Original title: Xinhua Finance | On July 12, domestic gasoline and diesel prices are expected to experience "two consecutive declines" this cycle. As concerns about oil demand rise, exceeding concerns about tight supply, international oil prices have seen a significant correction

Original title: Xinhua Finance 丨Domestic gasoline and diesel prices are expected to see "two consecutive drops" on July 12

Xinhua News Agency Beijing, July 11 (Dong Shishan) This cycle (since June 28), due to oil demand Concerns at the domestic level have intensified, going beyond worries about supply constraints, and international oil prices have experienced a significant correction. Affected by this, domestic refined oil prices are expected to experience "two consecutive drops" at 24:00 on July 12. It is temporarily expected that the prices of gasoline and diesel will be reduced by about 330 yuan per ton, which is equivalent to a reduction of 0.26 per liter for 92# gasoline and 0# diesel. yuan, 0.28 yuan.

In response to the continued rising inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve and other central banks have entered an interest rate hike cycle, and interest rate hikes have been vigorous. At the same time, as the market is reassessing the outlook for oil demand, international oil prices have fallen sharply recently. On July 5, oil prices fell by more than 8% in a single day. As of the close of trading on July 6, the main contract prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures had both fallen by more than 20% from the high point on March 8 this year. However, judging from the performance of the crude oil spot market, tensions in oil supply still exist, and subsequently international oil prices stopped falling and rebounded.

Affected by the correction of international oil prices, the change rate of a basket of crude oil prices this cycle has turned from positive to negative, and the negative range has continued to expand in recent days. Data released by Xinhua News Agency's oil price system on July 11 showed that the average price change rate of a basket of crude oil on July 8 was -4.74%. Based on this calculation, it is expected that domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced at 24:00 on July 12. This will be the third reduction in the retail price limit of refined oil this year and the first "two consecutive reductions". The extent of the reduction is temporarily expected. It is about 330 yuan per ton.

The average price change rate of a basket of crude oil since this cycle released by the Xinhua News Agency’s oil price system

Data source: China Natural Gas Information Terminal (E-Gas System)

Since this year, the domestic retail price limit of refined oil has gone through 12 price adjustment windows, which is 10 There were two increases and two decreases. After the increases and decreases were offset, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices increased by a cumulative 2,400 yuan and 2,310 yuan per ton respectively.

In the domestic wholesale market, due to the expected reduction in retail prices, downstream players have taken a wait-and-see attitude towards the market outlook. The wholesale market for gasoline and diesel has recently weakened, and the market transaction atmosphere has been relatively light. China's gasoline and diesel wholesale prices jointly released by China Economic Information Service , China Petroleum Economic and Technology Research Institute, and Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Trading Center show that on July 8, the average wholesale price of 92# gasoline and diesel (including low pouring point) nationwide The prices are 9,515 yuan/ton and 8,587 yuan/ton respectively, down 104 yuan/ton and 80 yuan/ton respectively from June 29 (the first working day after the last round of price adjustment).

Looking forward to the market outlook, although oil demand is expected to be lowered, the current tight supply situation is difficult to alleviate in the short term. Many oil-producing countries have difficulties in increasing production capacity due to insufficient investment. OPEC+ production increase plans are also difficult to implement. Libya, Ecuador Oil-producing countries such as , Norway and other oil-producing countries have recently experienced some production interruptions. Taken together, it is expected that the center of international oil prices will move downwards, but the support below still exists, which may limit the downward space of oil prices.

Source: Xinhua News Agency