soybean/meal
[Foreign market impact]
cbot soybean index rose 1.64% to 943.75 cents/pit, and the US soybean meal index rose 0.97% to close at US$302/short ton.
[Important Information]
1. Customs: In July 2020, the import volume of soybeans was 10091369.54 tons, a decrease of 9.58% from the previous month and an increase of 16.79% from the same period last year. Among them, China imported 8177,767.06 tons of soybeans from Brazil in July, an increase of 27.35% year-on-year and a decrease of 22.21% month-on-month. China imported 38,331 tons of soybeans from the United States in July, a sharp drop of 95.80% year-on-year and a sharp drop of 85.67% month-on-month;
2.USDA: As of the week ending August 20, 2020, US soybean exports increased by 50,400 tons, and 1.87 million tons of new exports in 20/21;
3.Bloomberg: On August 26, according to people familiar with the matter, China may purchase 40 million tons of US soybeans in 2020, an increase of about 25% compared with the benchmark year of the "first phase" trade agreement between the United States and China in 2017 and about 10% compared with the record level in 2016. However, stoneX analysts believe that the largest monthly shipment volume of the United States in the fall is 7.5-8 million tons, so it is expected that China will purchase US soybeans annually. In addition, under the expectation of a bumper production of new products in Brazil, Chinese buyers have no motivation to purchase US soybeans in Q4, so it is expected that the annual purchase volume will be difficult to reach 40 million tons. AgRural analyst Daniele Siqueira said that China's procurement of US soybeans may continue until January of the following year, because Brazil's export of soybeans to the outside world will still be mainly in stocks of old products before January 2021, while the current low inventory will limit exports. In addition, other analysts say that the drought in Brazil may cause delays in seeds.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: US soybean sales data boosted, and the recent supply-side positive news broke out, US soybeans and domestic soybean meal strengthened significantly unilaterally. Pay attention to US soybeans 950 cents, soybean meal 01 contract pressure level;
2. Arbitrage: Bean rapeseed 2011 price spread, rapeseed meal 15 reversed, soybean meal 15 reversed;
3. Options: Even if the weather pressure is high, the expectations of US soybean production will be difficult to change, and it is difficult for soybean meal to rise again. Spot unilateral benefits can participate in hedging at high prices, buy m2101-p-2900 and sell m2101-c-3050 and sell m2101-p-2800. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
oil sector
[Foreign market impact]
Cbot US soybean oil main force rose 3% to 33.46 cents/pound; the BMD index rose 1.2% to 2,664 ringgit.
[Important News]
1. Oil World: Gujarat will usher in super-heavy rainfall in the next few days, which will be conducive to the growth of oilseed crops, but it is currently worried that excess rainfall may damage the yield of oilseeds such as soybeans.
2. Oil World: China's eight vegetable oil imports in July reached 1.24 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9%. Among them, the import volume of soybean oil exceeded market expectations and reached a five-year import high, mainly from South American countries. In addition to importing 106,000 tons of rapeseed oil from Canada, it also imported a large amount of rapeseed oil from France, Germany and other EU countries in July.
3. Due to the tight domestic soybean oil supply in Brazil, the Brazilian government will reduce the mandatory blending standard of raw wood from September to October from B11 to B10, and the lower blending volume will continue until the end of the year.
4. In July, Argentina's oilseed press dropped to 3.75 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from the previous year, of which soybean press dropped to only 3.5 million tons. Farmers’ reluctance to sell is the main constraint, and suppressing squeeze is below the potential level.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: Overnight soybean oil hit a new high, which is stronger than expected. Soybean oil has a long wait for a pullback in its thinking; palm oil still looks at fluctuations in the general trend, and it is not recommended to chase the rise; rapeseed oil and rapeseed stocks are accumulated, and the recent trend will continue to be weaker than yp.
2. Arbitrage: The expansion of yp01's short-term take-profit exit, but the medium- and long-term trend remains unchanged. In the future, you can wait for the low level to intervene again; continue to hold the narrowing of the price spread of soybean oil.
3. Options: Because the phased high points may have appeared, but the downward trend may not be smooth and the volatility has declined slightly, you can consider selling call options for palm oil. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
corn/corn starch
[Important information]
1. The total transaction rate of the 14th auction was 88.92%, and the transaction rates in 2015, 2016 and 2018 were 100%, 87.12%, and 50.38%, respectively. All transactions were still low in 2015. Compared with last week, the overall premium fell by 61.48 yuan/ton in 2015, and the premium dropped significantly. The auction will continue, and the enthusiasm for participating in the auction has cooled significantly.
2. Affected by the cooling of the auction, the transaction of second-class corn grain in Guangdong Port on the 27th was lowered to 2,330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from yesterday.
3.28 The 430 vehicles arrived in Shandong in the morning decreased by 23 compared with yesterday, and the purchase price of deep processing was partially lowered. The mainstream price of new grain in Jinzhou Port is 2230-2240 yuan/ton, which is the same.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: The auction premium has dropped sharply, and the futures price still has room for a fall.
2. Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening of the price spread of starch corn.
3. Options: Pay attention to bear market spread options. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Egg
[Important Information]
1. Spot Quotation: The national market was stable and rising yesterday, and the main sales area Beijing and Shanghai continued to rise in Guangdong. The price of the main egg production area was 3.72 yuan/jin, up 0.06 from the previous trading day, and the price of the main sales area was 3.99 yuan/jin, up 0.13 from the previous trading day. The markets around Beijing in the production area continued to rise as Beijing stabilized, and the areas where goods in the central region rose slightly. The areas where goods in the Northeast market normal carton sales were normal, most areas were stabilizing, while the market continued to be faster, most areas were rising, and most areas were stable. The national situation of eliminating chickens was stable and declining yesterday, and the number of eliminating chickens in various places increased slightly, with an overall range of 5-6.3 yuan/jin. Today, the spot quotation of eggs is generally stable, the price of eggs in Beijing is generally stable, the arrival of the market in Beijing Dayang Road is normal, and the goods are shipped normally, and the quotation is 175-180 yuan per piece, which is basically the same as yesterday, and the price of eggs in Shanghai remains stable.
2. According to Zhuochuang data, there were 1.88 days left in the production session on August 20, a decrease of 0.3 days from the previous week and an increase of 0.84 days from the same period last year. On August 20, there were 1.18 days left in the circulation session, a decrease of 0.29 days from the previous week and an increase of 0.38 days from the same period last year.
3. The number of laying chickens in the main production areas in the week of August 21 was 17.13 million, a slight decrease of 0.18% from last week and a year-on-year decrease of 57.8%. The national elimination chicken age increased slightly on August 20th, and the elimination chicken age in that week was 493 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week. Judging from the increasing age of Taoji, the market is feeling a little bit more privation, but it is expected that Taoji will be more active in the next few weeks.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: The spot price of eggs has continued to rise recently. Currently, the contract price in September is at a historical low. With the recent strengthening of spot prices, egg futures prices have bottomed out and rebounded recently. However, it is necessary to consider the contract position restrictions and liquidity issues in September.
2. Arbitrage: It is recommended to go long for the 9-1 spread, but consider the position limit of the September contract.
3. Options: It is recommended that you consider buying a call option for January imaginary value. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
sugar
[Important information]
1. Mutian reported on July 27 that my country imported 70,000 tons of syrup, an increase of 60,900 tons year-on-year and 2,600 tons month-on-month. From January to July 2020, my country imported a total of 541,200 tons of syrup, an increase of 495,100 tons year-on-year. As of the end of July, my country imported 636,100 tons of syrup, an increase of 583,500 tons year-on-year. On
2.27, Zhengsugar Futures continued to rise. In the peak demand in the traditional peak season, the focus of transactions is still moving upward. The market trading atmosphere is active, but it shrinks compared with yesterday's transactions. I heard that a large terminal company has increased its orders, but the transaction price is significantly lower than the current market price. According to Cofeed's statistics, a total of 7 groups sold in Guangxi and Yunnan were 36,300 tons (including 23,800 tons in Guangxi and 12,500 tons in Yunnan), a decrease of 40,200 tons from the previous day. On
3.27, the average ex-factory price of sugar was 5,395 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous day. The first-level sugar quotation in Guangxi is between 5330 and 5390 yuan/ton, up 10-20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the pickup quotation in Kunming in Yunnan is between 5290 and 5330 yuan/ton, and the pickup of Dali is between 5260 and 5280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the pickup in Guangdong is between 5230 and 5250 yuan/ton.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: stocking for the two quarters boosts consumption, fluctuates and rebounds, and long positions take the 5-day line as the stop loss level.
2. Arbitrage: Pay attention to 15 regular sets.
3. Options: Buy call options. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Cotton-Cotton Yarn
[Foreign market impact]
Overnight ICE US cotton price fluctuates slightly lower, with the main contract falling 0.06 (-0.09%) to 65.48 cents/pound.
[Important Information]
1. On August 27, the reserve cotton wheel sales resources were 9981.435 tons, and the actual transaction was 9981.435 tons, with a transaction rate of 100%.The average transaction price is 11,966 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton from the previous day, and a decrease of 3,128 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average transaction price of Xinjiang cotton was 12,148 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of Xinjiang cotton was 13,470 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price increase of Xinjiang cotton was 1,382 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of real estate cotton is 11,695 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The real estate cotton is 3,128 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price increase of real estate cotton is 1,203 yuan/ton. The total transaction volume of the cumulative transaction volume from July 1 to August 27 was 363,291 tons, with a transaction rate of 100%.
2. Last week, Indian cotton companies sold large-scale cotton stocks for 2018/19 and 2019/20, and were sold in large quantities when spot prices rose. Since CCI started selling, the average spot price of S-6 has risen by more than 400 points. As of now, CCI has sold more than 5.5 million bags (including exports to Bangladesh), which means that CCI has sold more than 60% of its stock cotton without any effort, and the price has risen all the way and has not encountered any pressure of price decline.
3. In the past week, although cotton merchants' quotations have generally been stable, cotton merchants are still willing to raise discounts to reach a deal. The basis of the Australian cotton SM 1-5/32 G5 is 1250-1300 points, and the transaction volume is not large, but Indonesia does have purchases at this price. Brazil's cotton basis weakened overall, with the basis of shipment period of September being 300 points, and both Indonesia and South Korea have purchases. Overall, the transaction price of Asia's main port is between 60-65 cents, and the lower rating is between 55-60 cents. Low-grade American cotton prices outside China are very low. At present, the first phase of the Sino-US agreement has been well implemented, providing support for ICE futures, but the spot basis of non-US cotton continues to weaken, and the actual transaction price remains stable.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: The supply and demand side of cotton is gradually improving, the transaction of reserve cotton continues to improve, and the long-term price center of gravity is moving upward. You can consider building long positions with the 20-day moving average, closing positions at a high level, and operating ranges. The trend of cotton yarn follows the trend of cotton.
2. Arbitrage: wait and see.
3. Options: Buy the January contract call option and buy CF2101-C-13400.
4. Futures and Spot: The difference between cotton futures prices and spot prices is small, and the supply of cotton is sufficient. It is recommended to use it as you like. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market)
