pound trend is currently at the weakest stage of this time of year. The pound hit a two-year low against the dollar this month and set its record-longest weekly decline against the euro. The pound has depreciated by 4% in the past three months, making it the worst performing major currency.
And if history is learned, the pound prospects may get worse in August.
seasonal pattern shows that over the past five years, the pound has fallen against the US dollar every August, and against the euro in August four of the years. Mitsubishi Japanese-United Nations strategist Lee Hardman said that a risk-averse trading environment will occur in August.
In August this year, investors will encounter the successor of Prime Minister Theresa May, who is likely to select a new Treasury Secretary and raise the prospects for Brexit without a Brexit agreement.
RBC Chief Forex strategist Adam Cole said that the market generally traded lightly in August, so the trend would be exaggerated. In any case, there are many things that worry us in August: the new prime minister will take office and the Brexit deadline is approaching on October 31.
ING Groep NV strategist Chris Turner said the pound could fall to £0.92 by September or the end of October, saying that Johnson could not reach a new deal with Brussels and faced a no-deal Brexit as it entered the fall.
Source: Global Forex Network
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