long-term development of the entire market. However, we must also understand that the current trend of high energy prices has actually formed. We must make up our minds to continuously develop new energy that we can control and replace traditional dependence on energy through new energy. Only in this way can we promote the further development of our own energy security.
