Two days ago we talked to you about India's economy. India's economy has indeed made great progress over the years. This year, India's economy finally surpassed its former suzerain country, Britain, and became the top five in the world. In fact, this achievement is achieved between the rise and fall of one person, and it is certainly because of the strength of the Indian economy, and it is also because of the weakness of the British economy.
The British economy has encountered a lot of bad news over the past period of time. The overall economic volume of is lower than that of India. This is just one of them. After all, it is just statistically not going to make the British feel pain. However, the next two figures will definitely have a huge impact on the daily lives of the British. One is the inflation index. The UK's CPI index exceeded 10% last month, which is the country with the highest inflation index so far among developed countries.
We have been calling for more than half a year in the United States that shocked inflation , but the inflation in the United States has just broken 9, but the UK is a real double-digit number. As prices soar, the people have suffered a lot of pain, so some people say that the British economy is so collapsed. Will it be expelled from clubs in developed countries?
not only has high inflation, but also a problem of exchange rate reduction. Last month we knew that the US dollar had completely higher than the euro, and this trend will intensify in the future. In the next few years, the euro may not return to a higher position than the US dollar. Then the next one is the British pound.
1 pound today is less than 8 RMB, but do you know that just 5 years ago, 10 years ago, 1 pound can be discounted by 14 RMB, which is simply a halved exchange rate. Not only has the pound dropped sharply against the RMB, but the pound fell sharply against the US dollar. Today, 1 pound can only be converted to 1.14 US dollars, which is a new low since 1985.
Many people say that if this trend continues, the pound will probably tie the US dollar next year. You should know that when the euro and pound are falling at the same time against the US dollar, the pound will fall faster, which shows that everyone is even more optimistic about the British economy. So we say that India's economy surpasses its suzerain country. This is certainly the reason why Indians are striving to strengthen, but it is also the reason why the British are too overwhelmed.
The UK economy is not strong, which is caused by many factors. First of all, we have to realize that the entire world economic pattern has undergone profound changes. Europe is no longer the state with the strongest economy in the world. In the past few hundred years of history, Europe has always been the most developed place in the world. Europe was the first to break out of the industrial revolution , and Europe's system European economy leads the world.
However, today the world situation has undergone tremendous changes. Today, three of the top five countries in the world's economy are Asian countries, one of which is the American country. Only Germany has barely left a little face for Europe and ranks fourth in the world.
However, India said that their next goal to surpass is Germany. When the euro was just released more than 20 years ago, the entire EU economy was far stronger than the United States. Therefore, Europeans want the United States to create a dollar because of its strong economy, which is the world's universal currency. When we pick up the group, our economy is stronger than the United States, so we have to compete with the US dollar and become the global universal currency.
However, on the one hand, it is because its own economy is not good, and on the other hand, the United States cannot sit idly by and watch the US dollar lose its dominant position. Therefore, under a series of measures by the United States, the euro not only did not gain the status of the global common currency, but even the entire EU economy has not only failed to catch up with the United States but also cannot catch up with my country.
As we have analyzed with you in previous programs, my country's economy has certainly been making rapid progress in the past 20 years, but in fact, the US economy has grown very fast. The economic growth of China and the United States accounts for about 80% to 90% of the world's total. This is really a world of G2.Some of the remaining 10% to 20% of economic growth are emerging developing countries , such as Vietnam , and India, but the share left to Europe is extremely small.
In the past, we often said that the Japanese economy was lost for 20 years and lost for 30 years, because 30 years ago, the total amount of GDP in Japan was 5 trillion US dollars, but today it is still 5 trillion US dollars. But for the whole of Europe, how much have they grown in the past 20 years? The number is very small, which means that the British economy is not good because it is in a bad environment, and the entire European economy is extremely collapsed.
But of course, some countries are not bad. For example, under the leadership of Merkel, Germany's economy has resumed growth and has become the leader of the European continent, but the British economy is really not good. Why? Because the UK has also made major mistakes in many policies, such as Brexit. For more than three years, the UK has repeatedly recurred on the issue of Brexit. Although it has completely left the EU today, according to some British people, they have lost such a huge economic burden as Europe, has the British economy improved?
Why did the British leave the EU? It was because they also realized that the economy of the entire European continent is getting worse and worse, and the EU is constantly expanding. Many countries that have entered the EU are poor countries and weak countries. According to the EU rules, each country joining the alliance pays 1% of GDP every year as membership fees. After collecting this membership fee, it is quite similar to the transfer payment of in some unified countries. What does
mean? Rich regions pay more taxes. After receiving these taxes, the central government will subsidize , old, young, and poor regions, , so that they can develop their economy. The EU sometimes plays such a role, collecting taxes from wealthy countries such as Britain, France and Germany, and then transfer payments to some new countries that join the alliance and some countries with poor economies.
So some British people were unhappy, saying that we had to pay 500 billion euros a year, but all of this money was used to support poor, weak and small countries. What's more important is that many countries in Europe have very high welfare, so the British said that this is equivalent to using the money we have worked hard to collect taxes to support those EU lazy people. Therefore, 55% of the people in the UK demanded a Brexit.
However, Brexit is not without a price. Although you have to pay a lot of membership fees every year to join the EU, the problem is that you have also obtained the entire European market. Just like for Germany, it is the strongest country in Europe and pays the most membership fees, but the entire German industrial products can be sold in large quantities in European countries without any tariff barriers. Without a large market like Europe supporting it, how could the German economy develop? Therefore, Brexit is obviously beneficial and disadvantageous for the UK.
But why did the UK firmly choose to leave the EU later? Because the Americans told it that it was okay, you should get rid of it quickly. If you leave the EU, I will sign the UK-US free trade agreement with you, and I will give you the entire US market of more than 300 million people. You should know that Americans have very strong consumption power. Today, the United States is still the largest consumer goods retail market in the world, so the British feel that it doesn’t matter if they leave Europe, and the big brother of the United States is protecting me.
However, it has been more than three years since Brexit, and the UK-US Free Trade Agreement has not been signed yet. In other words, the UK has lost the European market and increased tariffs, and it has not ushered in a larger US market. On the other hand, we know that since the end of World War II , the UK has always mentioned special relations between Britain and the United States in terms of foreign policy. Britain's independence is far worse than France and Germany. Basically, the United States fully complies with the conditions that the United States proposes, and even does it more ruthlessly than the United States.
Through this Russian-Ukrainian war, we can see British Prime Minister Johnson visited Kiev twice. The UK gave the most support for Ukrainian .However, does the UK know the importance of Russia to the entire Europe? It is precisely because of the sanctions imposed by the United States and the West on Russia that energy prices soared today, causing the entire Europe to lose blood, resulting in the UK finally ushering in double-digit inflation.
However, there is no way. Sanctions against Russia are established by the big brother of the United States. Therefore, even if its own economy is damaged, the UK will do this. It not only treats Russia but also China. In fact, before Trump came to power, the UK had a good relationship with my country. At that time, the UK even claimed to be the most pro-China country in the entire EU.
However, when the United States' policy toward China changed, the United Kingdom immediately followed suit. Even a few days ago, there was news that under the pressure of American officials, the British government made a decision that year to ban the use of Huawei products. In fact, for the whole of the UK, Huawei products with high quality and low price are particularly suitable for them. Although the UK is a former capitalist , its infrastructure is also very unsuccessful.
has entered a new era. The UK's large-scale update of infrastructure was originally a good thing to cooperate with China, and it was a solution with the best of both worlds. However, in order to follow the United States to suppress China in the international community, the UK has become increasingly anti-China in recent years, so of course the British economy will suffer a lot of losses.
You should know that although India's economy has become stronger and stronger over the years, our country's economy is even stronger. You no longer do business with the fastest-growing country in the world. As some British people clamor for, the so-called decoupling from the Chinese economy is a good thing for the British economy?
It is not only an economic problem, but the UK will encounter more difficulties in the future. What? The division of the country was just over two months ago. The new British Prime Minister was finally elected. Many British people breathed a sigh of relief. The new Prime Minister was not an Indian, otherwise the British people would receive two bad news at the same time. One was that the Indian economy surpassed the British, and the other was that the Indians took over the British Empire .
However, after the new prime minister was elected, the queen should traditionally meet the old and new prime ministers in London, make a replacement of the old and new ones and then formally appoint the prime minister. However, this time the queen did not appoint a new prime minister in London, but appointed a new prime minister in her vacation estate in Scotland . Why is there such a special arrangement?
Some people say that the Queen actually has a profound meaning in appointing a new prime minister in Scotland, that is, the Queen wants to maintain the unity of the country, because the UK is really facing a very serious separatist crisis. The independent party in Scotland has already grasped the local government, and people have said that another referendum on leaving the UK will be held next year.
About seven or eight years ago, Scotland held a referendum on leaving the UK, but that time, with the help of the whole UK, the majority of people finally chose to stay in the UK. This time, the situation was actually very bad. Multiple polls showed that more than 55% of the Scots said that they wanted to leave the UK and independent, and some Scots said it was clear that they chose to stay in the UK because the UK was an EU member state, and staying in the UK was beneficial to developing the Scottish economy.
And today with the UK, Scotland has lost the EU market, so for Scotland, the best choice is to leave Britain and rejoin the EU as an independent country. Time is approaching day by day, and the Scotland independence referendum is about to begin next year. For the Queen, she may be considering whether it is possible to appoint a new British prime minister on Scotland's land to play a symbolic role, and to retain the Scottish people's hearts, hoping that the future UK will not fall apart.
Because in the future, it is not only Scotland that tends to be independent, but also Northern Ireland . In history, Northern Ireland had a strong tendency to be independent. Decades ago, there were often various terrorist attacks. Northern Ireland hopes to merge with its compatriots next to it into a country.
And the UK's Brexit has exacerbated this process. Why? Because there is no hard land border between Northern Ireland and Ireland, people in these two countries have been able to circulate freely for a long time. However, today the UK is not a member of the EU, but Ireland is still a member of the EU, which has caused a lot of trouble. Therefore, many people predict that if Scotland succeeds in depriving Britain and independence, it is very likely that Northern Ireland will become the next one. If Northern Ireland also succeeds in independence, of course, the so-called hard land border problem will be solved.
However, there are only 4 components in the UK in total. If these two are lost, how many British Empire will still have? So the problems facing the UK in the future are not only the severe domestic inflation, economic recession, and the depreciation of the local currency in , but also the more serious problem of national division. In the future, it may not be just the question of whether the UK will be removed from the clubs of developed countries. Many people even say that a UK with a split economy is declining, and a UK that is no longer a member of the EU. What qualifications does it have to be one of the Five Constables of the United Nations?
There are even many Indians who say that India and Britain were one of the same families in history. Although India was a colony, they were also one of the members of the British Empire. Is it possible that one day in the future India will replace the position of the United Nations Five Constables?
You should know why Russia took over the Soviet Union after the collapse of ? Because Russia had the strongest economic strength among the 15 republics . Also, when the United Nations was founded in 1945, the British Empire had the position of permanent member of the United Nations. At that time, the British Empire included both today's Britain and today's India. So if anyone who is strong takes over, will India succeed in the future?
