1. Rabobank analyst Jane Foley: Although delaying Brexit may ease concerns among pound investors, the euro may find it difficult to fall below 0.90 in three months; if the pound leaves the EU without a deal, the euro will have room to rise to parity.
2. Neil Jones, a foreign exchange trader at Ruisui Bank, said that he does not believe that the Irish guarantee agreement will have a positive impact on the pound in the near future. Obviously, the market is just reducing short positions and resolute hedging. We estimate that bearish sentiment remains dominant for the long term, and it is recommended that the market reassess the comments made by Merkel and Macron on the Irish guarantee agreement this week.
3. The report released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday (August 23) showed that as of the week ending August 14 to August 20: Speculators' speculative net short positions in the pound decreased by 3,402 lots to 92,418 lots, indicating that investors' willingness to bear the pound cooled down.
4. UOB released a research report saying that the consolidation of the pound against the US dollar is expected to continue, but it is believed that it will gradually approach around 1.2380 at the top of the volatility range. We have warned that "the probability of further weakening of the pound is decreasing. The key resistance of rising above 1.2195 will imply that the negative market that started at the end of July has ended, and the pound will fluctuate upward afterward. After many days of 'indecision', the pound has successfully captured the key resistance of 1.2195." Despite this, the surge of 1.10% on Thursday (the largest single-day increase in about 4 months) is also very surprising. At present, we believe that this big increase is still part of the consolidation market, even if the rapid rise makes the pound likely to measure the top of the 1.2150/1.2380 volatility range in the next few days or weeks.
5. As of the trading day on August 23, the euro trading volume was 214,554 lots, an increase of 16,095 lots from the previous trading day; the open positions were 506,060 lots, a decrease of 16,897 lots from the previous trading day; the British pound trading volume was 124,312 lots, a decrease of 31,039 lots from the previous trading day; the open positions were 267,494 lots, an increase of 1,519 lots from the previous trading day; the Japanese yen trading volume was 186,141 lots, an increase of 87,595 lots from the previous trading day; the open positions were 146,621 lots, a decrease of 1,233 lots from the previous trading day.
[GBP exchange rate quote]
1. The latest quotation for GBP exchange rate
As of press time, 1 US dollar is exchanged for US$1.2270, 1 GBP 1.6324 Canadian dollars, 1 GBP 1.1010 euros, 1 GBP 129.1680 yen, 1 GBP 1.1965 Swiss franc, 1 GBP 1.8225 Australian dollars, 1 GBP 1.9233 NZD, and 1 GBP 8.7658 RMB.
2. Bank of China Foreign Exchange Price
| Code | Name | Cash Buy Price | Cash Buy Price | Cash Buy Price | Cash Sell Price | Cash Sell Price | Cash Sell Price | Update Time |
| BOCZAR | South African Rand (ZAR) | 46.34 | 42.78 | 46.66 | 50.22 | 2019/8/26 13:32 | ||
| BOCUSD | USD (USD) | 713.06 | 707.26 | 716.08 | 716.08 | 2019/8/26 13:32 | ||
| BOCTWD | New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) | - | 21.91 | - | - | - | 23.63 | 2019/8/26 13:32 |
| BOCTHB | Thai baht (THB) | 23.28 | 22.56 | 23.46 | 24.18 | 2019/8/26 13:32 | ||
| BOCSGD | Singapore Dollar (SGD) | 512.42 | 496.61 | 516.02 | 517.56 | 2019/8/26 13:32 | ||
| BOCSEK | Swedish Krona (SEK) | 73.82 | 71.54 | 74.42 | 74.62 | 2019/8/26 13:32 | ||
| BOCRUB | ruble (RUB) | 10.75 | 10.09 | 10.83 | 11.24 | 2019/8/26 13:37 | ||
| BOCNZD | New Zealand dollar (NZD) | 454.12 | 440.11 | 457.32 | 462.92 | 2019/8/26 13:32 | ||
| BOCNOK | Norwegian kroner (NOK) | 79.14 | 76.7 | 79.78 | 80 | 2019/8/26 13:37 | ||
| BOCMYR | Malaysian yuan (MYR) | 170.52 | - | - | 172.06 | - | - | 2019/8/26 13:37 |
| BOCMOP | AUD (MOP) | 88.39 | 85.42 | 88.74 | 91.58 | 2019/8/26 13:32 | ||
| BOCKRW | Korea won (KRW) | 0.5843 | 0.5637 | 0.5889 | 0.6104 | 2019/8/26 13:37 | ||
| BOCJPY | yen (JPY) | 6.7628 | 6.5527 | 6.8126 | 6.8163 | 2019/8/26 13:32 | ||
| BOCHKD | HKD) | 90.91 | 90.19 | 91.27 | 91.27 | 2019/8/26 13:37 | ||
| BOCGBP | GBP (GBP) | 873.8 | 846.65 | 880.24 | 882.38 | 2019/8/26 13:37 | ||
| BOCEUR | Euro (EUR) | 793.52 | 768.86 | 799.37 | 801.15 | 2019/8/26 13:32 | ||
| BOCDKK | Danish kroner (DKK) | 106.34 | 103.06 | 107.2 | 107.5 | 2019/8/26 13:32 | ||
| BOCCHF | Swiss franc (CHF) | 729.93 | 707.4 | 735.05 | 737.47 | 2019/8/26 13:32 | ||
| BOCCAD | Canadian dollar (CAD) | 535.18 | 518.28 | 539.13 | 540.43 | 2019/8/26 13:32 | ||
| BOCAUD | Australian Dollar (AUD) | 479.43 | 464.54 | 482.96 | 484.14 | 2019/8/26 13:32 |
[GBP Exchange Rate Trend]
GBP/USD Weekly Chart
GBP/USD: On the weekly chart, last week (8.19-8.23), GBP/USD continued its rebound trend and closed the positive line, with the intraday high point of 1.2294 and the lowest point of 1.2065, closing at 1.2266, an increase of 0.96% during the week. Judging from the K-line trend, the short-term pound sterling may continue to rebound against the US dollar to challenge the pressure on the 1.2706 line. With medium and long-term card, market shorts dominate, and the pound against the US dollar is likely to continue the downward main trend. From a morphological perspective, the US is currently in a pullback process of a converging triangle pattern, and there is still room for rebound in the future. Judging from the moving average trend, MA5 and MA10 form dead cross shrinkage, and short-term market short-term market short-term sentiment fades; MACD yellow and white lines form halved cross shrinkage below the 0 axis, and the green column shrinks. Overall, the probability of the pound continuing to rebound against the US dollar this week is high, and the top is concerned about the pressure on the 1.2706 line.If the US breaks through the upper pressure, the market will continue to pay attention to the 1.3298 line of pressure in the future; if it cannot break through, the US will likely pull back in the short term to test the 1.2015 line of support.
pound against RMB weekly chart
pound against RMB: On the weekly chart, last week (8.19-8.23) pound continued to rebound against RMB and closed the positive line, with the intraday high point of 8.7094 and the lowest point of 8.5178, closing at 8.7078, an increase of 1.78% during the week. Judging from the K-line trend, the market closed for three consecutive positives in the past three weeks, and the market bulls currently dominate, and the probability of the pound continuing to rebound against the RMB in the short term is relatively high. In the medium and long term, the pound sterling and RMB have maintained a low box consolidation overall, and the market has no clear directional choices. Judging from the moving average trend, MA5 and MA10 form a dead cross and shrinkage volume, and short-term market short-term market sentiment weakens; MACD yellow and white lines form a golden cross below the 0 axis, and the green column turns red. Overall, the probability of the pound continuing its rebound trend against the RMB this week is relatively high, and the top is concerned about the 8.7883 front line pressure. On the general trend, if there is no new fundamental stimulation, the probability of the plate maintaining the overall pattern of the box is relatively high. If the pound breaks through the upper pressure against the RMB, the future market will continue to pay attention to the 8.9655 line of pressure; if it cannot break through, the short-term market trend is likely to pull back to the 8.4205 line of support.
Source: Zhongyi Finance Network
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