Not long ago, when Putin participated in the SCO summit , he said that in the past few decades, the West has always had the idea of breaking up Russia and wanted Russia to disintegrate like the Soviet Union, so that it would not threaten their interests. He also said that he would do everything possible to make the Russian-Ukrainian conflict end as soon as possible. Just as I finished talking about it, the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield ushered in a new turning point. Many eastern Ukraine regions have successively announced that they will hold a referendum to join Russia. Before the official referendum, Putin made a big move.
Recently, Putin delivered a national speech, which was the first time since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. On TV, he said that the goal of military operations remains unchanged, and that the first "partial mobilization order" after World War II will be launched, and partial mobilization will be carried out in Russia, and hundreds of thousands of troops will be added. But not everyone can be mobilized. Only Russian citizens who have experience in serving the armed forces and have certain relevant experience have the opportunity to enter the mobilized list. And before deploying them to the army, they will be trained to a certain extent. They will be given armed identities along with the "volunteers" currently fighting in the Donbass area.
At such a critical moment, Putin initiated some mobilization, which was obviously to make some adjustments to the current situation and strengthen the Russian military's frontline strength. Now, is this move to annex Ukraine or overthrow Zelensky ? Perhaps none of them. In contact with previous news, Russia's ultimate goal is to promote the fact that some regions are separated from Ukraine as soon as possible.
Of course, Putin's move at this time was not good, but he had no choice. After all, Ukraine, who thought she would not last long, had lasted until now, and Russia's pre-war preparations could no longer support the subsequent actions. If we don’t mobilize, we will lose all the money. Looking at the consequences of laughter from the American group of people, we cannot explain to the people in the country. This is the most unacceptable ending for Putin. If a nationwide mobilization is launched, it means that Putin will put all the remaining treasures of Russia on the gambling table. Not only is the risk too high, but it also exposed that he has used the 20 years to rank second in the world in the world's strength and lead the fact that he can even fight Ukraine to a 50-50 level, which is even hard to explain. I had to take the intermediate value between the two and initiate such mobilization, but not completely mobilized.
The so-called "drawing the bow without turning back" is called Putin, so he can only choose to mobilize. After all, it has been fighting for so long, so it is impossible to stop now. If he stops, what should he do if these areas that immediately enter the Russian referendum? Since we have already said that we have supported their referendum, we must take corresponding measures and cooperate with them. In addition, mobilization can also let the West know about Russia's tough attitude.
However, it is not known how much chance of winning can mobilize Russia increase. Although hundreds of thousands of people can indeed make up for the gap in insufficient troops, the corresponding weapons and equipment may not be able to keep up. Also, the combat effectiveness of the soldiers mobilized later is definitely insufficient, and how much role it can play in the cruel battlefield will take time to verify. However, it cannot be said that Putin's mobilization plan this time is indesirable. At least it can familiarize the new recruits with the battlefield and better prepare for the winter war. Of course, this also means that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has entered a new stage, because Russia is investing more manpower and financial resources in the war in Russia-Ukraine. The investment cost of this war has exceeded Putin's initial expectations, and he can only maintain his advantage by increasing his investment. Although I don’t know when the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will end, what is certain is that the conflict will be even more tragic in the future. (Zhou Shuang)
